Kenya Talks

I think even 6% is attainable.Agri esp tea has shattered records...producution & prices are historic..tourism numbers should have overtaken 07 ones..energy and water sector have held up with good rains...coffee prices are very high though volumes low...Milk production for first 3 quarters held up...with short rains delaying there could be problems..ICT with entry of indians (Bahrti and U folks) is still kicking .arse. The staple food maize has a good year productionwise..but pricing still problematic. Sugar with new private bahindi factories come up in western (butali),kisumu and RV is showing some vibrancy. Finance...banking..credit pipelines have opened..NSE is on course for 4,500-5,000 points by year end. The chinese are building infra everywhere. Property market is holding up...with approved buildings value increasingly year in year out.

The bars are beginning to fill once again...it a good year economically.

http://www.nation.co.ke/News/Uhuru%20Ke ... index.html

Thanks for the good news...I hear rural electrification is working very well
they even have a payment plan to get connected to the grid now thats encouranging.

Indeed..Rural electrification has taken off...with commissioning of REA (rural elec board)..and delinking it from KPLC..everywhere i know is now max of 1KM from nearest electric pole...all trading centers should now be connected...they need to get transformer down to every 600M of households... KPLC have group thing..were you join up and buy a stepdown transformer.

Kenya definitely has turn the corner....that doesn' mean the mess esp on roads, railways and water isn't as bad..at least comm is now sorted out...you can call anywhere anytime basically for 3bob or less...the multiplier effect from communication, info and tech will set our economy in a strong footing.

And like Uhuru said...informal sector is huge and yet is not measured.

Ole Ole wrote:Thanks for the good news...I hear rural electrification is working very well
they even have a payment plan to get connected to the grid now thats encouranging.

Precisely. communication wise kenya is in first world category ata they guy who
tends our cows he has a mobile phone i can daily update on how cows are feeding
cheaper ways to communicate will definately open up alot of new frontiers. I hope the cost will hold
for sometime.
Electricity other than small disruption here and there its taken off, long term i hope they look at
cheaper ways of generating power. (solar and wind)
Long term economic wise I think we should explore ways to diversify and become an economic hub
for east and central africa. Agri economy is good but as you noted its all depedent on factors beyond our
control. Rain and international prices

Yes indeed; what communication sector has achieved in last 10yrs everywhere in africa-asia--is a proof enough that a leapfrog is still possible--from a scenario where total no of lines were less than manhattan--to current scenario where total no of lines is perhaps twice US numbers is something. The same revolution is taking route in internet and broadband..esp mobile one..with 3M have internet..and perhaps 10M who have some shared internet conn..that is already 10%...and i can expect it to grow to 50% in 5 or so years.

Electricity has been on and off thing...there are plethora of activities...but still way too little too late. I think until engineers come up with cheaper off-grid (at least main) solution then it will take as long as the develop world took...to really leapfrog..we need cheap and easily scabale solution...say a solarkit that produce 1KW (enough for normal hse) that cost 100 or so dollars..and is reliable...right now it cost 1M for 1KW...and it still unreliable...maths simply don't add up. Same case with microhydro power...or microwindpower. Though folks have access to power..it still the middle class of rural areas who really can afford it.

On Agri-economy-- it will be the usual rain boom-burst cycle for kenya--till we industralize enough at least to supply other africans with basic stuff --or at least engage in service industry (outsourcings)---we need to commission a study of how some 30K or less BAHINDI can control Industrial area..and do it so well year in year out...until we have normal you and me owning industries...we' will be agrarian economy for longtime. Kenya indians have managed to transform cottage industries to big companies.

Ole Ole wrote:Precisely. communication wise kenya is in first world category ata they guy who
tends our cows he has a mobile phone i can daily update on how cows are feeding
cheaper ways to communicate will definately open up alot of new frontiers. I hope the cost will hold
for sometime.
Electricity other than small disruption here and there its taken off, long term i hope they look at
cheaper ways of generating power. (solar and wind)
Long term economic wise I think we should explore ways to diversify and become an economic hub
for east and central africa. Agri economy is good but as you noted its all depedent on factors beyond our
control. Rain and international prices

The bahindi are ussually ahead of the curve but mainly i think because of how they share info. among themselves allover the globe. Through my inlaws in 2007 i met those bahindis of sameer group hapo parklands sport club and we were just chating and these guys were already talking about buying foreclosure property in florida and california based on info. they had at that time i could tell this guy had some deep and reliable sources in New york and london.

Solar cost will go down in the future as more companies invest in R&D on solar economy. I think it will be a big boost since people will start buying electronics that are solar powered. right now its almost immposible to power convetional Fridge with solar.
But there is alot of potential in Kenya especially for young people in entertainment industry but it has to be ran as business. just look at bollywood and Nollywood we can easily duplicate what this guys are doing...Entertainment business is not just entertainment but fashion industry too, this can build local industry in cloth making etc. Then use the same industry for modelling yound people to be responsible citizens

Great show on those sectors.

problem is that the other side of the economy is not doing too well. Unemployment for example has not picked up and the expected new constitution divident is still not any where visible.

Population explosion is something that need to be addressed together with unemployment.
most people in kenya are still looking for white collar jobs instead of being creative. a guy in my hood
has a jua kali grill and changes around $10 dollar to slaughter, grill all day and make good soup on weekends and guess what
he is booked almost all weekends by middle class people that do not know how to grill or just want to have a good time...now thats creativity right there
people need to be creative stop waiting for white collar jobs

Sixty Four wrote:Great show on those sectors.

problem is that the other side of the economy is not doing too well. Unemployment for example has not picked up and the expected new constitution divident is still not any where visible.

Ole Ole wrote:Population explosion is something that need to be addressed together with unemployment.
most people in kenya are still looking for white collar jobs instead of being creative. a guy in my hood
has a jua kali grill and changes around $10 dollar to slaughter, grill all day and make good soup on weekends and guess what
he is booked almost all weekends by middle class people that do not know how to grill or just want to have a good time...now thats creativity right there
people need to be creative stop waiting for white collar jobs

Sixty Four wrote:Great show on those sectors.

problem is that the other side of the economy is not doing too well. Unemployment for example has not picked up and the expected new constitution divident is still not any where visible.

No one beats Kenyans in innovation. That example is truly worth noting.

Population explosion is certainly a big problem both in the short term and in the long term. The big elephant in the house is however the dependence on rainfed agriculture. The trend will reverse with the possible drought as predicted by the Met people. Sustainable growth will have to look beyond the weather patterns.

Kenya are innovative and very creative especially on jua kali stuff but we have to push it to the next level
technology and machinasation. Instead of trying to spend less find ways to make more ..expand the pie..
however what i noted about our people is timidity, very few want to try new thing and if you try and succed they flock
and do the same thing at the end of the day every body is a matatu owner where will the passenger come from ?

Maharagwe economy is just that maharagwe economy..when it rains you are rich if it doesnt you are reduced to a beggar.

Sixty Four wrote:No one beats Kenyans in innovation. That example is truly worth noting.

Population explosion is certainly a big problem both in the short term and in the long term. The big elephant in the house is however the dependence on rainfed agriculture. The trend will reverse with the possible drought as predicted by the Met people. Sustainable growth will have to look beyond the weather patterns.

Ole Ole wrote:Kenya are innovative and very creative especially on jua kali stuff but we have to push it to the next level
technology and machinasation. Instead of trying to spend less find ways to make more ..expand the pie..
however what i noted about our people is timidity, very few want to try new thing and if you try and succed they flock
and do the same thing at the end of the day every body is a matatu owner where will the passenger come from ?

Maharagwe economy is just that maharagwe economy..when it rains you are rich if it doesnt you are reduced to a beggar.

Sixty Four wrote:No one beats Kenyans in innovation. That example is truly worth noting.

Population explosion is certainly a big problem both in the short term and in the long term. The big elephant in the house is however the dependence on rainfed agriculture. The trend will reverse with the possible drought as predicted by the Met people. Sustainable growth will have to look beyond the weather patterns.

That then brings us to the Classic African Thinkers question. What should Africa be pursuing. Is it the Agrarian Revolution or Industrial Revolution?

That then brings us to the Classic African Thinkers question. What should Africa be pursuing. Is it the Agrarian Revolution or Industrial Revolution?

I would say both in equal measure...Food security is very important so agriculture is very important for any economy