Kenya Talks

All,
I don't know any African President who would voluntarily retire given the following-
a) when the ICC is actively investigating crimes planned and executed from State House under his watch;
b) when his successor would not hesitate to hand him over to the ICC;
c) when upon retirement, he is most likely going to face a local tribunal to answer for crimes committed during his tenure (especially PEV);
d) when his arch enemy (Raila) is eager to unleash revenge on his neck;
e) when retiring would mean that the son of his political mentor (Uhuru) and his most trusted friend (Muthaura) would be extradited to The Hague;
f) knowing very well that at age 80-yrs old, choices are limited with nothing to lose: retire and go to The Hague, retire and let Raila have sweet revenge, retire and face local tribunal, OR, cling to power and die in office? Given these choices, anybody with a functioning brain cell would choose the path to self-preservation.

Respectfully,

Daktari, you keep forgetting this is a new Kenya, with a new constitution. He will retire at the end of term apende asipende.

Sibuor wrote:Daktari, you keep forgetting this is a new Kenya, with a new constitution. He will retire at the end of term apende asipende.

Kibaki's only assurance to continue enjoying his freedom is if he stays in power.. anything else he does would be tantamount to committing suicide.

What would you or anybody do if he refuses to retire, knowing very well that he spent the past 9 yrs ethnicizing the security forces in Kenya? What would you or anybody really do if he refuses to retire, knowing very well that Kenya is divided in the middle when it comes to this Hague issue e.g RV and GEMA are sympathetic to Uhuru and Ruto therefore they wont participate in whatever others may do to try and remove Kibaki. Kibaki, Uhuru and Ruto command a sizable population of Kenya, and that's where the real challenge lies. The old man can stay in power if he thinks that leaving the presidency would expose him to prosecution..

I am not supporting any acts that violates the Constitution of Kenya, all I am saying is that when it comes to a matter of life and death, men like Kibaki would not give a sht about that piece of paper.

Remember also that Kibaki has the sole powers to call for State of Emergency which means elections cannot be held under those circumstances. He doesnt need a valid reason to tell Kenyans that we are in State of Emergency..

Respectfully,

It is really getting extremely hard to figure out a scenario where kibaki will retire in peace like Moi. There is still a possibility of him taking charge and creating a conducive environment for RVs and Gema to take over, so he can sleep in his retirement. You can only imagine how, many kyuks raila wants murdered for all the injustices done to his father and himself for that last 30yrs

Kibaki's biggest threat to a peaceful retirement is a breathing Muthaura. I will not substantiate.

RV Heavy hitter! wrote:It is really getting extremely hard to figure out a scenario where kibaki will retire in peace like Moi. There is still a possibility of him taking charge and creating a conducive environment for RVs and Gema to take over, so he can sleep in his retirement. You can only imagine how, many kyuks raila wants murdered for all the injustices done to his father and himself for that last 30yrs

Omwami, you seem to have had a moment of clarity today. What happened? Did you finally manage to pull your head out of your backside (which must have taken a lot of greasing with Kimbo/Blue-Band or whatever it's called), or has Raila taken a short break from dancing all in, on, and around it? Whichever it is, I mostly agree with your analysis.

Some people actually think that a new constitution actually means anything to the Owners of Kenya and do not see that the Owners will allow a small amount of "change" just to let some steam out of a bubbling pot that might endanger them. Kibaki knows what any "leader" in Sub-Sahara Africa knows---that there is almost no limit to the extent to which you can shit on the heads of the ruled and they will just take it. If Kenyans were even just a little less tribalistic or a little less sheep-like, they might be able to stop Kibaki in whatever sort of "mta do?" path that he chooses. Sadly, the quality of available stock does not promise much; so we cannot look to the unthinking, tribalistic sheep to stop Kibaki from becoming another Mugabe.

The reason I only agree "mostly", and not wholly, with your analysis, is that it does not adequately take into account Kenya's history and the relationship between the Owners and the sheep. Some people think that Kenyans managed to get rid of Moi, the Master Mass-Murderer At Election Time, after 24 years but that is not so. What happened is that (especially after certain Western countries took a tough line), the Owners, who saw their interests threatened, had a chat with Moi: "Brother Arap, you are now one of us. When our interests are threatened, so are yours. You have managed to nyakua enough in 24 years. Why not quietly enjoy it now, like the rest of us. Not to worry, we'll get the right sort of fellow into State House. You will have almost all the perks you had as president and a few more. In fact, for starters, why not keep that nice house? More importantly, you will never have to face the law for all the heinous crimes you had carried out on Kenyans. Surely, that has to be better than going out in the traditional African way. What say you, Brother Arap?". The rest, as they say, is history.

I am here trying to say two things. First, Kibaki, although he has been around for ages, is president, has stolen more than his fair share and so is very wealthy .... has never actually been one of The Owners of Kenya; he's just the boy they put to mind the shop-front while business is conducted at the back ... unlike Uhuru, whose daddy had already done all the "heavy lifting" when it came to robbing Kenyans. As an aside, I'll say this for Jomo: he had his bit of killing, he was a thieving scoundrel, he started "eating" (a true Kenyan passion), let the country go to pot while he was busy with a newly acquired schoolgirl-wife (a certain Ngina or something)... but the wholesale slaughter of citizens at election-time was never his sort of thing. End of Aside. Second, it is not the unthinking, tribalistic sheep that populate Kenya who will clip Kibaki's wings; the real call will be made by the Owners of Kenya. There is only one thing you can rely on the sheep to do: even while starving (supposedly drought), not having even clean water to drink, suffering from easily preventable illnesses, ... they will happily slaughter each other because "or man has to get into State House".

They will never let Muthaura be tried. Uhuru? Perhaps. Even Kibaki if it comes to the worst. But definitely not the Ambassador.

By the way, RV, when it comes to the crunch, The Owners will cut a deal with anyone---even Raila.

kneegrow wrote:Kibaki's biggest threat to a peaceful retirement is a breathing Muthaura. I will not substantiate.

RV Heavy hitter! wrote:It is really getting extremely hard to figure out a scenario where kibaki will retire in peace like Moi. There is still a possibility of him taking charge and creating a conducive environment for RVs and Gema to take over, so he can sleep in his retirement. You can only imagine how, many kyuks raila wants murdered for all the injustices done to his father and himself for that last 30yrs

otishotish wrote: Second, it is not the unthinking, tribalistic sheep that populate Kenya who will clip Kibaki's wings; the real call will be made by the Owners of Kenya.

Great point that needs transparent clarity.

Ownership of Kenya is based on economic might. The true owners of Kenya who persuaded Moi to retire were men who controlled substantial economic assets in Kenya, some having Mr. Moi as silent investor in their businesses. The Michukis, the Karumes, the Githunguris, the Kenyattas, et cetera are some of the most powerful people in Kenya who managed to sweet talk Moi into retirement by GUARANTEEING that he will not be bothered by anybody in retirement. They guaranteed this because they knew that their man (stooge if you like), Mwai Kibaki, would inherit the Presidency. Remember 5 yrs after Moi's retirement, some of the "true owners of Kenya" were heard saying that they would rather "let Kenya go the Rwanda way" than hand over power to Raila Odinga. That is a very powerful statement.. it is a statement of the Mind.

Having established the fact that the true owners of Kenya are largely economic giants from Kenyatta regime, and whose economic nurturing started at the hands of Mzee Jomo Kenyatta, we can safely assume that anything touching Uhuru Kenyatta, Mwai Kibaki, etc would threaten the interests of the true owners of Kenya. Remember that Kenya has never had a radical president who threatened the establishment- Moi was Kenyatta's deputy and Kibaki was Moi's deputy-- the system has always worked to the advantage of the true owners of Kenya. The only way they can allow Kibaki to contemplate retirement is if they identify someone (like Saitoti) who can continue doing "business as usual" instead of making radical changes.

I simply do not see things changing just because we have a new constitution.. Mwai Kibaki may as well be Kenya's President for Life.

Respectfully,

Doctor Masinde wrote:

otishotish wrote: Second, it is not the unthinking, tribalistic sheep that populate Kenya who will clip Kibaki's wings; the real call will be made by the Owners of Kenya.

Great point that needs transparent clarity.

Ownership of Kenya is based on economic might. The true owners of Kenya who persuaded Moi to retire were men who controlled substantial economic assets in Kenya, some having Mr. Moi as silent investor in their businesses. The Michukis, the Karumes, the Githunguris, the Kenyattas, et cetera are some of the most powerful people in Kenya who managed to sweet talk Moi into retirement by GUARANTEEING that he will not be bothered by anybody in retirement. They guaranteed this because they knew that their man (stooge if you like), Mwai Kibaki, would inherit the Presidency. Remember 5 yrs after Moi's retirement, some of the "true owners of Kenya" were heard saying that they would rather "let Kenya go the Rwanda way" than hand over power to Raila Odinga. That is a very powerful statement.. it is a statement of the Mind.

Having established the fact that the true owners of Kenya are largely economic giants from Kenyatta regime, and whose economic nurturing started at the hands of Mzee Jomo Kenyatta, we can safely assume that anything touching Uhuru Kenyatta, Mwai Kibaki, etc would threaten the interests of the true owners of Kenya. Remember that Kenya has never had a radical president who threatened the establishment- Moi was Kenyatta's deputy and Kibaki was Moi's deputy-- the system has always worked to the advantage of the true owners of Kenya. The only way they can allow Kibaki to contemplate retirement is if they identify someone (like Saitoti) who can continue doing "business as usual" instead of making radical changes.

I simply do not see things changing just because we have a new constitution.. Mwai Kibaki may as well be Kenya's President for Life.

Respectfully,

Agree most part, but kibaki will not rule not more than 2 years before Kenya goes belly up. We are at the critical juncture, and soon Baba moi and Real Mama Ngina(Not Nipatean) will be advising Power brokers on the way forward. Did you see the recent pull back from Gema presidential aspirants? The game is just starting, and the peasants including many here on nipate thinks oohh! raila has been handed presidency on a silver plate! Bull! its never gonna happen. I bet there will be one person making a decision, that will be the unspoken law of the land(the anonymous)

Masinde and RV, we have all heard this before, ooohh charges will not be confirmed, ooooohh UK and muthatura cannot resign, oooohhh kenya will plunge into chaos. All this has just proven y'all full of fart. Atleast on ur point (b) u acknowledge the successor. Let it be clear the wheels of human right and decency cannot be derailed or slowed by anyone. FYI the only thing that the "kenyan owners" own is pple of ur ilk. In the general scheme of things they are drops in an ocean.

tqlcd wrote:Masinde and RV, we have all heard this before, ooohh charges will not be confirmed, ooooohh UK and muthatura cannot resign, oooohhh kenya will plunge into chaos. All this has just proven y'all full of fart. Atleast on ur point (b) u acknowledge the successor. Let it be clear the wheels of human right and decency cannot be derailed or slowed by anyone. FYI the only thing that the "kenyan owners" own is pple of ur ilk. In the general scheme of things they are drops in an ocean.

Tone down your insults.

Respectfully,

tqlcd wrote:Masinde and RV, we have all heard this before, ooohh charges will not be confirmed, ooooohh UK and muthatura cannot resign, oooohhh kenya will plunge into chaos. All this has just proven y'all full of fart. Atleast on ur point (b) u acknowledge the successor. Let it be clear the wheels of human right and decency cannot be derailed or slowed by anyone. FYI the only thing that the "kenyan owners" own is pple of ur ilk. In the general scheme of things they are drops in an ocean.

You seem to be thinking that you are so intelligent. Coupled with your apparent self-righteusness, it seems you've never learnt from the 07/08 PEV.

Daktari, this is so true, desperate men tend to behave desperately! see gagbo...am sure he has thought or is even entertaining the thought....I cant wait to see how this will play out!

With Ocampo, Raila & his goons pushing the country to the brink, Kibaki can go bonkers by pulling out of the coallition, declaring state of emergency and suspend the constitution. Remember also that Kenya is at war in Somalia. This allows Kibaki to declare state of emergency if or when alshabaab rains bombs in Nairobi and Mombasa.

True RV wrote:With Ocampo, Raila & his goons pushing the country to the brink, Kibaki can go bonkers by pulling out of the coallition, declaring state of emergency and suspend the constitution. Remember also that Kenya is at war in Somalia. This allows Kibaki to declare state of emergency if or when alshabaab rains bombs in Nairobi and Mombasa.

Pundit, I woulndt put it past him to arrange for a few miscellenious boms or grenades to explode randomly in the country to justify the call....desperate men have been know to do some crazy things...