Kenya Talks

by **my2cents** » Fri Sep 21, 2012 7:49 am

In 2007 the total votes cast was about 9.8 M. 40% of which is just 3.9 M.

The total GEMA votes cast in Central, Upper Eastern, RV, Nairobi, Coast and the rest of diaspora was about 2.9M. The remaining 1M votes represents Non-Gema votes from the rest of the regions.

pajero wrote:40% is not something easily achievable the way you want to put it,Even when he ran in 2002 with half kikuyu and full kalenjin support he didnt achieve 30%.

When you talk of 40%,in absolute numbers,its 5 million of the registered population.Now can you go ahead and break the 5 million by tribe then we see where Uhuru is getting the 40% in the first round.Central as a whole has 1.9 registered,RV has 0.6 registered kikuyus,where are the other 2.5 million coming from??????

Dont just use numbers for the sake of it.

by **pajero** » Fri Sep 21, 2012 7:53 am

We are not talking of 2007 numbers,i doubt even if that register still exists,we are talking of current voter register of 2010.

by **Energizer** » Fri Sep 21, 2012 8:06 am

Voter register for both 2007 and 2010:

http://www.eisa.org.za/WEP/ken2010registration.htm

Interim Independent Electoral Commission 2010 "Regional Voter Registration Statistics as at 5th May 2010", [www] http://www.iiec.or.ke/sites/default/fil ... ummary.pdf [PDF document, opens new window] (accessed 15 July 2010).

by **my2cents** » Fri Sep 21, 2012 8:10 am

Same thing, the total voters figures may have increased but the percentage share remains the same Gema still 30% of total. The current voter register is not finalized anyway so what we are doing is projecting based on previous elections.

pajero wrote:We are not talking of 2007 numbers,i doubt even if that register still exists,we are talking of current voter register of 2010.

by **my2cents** » Fri Sep 21, 2012 8:38 am

Remember the BVR tender saga and the suspected sabotage by ODM only for them to confirm our suspicions when they came out to say they will push for the manual system. Well it looks like the ancestors wont comeout to vote next year tihii hi hi. :lol:

With the BVR in place there will be no chance for karata. I have a feeling Railas performance will be shockingly bad with no kifunga macho gimmicks this time.

rveline wrote:we will know the truth,not propaganda, after the 1st round . after all,the usual dead voters and double registration as witnessed in the just ended by-election ,in one region,has no chance of repeating this time round. raila is nowhere near 1st or 2nd. its been well articulated here with actual figures and especially , if it comes to tribal voting.

by **veritas** » Fri Sep 21, 2012 9:03 am

Kibaki won't let Uhuru win. This was a tactic tried in Australia where John Howard campaigned to be prime minister again, knowing he would retire and let Peter Costello (finance minister) take over as prime minister. The scheme was exposed and Howard lost. In this case Uhuru is campaigning for Kibaki without him even realising perhaps. Kibaki might win the elections again but I bet my money he'll be ousted shortly afterwards.

by **RV Pundit** » Fri Sep 21, 2012 9:46 am

Let me clarify the figures.

2007-registered votes were 14.5
2010--current register--has 12.5

Cast votes in 2007 was 9.5M. Cast vote in referendum was 8.5-9M or about.

Uhuru will score gema yote; that set him at 3.5m cast vote (i'll redo the maths); he will get about 30% of the swing(0.5M votes); his 1% of the Big 5.40% is about 4M votes....and Uhuru will score that in first round.

by **my2cents** » Fri Sep 21, 2012 10:14 am

Veritas what you just said sounds rather convoluted lol. You are forcing a surreptitious plot that simply cannot fit in the current kenyan context. Kibaki aint running he is barred by the constitution. So how does that work? come on focus!

veritas wrote:Kibaki won't let Uhuru win. This was a tactic tried in Australia where John Howard campaigned to be prime minister again, knowing he would retire and let Peter Costello (finance minister) take over as prime minister. The scheme was exposed and Howard lost. In this case Uhuru is campaigning for Kibaki without him even realising perhaps. Kibaki might win visted shortly afterwards.

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