Kenya Talks

Kalenjin see kikuyu as worthy opponent; They see Raila and Luo are small kids who cannot be trusted with serious issues; Raila got a leap of faith in kalenjin bid to avenge kibaki misdeed; He proved himself to be what Kalenjin always thought; a good for nothing ingrate.

Wake me up if ODM win even ONE WARD in Kalenjin. Even in Pokot. Go to any kalenjin place and talk about Raila being voted again...see how many friends that win you. Talk about Uhuru and people at worse will be ambivalent..at best supportive.

Raila and anybody associating with him isn't getting more than 2% of the vote in whichever round.

The ideas of Raila being less evil and Luo being sijui mild land thieves worked in 2007; Raila proved the opposite; GEMA for last five yrs have covered lot of ground by burying the hatchet;

pajero wrote:Never say die Pundit

bwanapesa wrote:Kalenjins do not like Kikuyu and vice versa and cant vote for each other. Kikuyus are sitting on Kalenjin land stolen by Kenyatta and are bitter. Kikuyus have faced persecution from kalenjins and have never forgiven them. this is a fact. Worse still, the Kibaki presidency has worsened the relationship.
Kalenjins can work with Luos any day. there are no historical differences.

in 2012 Referrendum, Kikuyus voted Yes while Kelenjin voted No

Mintos wrote:in 2012 Referrendum, Kikuyus voted Yes while Kelenjin voted No

And in 2005 Referendum, Kikuyus voted Yes and Kalenjins and Luos voted No. Conclussion, it is much easier for Kalenjin to vote with Luos than with Kikuyu.

And oh btw I'm Gikuyu just in case you are wondering.

pay attention i'll not repeat this anywhere else.

Facts:
1. Uhuru-TNA will be on the second round - no debate about that.

2. Depending on how they play their cards either WSR-URP or Raila-NDP may be on the second round.

Scenario One - Raila-NDP makes it second round
Both Uhuru and Raila will have to court Ruto. Logic dictates that Uhuru will have the upperhand in the quest to have rutoh supply the winning vote. Uhuru and WSR are on talking terms right now and they have a uniting factor - they are both facing same predicament at the Hague. It's no brainer who WSR will lend ear to. The hullabaloo about kalenjin not trusting kikuyu's will be dealt with by post election agreement on coalition. They will sign a legal document on how they will conduct business together - and if Uhuru try to play dirty then WSR-URP can just withdraw from coalition and force another round of election.

Scenario Two - WSR-URP makes it second round.
First there will be nationwide celabration of the fact that the political dinosor will have been decapitated. In the second friendly match both Uhuru-TNA and WSR-URP may turn down any coalition agreement with Odinga-NDP(Why bring him in? - He will just come into goverment to claim seats in committees for his Midiwo cousins)

Irrelevant Players
Eugene-FORD K - His best chance is being Uhuru's VP otherwise he better practice for 2017
Mudavadi-UDF - Depending on how Eugene decides his will get 500,000 - 1.2M votes - may become relevant in the event that UHURU-TNA and WSR-URP makes it to the second friendly match.
Kalonzo-WDM - Constant 700,000 votes not enough to get to second round.
Karua-NARC-K -if she does best then she'll manage 56,000 votes in the first round (Take this to the bank)
PK-Mzungu - His votes at best will be capped at 24,000 votes(It could be much less - Also Bankable)
Kiyappy - He may not even get the required 1000 votes for nomination but anyway if he does his votes is capped at 6,200

whisful thingking the coming elections will be about land grabbing by the Kenyatta family.

novice wrote:pay attention i'll not repeat this anywhere else.

Facts:
1. Uhuru-TNA will be on the second round - no debate about that.

2. Depending on how they play their cards either WSR-URP or Raila-NDP may be on the second round.

Scenario One - Raila-NDP makes it second round
Both Uhuru and Raila will have to court Ruto. Logic dictates that Uhuru will have the upperhand in the quest to have rutoh supply the winning vote. Uhuru and WSR are on talking terms right now and they have a uniting factor - they are both facing same predicament at the Hague. It's no brainer who WSR will lend ear to. The hullabaloo about kalenjin not trusting kikuyu's will be dealt with by post election agreement on coalition. They will sign a legal document on how they will conduct business together - and if Uhuru try to play dirty then WSR-URP can just withdraw from coalition and force another round of election.

Scenario Two - WSR-URP makes it second round.
First there will be nationwide celabration of the fact that the political dinosor will have been decapitated. In the second friendly match both Uhuru-TNA and WSR-URP may turn down any coalition agreement with Odinga-NDP(Why bring him in? - He will just come into goverment to claim seats in committees for his Midiwo cousins)

Irrelevant Players
Eugene-FORD K - His best chance is being Uhuru's VP otherwise he better practice for 2017
Mudavadi-UDF - Depending on how Eugene decides his will get 500,000 - 1.2M votes - may become relevant in the event that UHURU-TNA and WSR-URP makes it to the second friendly match.
Kalonzo-WDM - Constant 700,000 votes not enough to get to second round.
Karua-NARC-K -if she does best then she'll manage 56,000 votes in the first round (Take this to the bank)
PK-Mzungu - His votes at best will be capped at 24,000 votes(It could be much less - Also Bankable)
Kiyappy - He may not even get the required 1000 votes for nomination but anyway if he does his votes is capped at 6,200

mombasa wrote:whisful thingking the coming elections will be about land grabbing by the Kenyatta family.

novice wrote:pay attention i'll not repeat this anywhere else.

Facts:
1. Uhuru-TNA will be on the second round - no debate about that.

2. Depending on how they play their cards either WSR-URP or Raila-NDP may be on the second round.

Scenario One - Raila-NDP makes it second round
Both Uhuru and Raila will have to court Ruto. Logic dictates that Uhuru will have the upperhand in the quest to have rutoh supply the winning vote. Uhuru and WSR are on talking terms right now and they have a uniting factor - they are both facing same predicament at the Hague. It's no brainer who WSR will lend ear to. The hullabaloo about kalenjin not trusting kikuyu's will be dealt with by post election agreement on coalition. They will sign a legal document on how they will conduct business together - and if Uhuru try to play dirty then WSR-URP can just withdraw from coalition and force another round of election.

Scenario Two - WSR-URP makes it second round.
First there will be nationwide celabration of the fact that the political dinosor will have been decapitated. In the second friendly match both Uhuru-TNA and WSR-URP may turn down any coalition agreement with Odinga-NDP(Why bring him in? - He will just come into goverment to claim seats in committees for his Midiwo cousins)

Irrelevant Players
Eugene-FORD K - His best chance is being Uhuru's VP otherwise he better practice for 2017
Mudavadi-UDF - Depending on how Eugene decides his will get 500,000 - 1.2M votes - may become relevant in the event that UHURU-TNA and WSR-URP makes it to the second friendly match.
Kalonzo-WDM - Constant 700,000 votes not enough to get to second round.
Karua-NARC-K -if she does best then she'll manage 56,000 votes in the first round (Take this to the bank)
PK-Mzungu - His votes at best will be capped at 24,000 votes(It could be much less - Also Bankable)
Kiyappy - He may not even get the required 1000 votes for nomination but anyway if he does his votes is capped at 6,200

True True True, UHURU will loose to whomever he meets in the second round, If its Ruto, the luos and Luyhas and kalaenjins will vote for him, If its Mudavadi, same thing, if its RAO Luos, Luyhias , Kalenjins will vote for him. Uhuru is going no where. Anyone will beat him in second round since its going to be about Land and tribalism- read Kikuyu because of what Kibaki has done for the last 10 Years. Karisa Maitha told them to enjoy Kibakis Presidency as that was the last they were ever going to have it....The scenario that I find difficult to predict is a RAO Ruto second round, who would win?

Raila will beat Ruto,Okuyus will never vote Ruto,afadhali Raila.

pajero wrote:Raila will beat Ruto,Okuyus will never vote Ruto,afadhali Raila.

I dont think so Pajero, Kikuyus may not vote if none of their own is not on the ballot. I think if its Ruto Raila, the Luyha's will tilt it and may vote for Ruto as opossed to RAO....

Well,that can be interesting,but why wouldn''t Okuyus vote?

pajero wrote:Well,that can be interesting,but why wouldn''t Okuyus vote?

They are naturally selfish, if they got no stake in it then they will boycott! and secondly they hate RAO and RUTO in equal measure so they would rather have none so they wont vote.