Kenya Talks

This here, on Uhuru's left, is Katoo Ole Metito campaigning for Ole Sakuda just last week:



Uhuru has now influenced the appointment of Wamalwa, Jamleck Kamau, Githae and now Ole Metito, and some people still want us to believe that Kibaki has dumped Uhuru for Mudavadi? By the time MM realizes what is going on, if he has not already, it will too late to do anything.

Because there is no UDF mp or allied MP.

Also because kibaki wants UHURU to be the kingmaker. such that MM will become prezzo without mps, and SERVES at the behest of TNA

NYOMBA ni NYOMBA….
iyo tu!!!

Wengine wakunye

Energizer wrote:This here, on Uhuru's left, is Katoo Ole Metito campaigning for Ole Sakuda just last week:



Uhuru has now influenced the appointment of Wamalwa, Jamleck Kamau, Githae and now Ole Metito, and some people still want us to believe that Kibaki has dumped Uhuru for Mudavadi? By the time MM realizes what is going on, if he has not already, it will too late to do anything.

There ARE indeed UDF allied MPs..Khalwale, Kizito, Kioni, Nderitu Muriithi etc..yet when the opportunity arose to demonstrate support for MM by appointing a Luhya like Khalwale who is on PNU side to full Cabinet and to demonstrate his support for MM, Kibaki instead appoints an Uhuru crony. Tell us another one. You UDF guys are blind but cannot see..you have been played like a Spanish guitar by Kibaki. Kibaki shows support for MM by sending him on errands and making him feel important, Luhyas on the street then say..'huyo ni mtu wetu ame enda New York ku-represend Kipaki' ..

mwalimu wrote:Because there is no UDF mp or allied MP.

Also because kibaki wants UHURU to be the kingmaker. such that MM will become prezzo without mps, and SERVES at the behest of TNA

let me educate you energizer, who else do you think will vote for uhuru apart from gema,and stop being naive eti kalenjins will vote for him come second round. and now you happily say mudavadi is being taken for a ride,do you know if luhyas realize that uhuru goose is cooked because obviously they will vote raira. son go slow on murats, tell me from which other tribes will uhuru get votes.

Njuri Ncheke wrote:let me educate you energizer, who else do you think will vote for uhuru apart from gema,and stop being naive eti kalenjins will vote for him come second round. and now you happily say mudavadi is being taken for a ride,do you know if luhyas realize that uhuru goose is cooked because obviously they will vote raira. son go slow on murats, tell me from which other tribes will uhuru get votes.

It depends it's against who. 4 Me, My 1st choice is Ruto. But if it is between jacon and Uhuru, i'll give uhuru

Njuri Ncheke wrote:let me educate you energizer, who else do you think will vote for uhuru apart from gema,and stop being naive eti kalenjins will vote for him come second round. and now you happily say mudavadi is being taken for a ride,do you know if luhyas realize that uhuru goose is cooked because obviously they will vote raira. son go slow on murats, tell me from which other tribes will uhuru get votes.

let me educate you energizer

I am all ears teacher.

who else do you think will vote for uhuru apart from gema

Errh..how about Maasais in all of Kajiado, for instance. Also potentially Somalis and Kisiis who already have a lot goodwill towards him. On the other hand teacher, let me ask you..who will vote for Mudavadi even if Energizer votes for him? Many GEMA won't vote for Mudavadi even if Uhuru steps down, and will vote Karua, Kenneth or Kalonzo. What difference then can Energizer or Njuri make if they vote for someone who also cannot even guarantee 100% Luhya votes? I AM NOT prepared to waste my vote on someone whose probability of winning is less than 50%. Some Luhyas will definitely still vote for Raila, others for Wamalwa. If you understood Luhya politics, many Bukusu WILL NEVER vote for a Luhya from Maragoli since they don't even consider them Luhyas. If all these scattered Luhya votes happen, and they will, what will be Mudavadi's total votes even with a generous 40% of GEMA votes in his column? You and Tactician are chasing phantoms and fantasies.

now you happily say mudavadi is being taken for a ride,do you know if luhyas realize that uhuru goose is cooked because obviously they will vote raira.

Of course he is being taken for a ride, it is just the truth. Energizer not mentioning it will not change reality. Some Luhyas already knew that long ago and that is why only Khalwale and Kizito follow him around, but nothing surprising about that given Mudavadi's lazy campaign style. The suspicion and mistrust of GEMA is why Mudavadi has been unable to gain traction in Western which should have been 90% behind him by now, not 40%. If Mudavadi was as forceful and hardworking as Jirongo, he would have been unassailable by now in Western, yet he is still unable to do so even with State resources at his disposal. Can i then also ask you...do you know how Luhyas will react when they realise Mudavadi is being set up to be a Kibaki puppet post election, or worse, that he is being used to deflect attention away from Uhuru? Do you know why he lost his seat in 2002? You guys are hilarious:lol:

Uhuru will get huge share of the swing vote; The swing vote will be be swayed by money, resources and whoever seem able to nick it; Uhuru has the momentum.

Where uhuru won't be getting any votes is amongst the big 5 in round 1.

As for matusa, mijikenda, gusii,somali and iteso; they will split their vote;Uhuru has key allies in somalia like Hajji and Yusuf; Uhuru has Ongeri and many gusii mps; Uhuru has maa esp Kajiado yote; Uhuru has allies in Samburu. Uhuru has allies in coastal like Naomi and Lamu mps.

Bottomline; Uhuru will get his % (maybe 25-35%) of the swing region;

There you go again. Kenyans will just vote based on the predetermined tribal numbers and the maneno's of ICC, will not matter at all. ICC will most likely bar Uhuru from running but if for some strange reason does not, it will stop him from winning and if it does not, it will stop him from serving. ICC is Mbig and Uhuru cannot beat it. That is what is forcing kibaki's hands. None of you love Uhuru or are more nyomba than kibaki but he is a political realist. For us it does not matter whether he goes with Uhuru or mudamba. We are ready for one of them or both of them. Our is politics of issues and not MOAS.

Kichwa; you're stuck like broken record on ICC: i think we long resolved to sit that one out; we are now about 5 months to election; and about 3 months to Jan 15th (45 days to march) when nomination papers will be accepted by IEBC.

You basically have 90 days to stop IEBC from accepting nomination of Uhuru and Ruto.

When it come to 2013 and how pple will vote; we can already judge that passed on the leaders Uhuru has or seem to be attracting; if a key gusii leader like Ongeri or Nyachae backs Uhuru; you cannot go round and say Uhuru has zero support. If Naomi with his 20K Taita votes back Uhuru; i'll think Uhuru has a share of that; If Metito,Sakuda and Ole Koros are backing Uhuru; i'll give him a chunk of those votes.

We will see more MOAS as the rubber meet the road. You've had five yrs to sell your issues. Now is when we come and do the maths.

In any case we have 5 months to see whose theory will win.

Supporting Raila this era seems to demand letting go of logic, reasons and any sense. It like you need to make the most stupid of comments to justify the delusion.

Kichwa Mbaya wrote:There you go again. Kenyans will just vote based on the predetermined tribal numbers and the maneno's of ICC, will not matter at all. ICC will most likely bar Uhuru from running but if for some strange reason does not, it will stop him from winning and if it does not, it will stop him from serving. ICC is Mbig and Uhuru cannot beat it. That is what is forcing kibaki's hands. None of you love Uhuru or are more nyomba than kibaki but he is a political realist. For us it does not matter whether he goes with Uhuru or mudamba. We are ready for one of them or both of them. Our is politics of issues and not MOAS.

That's right. The chances and probabilities for Uhuru are far better than for Mudavadi when looked at as cold hardnosed facts. In any case, there are no guarantees in politics and one has to assess strategy by measuring the higher probability of achieving goals and succeeding, as opposed to measuring possible failure based on emotionalism and fear as Njuri and Tactician are doing. Kama ni mbaya ni mbaya, and we live with the consequences.

RV Pundit wrote:Uhuru will get huge share of the swing vote; The swing vote will be be swayed by money, resources and whoever seem able to nick it; Uhuru has the momentum.

Where uhuru won't be getting any votes is amongst the big 5 in round 1.

As for matusa, mijikenda, gusii,somali and iteso; they will split their vote;Uhuru has key allies in somalia like Hajji and Yusuf; Uhuru has Ongeri and many gusii mps; Uhuru has maa esp Kajiado yote; Uhuru has allies in Samburu. Uhuru has allies in coastal like Naomi and Lamu mps.

Bottomline; Uhuru will get his % (maybe 25-35%) of the swing region;

If you listen to those street kind of talk; you'll never amount to anything. If Ruto listened to that kind of reasoning; he would be selling chicken in turbo now.

It very strange that a candidate who already has 40%; by far the strongest; is being told to step down for somebody who cannot even make double digit score; somebody who is yet to wrap his home ground.

I think Uhuru is way smart for that nonsense.

What uhuru has done is to consolidate GEMA early enough. Now he need to go and make deal with influential leaders from the rest of communities. I would exclude BIG5 because it waste of time and strategy. Uhuru need to bolsters his numbers say in Gusii..by boosting Ongeri..talking to Nyachae..and such allies. He need to do the same in Coasts by adding Naomi, Lamu Mp and getting solid leaders from Digos and Giriama..he is doing badly at the coast. In Somali..i think Yusuf Haji and Yusuf can influence the big clans of degodia and ogaden... borana..he need to get influential leaders...

If uhuru scores 30%..about 0.5M votes from swing region...then he'll be somewhere around 40-42% in the first round. I think Bukusu won't play ball this time round.

Uhuru has incumbency to win 30% of it; Raila will get 30% based on the same incumbency. Ruto/Mudavadi/Kalonzo will do with 10% each.

In the second round contest btw him and Ruto; Uhuru just need to get one big community; and i don't think that is impossible for a man with so much money.

Energizer wrote:That's right. The chances and probabilities for Uhuru are far better than for Mudavadi when looked at as cold hardnosed facts. In any case, there are no guarantees in politics and one has to assess strategy by measuring the higher probability of achieving goals and succeeding, as opposed to measuring possible failure based on emotionalism and fear as Njuri and Tactician are doing. Kama ni mbaya ni mbaya, and we live with the consequences.

...But in all these analysis, dont forget the impact of ' Not another Kikuyu' .Raila will play it full swing and the impact could be damaging for Muthamaki
Never understimate the opponent.

Ruto or Raila will certainly make that argument. Uhuru will also have his argument. But i belief in second round what is important is who has the support of the losing party leadership. If Ruto can convince URP to support Uhuru because they;ll have a share in GOK largesses...kalenjin will vote Uhuru.

We know those arguments.

Not another kalenjin...during Moi era
A luo cannot be elected PORK...for most part till 2007..it still ran in many places.
Not another kikuyu...pretty much been there.
Anyone but Raila...ABR
Not another kenyatta...during 02 we heard about that.


Not another kikuyu can be balanced with Not a LUO plus not a Raila.

The best compromise candidate is Mudavadi (and Kalonzo); He is not making to second round.

Perhaps unless Ruto pass an hail mary in first round..and they go on join ticket with Mudavadi...where Muda go for Pork..and Ruto DPORK.. that way they go 40% versus 40% in first round....and Raila/Kalonzo get to decide the second round.

Petals wrote:...But in all these analysis, dont forget the impact of ' Not another Kikuyu' .Raila will play it full swing and the impact could be damaging for Muthamaki
Never understimate the opponent.

There is this tired line all Rvs keeping humming about. Ati Ruto can win? These MOAS generating lot can belive anything but its within their right to support their own. Who outside kalenjinstan can vote for Ruto? How did he and Mudavadi and Kalonzo Musyoka perform at the last By elections. I swear kyuk have real and permanent beef with kaleos. That and many more reasons will see Ruto go nowhere. Another question. Who between Ruto and Uhuru do the likes of HH et al support for presi? Ati Njuri is protesting what? Shauri yenu.