Kenya Talks

in 2007, Kibaki got 42% to 45% of the national vote.

Question:

Where will Uhuru get votes that Kibaki did not get in 2007? Nyanza? Western? Rift Valley? Coast?

if Uhuru runs, where will he get additional votes to get him past the 50% mark?

My hypothesis still remains: Uhuru must support another candidate; otherwise he will get into second round and lose to another 41 vs 1

Kibaki won the second round by getting ODM-K on board.Uhuru is on talking terms with G7; so making deal in second round if Raila is on is easy.

kibaki won with 46% to railas 44% and thats with anti kikuyu engine on wide open throttle. So kibaki was just 4%tage points to 50% even with the katikatiman kalonzo taking 9% of kibaki friendly votes.

I think you know raila is not near where he was in 2007 in popularity even ambitho knows.She says hes at 32% not the 46% in 2007.

So the question is with all that lost popularity and goodwill due to fallout, scandals, poor performance, etc etc where will raila get votes to outdo his performance in 2007?

Tactician wrote:in 2007, Kibaki got 42% to 45% of the national vote.

Question:

Where will Uhuru get votes that Kibaki did not get in 2007? Nyanza? Western? Rift Valley? Coast?

if Uhuru runs, where will he get additional votes to get him past the 50% mark?

My hypothesis still remains: Uhuru must support another candidate; otherwise he will get into second round and lose to another 41 vs 1

Close to 1 milion kibaki votes were rigged,Kibakis real votes were about 3.6 million.

Do you have that report? Please give us the link so we can read it too.

pajero wrote:Close to 1 milion kibaki votes were rigged,Kibakis real votes were about 3.6 million.

Kibaki was topping up to reach the 25% threshhold in atleast 5 provinces,Kisii Nyanza,Western and coast particularly.As of the report,am sure you were here in 2007.

If Uhuru is at 40% in the first round, expect those votes to remain intact for second round. Now, in the second round, Uhuru has a deficit of just 10%+1 to win. Question is: who between Raila and Ruto will be his second round opponent? Raila IS NOT the automatic second round opponent for Uhuru despite the most spirited media propaganda and spin, and which you seem to have swallowed whole as fact. Pundit has shown in brilliant fashion how unlikely Raila, save for some sort of last minute political deal, can make it to the second round. Even if Raila upstages Ruto, what can he offer Ruto that Uhuru cannot?
Who Uhuru's opponent is in the second round will therefore determine who he will talk to, and he has at least THREE possible negotiation partners he can make a deal with that will take him over 50%, but so will Ruto or Raila. Uhuru's advantage compared to Raila and Ruto is that out of the three possibles (Kalonzo, Mudavadi and either Ruto or Raila depending on who comes second), he needs to strike a deal with ONLY ONE of them, and he will, because he has very juicy carrots to offer.

You are assuming, very wrongly in my view, that 41 against 1 will be automatic just because Uhuru happens to be a Kikuyu. However, politics IS NOT an emotional exercise, it is a PRACTICAL and PRAGMATIC exercise ABOUT POWER where if one's political objectives are achieved, IT DOES NOT MATTER how it is done. The END JUSTIFIES THE MEANS, and that is why politics is such a ruthless profession.
Moi was talking to Kibaki and Karume on possible political deals even after the tribal clashes of 1992 - 1994 between Kalenjins and Kikuyus - the GEMA/KAMATUSA talks. Raila was talking to Kibaki and Wamalwa in 2002 even after he betrayed them by cooperating and then joining KANU in 2000. It is never about hatreds and rivalries, it is always about power and how to get it, and that is exactly what the second round deal making will be about. Hatreds and emotion are for the masses who have no clue what is going on, but will follow what their leaders tell them and make peace if told to do so.

40% is not something easily achievable the way you want to put it,Even when he ran in 2002 with half kikuyu and full kalenjin support he didnt achieve 30%.

When you talk of 40%,in absolute numbers,its 5 million of the registered population.Now can you go ahead and break the 5 million by tribe then we see where Uhuru is getting the 40% in the first round.Central as a whole has 1.9 registered,RV has 0.6 registered kikuyus,where are the other 2.5 million coming from??????

Dont just use numbers for the sake of it.

KIBAKI got 40% RAILA 40% and KALONZO got 10%
2% spoitl or for others
The rest of the 8% was rigged, and Kriegler said we dont know who of those WON

Tactician wrote:in 2007, Kibaki got 42% to 45% of the national vote.

Question:

Where will Uhuru get votes that Kibaki did not get in 2007? Nyanza? Western? Rift Valley? Coast?

if Uhuru runs, where will he get additional votes to get him past the 50% mark?

My hypothesis still remains: Uhuru must support another candidate; otherwise he will get into second round and lose to another 41 vs 1

You did not need Kreigler to know who stole.Otherwise we couldnt have had a night swearing in.

we will know the truth,not propaganda, after the 1st round . after all,the usual dead voters and double registration as witnessed in the just ended by-election ,in one region,has no chance of repeating this time round. raila is nowhere near 1st or 2nd. its been well articulated here with actual figures and especially , if it comes to tribal voting.

Raila will make it,your beef with Raila will not deny him the presidency,you have very limited choices to make,look it this way,
1.Raila and Uhuru ARE THE FRONT RUNNERS.(Fact,anything else is nipate fiction)
2.Ruto comes a distant third or fourth.(Ask even Ruto himself,he knows it,he has even admitted in kass).
3.Kenya is not a mornach where when the father is president,the son inherits him.
4.Kenyans want a change,a kikuyu presidency is not appealable.
5.The worst of all,Kikuyus and kalenjins will never mix their votes.

Now,go and cry

Madam, inaonekana hiyo msokoto yako ni kali na kubwa sana, inyonge mara moja tafadhali au ita kuumiza akili.
Last registered number of voters WAS NOT 5 million but 14.2 million. 40% of that is 5.68m which is well within Uhuru's reach considering how hard he has worked and the spectacular and steady progress he is making. Right now, Uhuru and TNA's performance is on everybody's lips. 40% is very possible. You are not even counting his votes from Embu, Meru and Nairobi in addition to Central and Central Rift, and those are just votes from his base alone. He will definitely get votes all across the country including Luo Nyanza. Consider for example that all the candidates who came second in the recent civic elections in Luo Nyanza were on TNA tickets, and even if they got only 15 - 20% of the cast votes, those are still votes in Uhuru's basket. If he can get that in a hostile region like Luo Nyanza of all places, what can he not get in other less hostile places like Kisii, NEP and Coast? You underestimate Uhuru at your peril.

pajero wrote:40% is not something easily achievable the way you want to put it,Even when he ran in 2002 with half kikuyu and full kalenjin support he didnt achieve 30%.

When you talk of 40%,in absolute numbers,its 5 million of the registered population.Now can you go ahead and break the 5 million by tribe then we see where Uhuru is getting the 40% in the first round.Central as a whole has 1.9 registered,RV has 0.6 registered kikuyus,where are the other 2.5 million coming from??????

Dont just use numbers for the sake of it.

In 2007 The total registered voters was about 12.5M however the total votes cast was about 9.8 M. 40% of which is just 3.9 M.

Turnout was high, total GEMA votes cast in Central, Upper Eastern, RV, Nairobi, Coast and the rest of diaspora was abt 2.9M. The remaining 1M votes represents non-gema votes and it comes from the rest of the regions.

pajero wrote:40% is not something easily achievable the way you want to put it,Even when he ran in 2002 with half kikuyu and full kalenjin support he didnt achieve 30%.

When you talk of 40%,in absolute numbers,its 5 million of the registered population.Now can you go ahead and break the 5 million by tribe then we see where Uhuru is getting the 40% in the first round.Central as a whole has 1.9 registered,RV has 0.6 registered kikuyus,where are the other 2.5 million coming from??????

Dont just use numbers for the sake of it.

Uhuru cannot win the presidency of Kenya with the ICC hanging over him. Kenyans are rational human beings who also act in their own interest. Kenyans will be told that Uhuru's presidency is not viable, because the west will not deal with him and the dononations that we depend so much will dry. That Kenya will become a priah state and Obama cannot even visit Kenyan in his second term if Uhuru is the president, will resonate and Uhuru will never be elected.