Kenya Talks

Moi won twice under the same system. The only thing he had extra was incumbency. Most of Moi vote was still from Kalenjin. What Ruto doesn't have is incumbency however we got 50% second round where the field get levelled.

And raila is not getting any significant votes outside luo nyanza. If kalenjin,gema, kamba and luhyas are not voting him; who do you think will vote him; Somalis

MigFighter wrote:There is this tired line all Rvs keeping humming about. Ati Ruto can win? These MOAS generating lot can belive anything but its within their right to support their own. Who outside kalenjinstan can vote for Ruto? How did he and Mudavadi and Kalonzo Musyoka perform at the last By elections. I swear kyuk have real and permanent beef with kaleos. That and many more reasons will see Ruto go nowhere. Another question. Who between Ruto and Uhuru do the likes of HH et al support for presi? Ati Njuri is protesting what? Shauri yenu.

If you ask me Uhuru has played this game extremely smart. Looking at all his allies and pointmen/women across the country, I think he he has played his cards right. He made his moves very early and thats why he had such a headstart on the likes of pnu and udfp. The remaining time is too short for them to catch up. I think this strategy of moving stealthily underground and emerging above ground at last minute has been displayed in kajiado where PNU and ODM have lost a large portion of maasai. PNU has now declared support for ole kiyapi but thats a little too late.

Anyone who has always thought TNA is only in central cant be more mistaken, and because of the sheeplike tendency of humans to want to follow the ''leading'' or ''strongest'' candidate, uhuru will eat into other G7 voting blocks. Case in point the maasai but especially in ukambani because even in '07 kalonzo could master only half, the other went to kibaki.

In general ukambani is railaphobic. so in the runoff uhuru will have collected enough votes that he will have a deficit of 10% max to win.

MigFighter wrote:There is this tired line all Rvs keeping humming about. Ati Ruto can win? These MOAS generating lot can belive anything but its within their right to support their own. Who outside kalenjinstan can vote for Ruto? How did he and Mudavadi and Kalonzo Musyoka perform at the last By elections. I swear kyuk have real and permanent beef with kaleos. That and many more reasons will see Ruto go nowhere. Another question. Who between Ruto and Uhuru do the likes of HH et al support for presi? Ati Njuri is protesting what? Shauri yenu.

So according to MigFighter noone can win without the support of Kikuyu? Or the presidential results will be based in the last by election?

Kambas have a beef with kikuyus,wait until we reach runoff,Merus too are beginning to feel uneasy (read Kiraitu),runoff may be 50:50 in meru,Luhyas will go 80% ODM,coast,NE,RV will all join the winning team.Railas greatest strenght in the forthcoming general elections is a kikuyu candidacy(Uhuru).The moment Uhuru is cleared to run,thats the beginning of Railas presidency.

50:50 eh? lets not beat around the bush ODM wont get much in central and same goes for TNA in Luo Nyanza.

I have lived amongst kambas and I guarantee you no way they voting Raila. They are riled by the boisterous rowdy behaviors. Personally I have nothing against Luos but the guy gunning for the top seat is just too crooked and incompetent. Uhuru is the strongest candidate against Raila if he were to make it to the runoff which I dont see happening. All panya routes have been sealed this time.

Its all good that you are confident but remember this time with electronic voting no chance for karata so we will know each mans real worth on the ballot.

pajero wrote:Kambas have a beef with kikuyus,wait until we reach runoff,Merus too are beginning to feel uneasy (read Kiraitu),runoff may be 50:50 in meru,Luhyas will go 80% ODM,coast,NE,RV will all join the winning team.Railas greatest strenght in the forthcoming general elections is a kikuyu candidacy(Uhuru).The moment Uhuru is cleared to run,thats the beginning of Railas presidency.