Kenya Talks

by **Kichwa Mbaya** » Sun Feb 10, 2013 6:30 pm

The CORD inner sanctum want the High court to dismiss the Uhuruto case on technicality, any technicality and not to reach a substantive ruling. There reasoning is that they believe Uhuruto are wounded and that CORD will win with a squeaker in the first round or in the run-offs with a wide margin. They believe if the court rules substantively on the matter they have no choice but to bar Uhuruto from running and CORD, especially Kalonzo and Wetangula fear the backlash. Also, they believe that if Uhuru is in the race they will be able to get more more poured into their campaign and they may prevail upon Mudavadi to bail-out or become irrelevant. They believe that once Uhuruto are firmly in the race they can make the sanction argument more concrete. Also they believe that if the court is dismissed on technicality the civil soceity should not appeal but wait to bring the case back if Uhuru wins and before he is inaguarated. This they believe is a win/win situation for everybody.

by **RV Heavy hitter!** » Sun Feb 10, 2013 7:03 pm

Kichwa Mbaya wrote:The CORD inner sanctum want the High court to dismiss the Uhuruto case on technicality, any technicality and not to reach a substantive ruling. There reasoning is that they believe Uhuruto are wounded and that CORD will win with a squeaker in the first round or in the run-offs with a wide margin. They believe if the court rules substantively on the matter they have no choice but to bar Uhuruto from running and CORD, especially Kalonzo and Wetangula fear the backlash. Also, they believe that if Uhuru is in the race they will be able to get more more poured into their campaign and they may prevail upon Mudavadi to bail-out or become irrelevant. They believe that once Uhuruto are firmly in the race they can make the sanction argument more concrete. Also they believe that if the court is dismissed on technicality the civil soceity should not appeal but wait to bring the case back if Uhuru wins and before he is inaguarated. This they believe is a win/win situation for everybody.

by **Ole** » Sun Feb 10, 2013 7:16 pm

1. Why would they want a case that they already know is not going anywhere dismissed?
2. Have they realized Uhuru has been embolden and his numbers boosted by this and the ICC case?
3. Are they realizing they will not win the first round and all they want is agree with the inevitable?
4. Why Would they not want their biggest opponent barred using chapter six?
5. Is their a Discord in between Wet-Anguler and kalonzo on one side and Raila on the other...why do they fear blame?
6. The sanction urgument has already been made and it has done nothing but show Raila has a project solidify his opponents numbers.
7. Uhuruto have been cleared by the IEBC and they are on the ballot..or do we have any other ballot?

Either you are making this up or CORD Raila has realized the inevitable and he want his civil society dogs to postpone the case so that when these guys win they can introduce the case afresh with the intention to bar their swearing in.

by **Terminator** » Sun Feb 10, 2013 7:50 pm

Mhhh...so they want to opt for the easy path to state house. Rather than the morally appropriate.

If the petitioners to pull out before the ruling. Is that technical enough?

Kichwa Mbaya wrote:The CORD inner sanctum want the High court to dismiss the Uhuruto case on technicality, any technicality and not to reach a substantive ruling. There reasoning is that they believe Uhuruto are wounded and that CORD will win with a squeaker in the first round or in the run-offs with a wide margin. They believe if the court rules substantively on the matter they have no choice but to bar Uhuruto from running and CORD, especially Kalonzo and Wetangula fear the backlash. Also, they believe that if Uhuru is in the race they will be able to get more more poured into their campaign and they may prevail upon Mudavadi to bail-out or become irrelevant. They believe that once Uhuruto are firmly in the race they can make the sanction argument more concrete. Also they believe that if the court is dismissed on technicality the civil soceity should not appeal but wait to bring the case back if Uhuru wins and before he is inaguarated. This they believe is a win/win situation for everybody.

by **PuaKal** » Sun Feb 10, 2013 8:21 pm

As silly as it sounds, this for long has been the prevailing mindset in ODM/CORD. It is the reason they have paid lip service to all issues of integrity. A gross miscalculation, if you asked me. Reveals all they truly believe in, despite the rhetoric. A time will come for regrets.

With this false start under the new Constitution, like the 1963 debacle launched the past 50 wasted years, Kenya is in the hole for another 50.

Terminator wrote:Mhhh...so they want to opt for the easy path to state house. Rather than the morally appropriate.

If the petitioners to pull out before the ruling. Is that technical enough?

by **Ekahcalm** » Sun Feb 10, 2013 8:29 pm

I've been following you and I have to say I admire your realism. I have heard of delusions but...
You call it as it is, a breath of fresh air! You give hope for a true Kenya, thank you.

PuaKal wrote:As silly as it sounds, this for long has been the prevailing mindset in ODM/CORD. It is the reason they have paid lip service to all issues of integrity. A gross miscalculation, if you asked me. Reveals all they truly believe in, despite the rhetoric. A time will come for regrets.

With this false start under the new Constitution, like the 1963 debacle launched the past 50 wasted years, Kenya is in the hole for another 50.
Terminator wrote:Mhhh...so they want to opt for the easy path to state house. Rather than the morally appropriate.

If the petitioners to pull out before the ruling. Is that technical enough?

by **Terminator** » Sun Feb 10, 2013 8:30 pm

Agreed. If true, then it could mean that Kenya is still in the same hole of the past half century. Even if CORD wins. If the law is considered as just another political tool, then there is no telling when it becomes inconvenient to respect it when in power. But I could see a counter argument. Much along the lines that playing hardball is the only language the forces they are arraigned against understand. An ugly situation.

PuaKal wrote:As silly as it sounds, this for long has been the prevailing mindset in ODM/CORD. It is the reason they have paid lip service to all issues of integrity. A gross miscalculation, if you asked me. Reveals all they truly believe in, despite the rhetoric. A time will come for regrets.

With this false start under the new Constitution, like the 1963 debacle launched the past 50 wasted years, Kenya is in the hole for another 50.
Terminator wrote:Mhhh...so they want to opt for the easy path to state house. Rather than the morally appropriate.

If the petitioners to pull out before the ruling. Is that technical enough?

by **PuaKal** » Sun Feb 10, 2013 8:44 pm

There are no two ways reading this, really. It is playing dangerous politics with the constitution. Remember they played the same games with the first suit. Lest we forget, one of the leading petitioners was prevailed upon to withdraw the suit; he was later rewarded with a ticket to become the MP for Ndhiwa. What makes them think an integrity challenge will be safer after the two amigos have been elected? It is in fact riskier to attempt dislodging a president-elect than launching a preemptive strike.

What is most unsettling is the feeling that CJ Mutunga and his Judiciary has abetted this trickery and been content playing along.

Terminator wrote:Agreed. If true, then it could mean that Kenya is still in the same hole of the past half century. Even if CORD wins. If the law is considered as just another political tool, then there is no telling when it becomes inconvenient to respect it when in power. But I could see a counter argument. Much along the lines that playing hardball is the only language the forces they are arraigned against understand. An ugly situation.
PuaKal wrote:As silly as it sounds, this for long has been the prevailing mindset in ODM/CORD. It is the reason they have paid lip service to all issues of integrity. A gross miscalculation, if you asked me. Reveals all they truly believe in, despite the rhetoric. A time will come for regrets.

With this false start under the new Constitution, like the 1963 debacle launched the past 50 wasted years, Kenya is in the hole for another 50.
Terminator wrote:Mhhh...so they want to opt for the easy path to state house. Rather than the morally appropriate.

If the petitioners to pull out before the ruling. Is that technical enough?

by **Ole** » Sun Feb 10, 2013 8:45 pm

If it is true, then someone is preparing the ground to lose then go to court proper after they have been whopped. I would say ODM took a nap through the passing of the constitutional bills (chapter six was watered down considerably) but they really slept through the registration of voters. Raila being in government, and a nusu Mkeka to boot, had five years to prepare a very well wheeled, efficient , effective and realistic campaign but i guess his strategy was just to rely on luck. I really think, like many here, thought UHURUTO would not be on the ballot because the ICC was going to come quick and furious and take them away. Raila for a long time thought his main opponent was going to be kalonzo and he didn't have to prepare because most of us consider Kalonzo a traitor and that given the two he was going to breeze through the election. Depending on luck is not a strategy.

by **Ekahcalm** » Sun Feb 10, 2013 8:49 pm

No, chapter six was watered down because none of Kenyan politicians would pass the litmus test. Plain and simple.
So, those who sing chapter six in their every waking day thinking it will favour them can preach on!

Ole wrote:If it is true, then someone is preparing the ground to lose then go to court proper after they have been whopped. I would say ODM took a nap through the passing of the constitutional bills (chapter six was watered down considerably) but they really slept through the registration of voters. Raila being in government had five years to prepare a very well wheeled, efficient , effective and realistic campaign but i guess his strategy was just to rely on luck. I really think, like many here, thought UHURUTO would not be on the ballot because the ICC was going to come quick and furious and take them away. Raila for a long time thought his main opponent was going to be kalonzo and he didn't have to prepare because most of us consider Kalonzo a traitor and that given the two he was going to breeze through the election. Depending on luck is not a strategy.

by **Terminator** » Sun Feb 10, 2013 8:53 pm

The way I understand Kichwa's suggestion is that CORD don't actually expect the issue to come up. They fully expect to prevail. With the integrity option being a last option. Rather than a first strike. That way, it could be argued, they avoid eliminating Jubilee through the courts and everyone is happy(except of course the loosers). But if by some chance Jubilee wins, they go to court with the integrity issue. What Kichwa calls a win win situation. For CORD. I can see the pros and cons of that line of thinking.

PuaKal wrote:There are no two ways reading this, really. It is playing dangerous politics with the constitution. Remember they played the same games with the first suit. Lest we forget, one of the leading petitioners was prevailed upon to withdraw the suit; he was later rewarded with a ticket to become the MP for Ndhiwa. What makes them think an integrity challenge will be safer after the two amigos have been elected? It is in fact riskier to attempt dislodging a president-elect than launching a preemptive strike.
Terminator wrote:Agreed. If true, then it could mean that Kenya is still in the same hole of the past half century. Even if CORD wins. If the law is considered as just another political tool, then there is no telling when it becomes inconvenient to respect it when in power. But I could see a counter argument. Much along the lines that playing hardball is the only language the forces they are arraigned against understand. An ugly situation.
PuaKal wrote:As silly as it sounds, this for long has been the prevailing mindset in ODM/CORD. It is the reason they have paid lip service to all issues of integrity. A gross miscalculation, if you asked me. Reveals all they truly believe in, despite the rhetoric. A time will come for regrets.

With this false start under the new Constitution, like the 1963 debacle launched the past 50 wasted years, Kenya is in the hole for another 50.

by **PuaKal** » Sun Feb 10, 2013 8:55 pm

Thanks! Not easy, but I try. For most Kenyans, particularly in Nipate, realism is considered delusion, pretense, or both

Ekahcalm wrote:I've been following you and I have to say I admire your realism. I have heard of delusions but...
You call it as it is, a breath of fresh air! You give hope for a true Kenya, thank you.

PuaKal wrote:As silly as it sounds, this for long has been the prevailing mindset in ODM/CORD. It is the reason they have paid lip service to all issues of integrity. A gross miscalculation, if you asked me. Reveals all they truly believe in, despite the rhetoric. A time will come for regrets.

With this false start under the new Constitution, like the 1963 debacle launched the past 50 wasted years, Kenya is in the hole for another 50.

by **PuaKal** » Sun Feb 10, 2013 9:03 pm

It is all about them then, right? As long as it serves their interests, nothing else matters. Have they sat back to consider the little matter of constitutional precedence and institutional integrity. What if tomorrow the shoe is on the other foot? We have seen this movie before…when circumventing of laws to give a certain group advantage later turned back to bite their behinds mercilessly - Jaramogi Odinga, Tom Mboya, Charles Njonjo, and the Kiambu Mafia, just to name but a few.

I think Ekahcalm has correctly diagnosed the whole Chapter 6 malaise. Think of Otieno Kajwang' supporting stringent enforcement of integrity clause; he knows he can't pass.

All I can say is: Majuto ni mjukuu!

Terminator wrote:The way I understand Kichwa's suggestion is that CORD don't actually expect the issue to come up. They fully expect to prevail. With the integrity option being a last option. Rather than a first strike. That way, it could be argued, they avoid eliminating Jubilee through the courts and everyone is happy(except of course the loosers). But if by some chance Jubilee wins, they go to court with the integrity issue. What Kichwa calls a win win situation. For CORD. I can see the pros and cons of that line of thinking.

by **Terminator** » Sun Feb 10, 2013 9:09 pm

Well yes. It is about them. If you consider the Mudavadi factor if becomes clearer. Only use the integrity clause when there is nothing to lose. I agree it is bad optics and precedence. That being said, it certainly cannot be worse than the alternative. I notice you mention Mutunga, but I think his hands are tied; legally. The courts can only deal with what is before them.

PuaKal wrote:It is all about them then, right? As long as it serves their interests, nothing else matters. Have they sat back to consider the little matter of constitutional precedence and institutional integrity. What if tomorrow the shoe is on the other foot? We have seen this movie before…when circumventing of laws to give a certain group advantage later turned back to bite their behinds mercilessly - Jaramogi Odinga, Tom Mboya, Charles Njonjo, and the Kiambu Mafia, just to name but a few. Majuto ni mjukuu.
Terminator wrote:The way I understand Kichwa's suggestion is that CORD don't actually expect the issue to come up. They fully expect to prevail. With the integrity option being a last option. Rather than a first strike. That way, it could be argued, they avoid eliminating Jubilee through the courts and everyone is happy(except of course the loosers). But if by some chance Jubilee wins, they go to court with the integrity issue. What Kichwa calls a win win situation. For CORD. I can see the pros and cons of that line of thinking.

by **Terminator** » Sun Feb 10, 2013 9:13 pm

Ekahcalm is correct about Chapter six. She however might not fully grasp the fact that the constitution can be used to interpret the chapter and do stuff that you don't see in the statutes. You know. Spirits and that kind of thing.

PuaKal wrote:I think Ekahcalm has correctly diagnosed the whole Chapter 6 malaise. Think of Otieno Kajwang' supporting stringent enforcement of integrity clause; he knows he can't pass.

Kenya Talks

CORD want the court to dimsiss Uhuruto's case on technicatility

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