Kenya Talks • View topic - Any update from our hot-pursuit--see our army is stuck in some sand

Any update from our hot-pursuit--see our army is stuck in some sand

Discussion of general formal issues!

Postby RV Pundit » Tue Oct 25, 2011 9:47 am

Here is link http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethiopian_ ... ense_Force

Ethiopia military have 400,000 troops.

Kenya have what 40-60K troops. You need to send all to Somali.

And war is fighting--Military degrees from Egerton--won't help Kenya.
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Postby Terminator » Tue Oct 25, 2011 11:36 am

KDF strategy seems to be to minimize engagements that are more favorable to Al-Shabab. That means reducing or eliminating opportunities to get into disorganized engagements with the enemy. I guess you are expecting reports about Kenyan troops overrunning Afmadow after a fierce exchange of fire - Kenya army is not Mungiki; my take is they are planning to take Afmadow after demoralizing a waiting enemy with a steady dose of bombardment from the air; hitting them offering them no opportunity to hit back. They are also consolidating the territories they have captured. 2,000 well trained, equipped and disciplined troops is a big number in an African conflict. You just have to remember what kind of damage a force of 160 US army rangers inflicted on their much more numerous opponents in the Mogadishu battle; even though you like to think they were handed their asses.

I am sure the army could be in Kismayo today if it was just for the bravado aspect.
RV Pundit wrote:Any captured manyatta town?

Amfadow?

The dumbest war ever continues.

When we thought Dubya had waged enough dumb wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

We have kenya army with 2,000 infrantry invading a lawless somalia with apparently no plan; no objective;no real mandate from constitution or international law;no real support from international bodies;no support from somalis;no nothing. Just a shadowy suspicious dumb "war".

Well Maj Chirchir has gotten tired reporting capture of little deserted manyattas (towns :lol: );

Today we captured Muchata; Wanginge and we are advancing towards Ndumberere.
A bullet from a 14-year-old is just as effective as one from a 40-year-old. Often more effective.
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Postby WilsonWongg » Tue Oct 25, 2011 12:50 pm

RV Pundit wrote:...The kind of kenya you're describing is certainly NOT the one i'm in...

You're right about that.
RV Pundit wrote:Ethiopia military have 400,000 troops.

As for Geopolitics...if you think Ethiopia is inferior to kenya military..then clearly you're beyond help. Ethiopia and Eritrea economy maybe be grab...but those are military states. You can't compare Kenya and Ethiopia military..or in any other parameter except economy (though ethiopia have overtaken kenya recently).

Difficulty reading or just flogging a dead horse? Ethiopia doesn't have 400k troops. It actually says 182,500. That is still 3x KDF - and with 2/3 the budget. With 18 Su-27s (40 million US a piece) and 250 T-72s, among other hardware, how much money does that leave to train the pilots, tank commanders, officers and troops? Or even buy food? The Ethiopian army is cannon fodder. Nothing more. They pose no threat to KDF whatsoever.

RV Pundit wrote: And since you learnt about GeoPolitics recently (must be with azania nonsense); I can tell you for free that EGYPT since the time of Pharaohs have taken seriously NILE; this is not something that began recently; Without NIle; there is no Egypt. That is why Egypt colonilised Sudan. That is why Egypt sponsored Eritreans and support them. That is why Egypt support Ogaden and via Eritrea--the Al Shababs. And that is why Ethiopia have never known peace..and Egypt main priority is to make sure Ethiopia never have peace. That is why we have Nile treaty.

OK, Pundit, Nile Treaty 101: the Nile Water Agreement, granting Egypt the lion's share (87%) of the Nile waters and veto power over upstream projects, is a colonial relic whose aim was to pacify Egypt in order for Britain to advance her interests. On the other hand, the primary objective of the Nile Basin Initiative is to develop the Nile Basin water resources in a sustainable and equitable way in order to ensure prosperity, security, and peace for all its peoples.
As sub-Saharan Africa experiences a demographic boom, water security and agriculture become of paramount importance and upstream states demand new allocations of Nile water for their expanding populations, industrial capacity and agricultural growth. While the Source of the Nile is constantly ravaged by drought, Egypt and Sudan reap the full benefits of its water. In Egypt, vast commercial farms flourish and lush golf courses flank the river.
In addition to unfathomable quantities of every sort of industrial mineral imaginable, East and Central Africa is awash with oil and gas deposits. At the same time, dwindling oil reserves in the Middle East are expected to be depleted by mid-century. This makes East African hydrocarbons particularly appealing and gives the region significant leverage with Big League players. Whilst Egypt was sleeping snugly on her peace-with-US-and-Israel laurels, the world changed a tad. Global financial institutions and bilateral donors are no longer the only viable options. Egypt has been using her diplomatic clout to lobby Western institutions to deny loans to any upstream nations wanting to invest in water-harvesting projects. But as the dominant investor in Africa, China has complicated matters and has given sub-Saharan Africa the confidence to promote its own interests without the fear of Western intervention.
Despite its strategic importance, East Africa has been completely ignored by Egypt, which is oblivious to the changing balance of power and political context in East Africa. Israel, however, is not. Avigdor Lieberman, Israeli foreign minister led a high-powered delegation to East Africa in September 2009. The purpose of the mission was as much to compromise Egypt and keep her preoccupied with water security as it was to promote Israeli business interests. Kenya has adopted a very opportunistic diplomacy, with an aim to shifting donor reliance from traditional partners towards China, India and other emerging powers. Israel has read the script and reacted accordingly. Egypt has not.
Israel - perhaps for reasons of her own - is ready to share her experience in halting the desertification and turning the wilderness into arable land. Lieberman concluded several agreements through which Israel would finance and implement several massive water projects. This will require a more intensive utilisation of the waters of the Nile.
For all of Egypt’s sabre-rattling and diplomatic angling, the upstream riparian states clearly have no intention of backtracking on the Nile Treaty. It is up to Egypt and Sudan to join. It is obvious that Egypt is vitally reliant on the Nile and needs to develop a new strategy that is less concerned about maintaining regional hegemony. Egypt will have to accept the fact that the West will not indefinitely defend Egypt's interests against East Africa, whose strategic importance is increasing by the day. Greater effort should instead be invested in articulating a more equitable sharing of the river’s benefits. Egypt should start making concessions in exchange for guarantees instead of reverting to diplomatic blackmail and threats of jihad.

I would like to reiterate, Pundit, that your knowledge of regional geopolitics is rudimentary. Your awareness of Kenyan affairs beyond what happens on the street or what you read in the Daily Nation is unsophisticated. Your substitution of perfectly useful and acceptable words with epithets and expletive qualifiers is already legendary.

If you must have the last word, you may. I am satisfied that I have demonstrated your ignorance and unfamiliarity of these matters to anyone willing to read these posts and cannot expend more time arguing with you on this matter. It is a fruitless endeavour.
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Postby otishotish » Tue Oct 25, 2011 1:01 pm

"While the Source of the Nile is constantly ravaged by drought, Egypt and Sudan reap the full benefits of its water.'"

The people living at the source must be pretty stupid. I wonder who they are. :lol:

"East and Central Africa is awash with oil and gas deposits. At the same time, dwindling oil reserves in the Middle East are expected to be depleted by mid-century. This makes East African hydrocarbons particularly appealing and gives the region significant leverage with Big League players."

This is pretty funny. We have significant leverage with Big League players? Since when? What eveidence is there of this significant leverage? :mrgreen:

Last I checked whenever the price of oil (and other forms of hydrocarbons) produced elsewhere goes up, we end up in tears. :cry:

PUNDIT: Through Google one can find a lot of information on known oil and gas reserves around the world (by country and how much). People who compile such information and those who spend a lot of money to exploit it know very little compared to our GREAT NIPATE MILITARY EXPERT AND GEOPOLITICIAN. Here we are, awash in the stuff, exercising significant leverage on that account, and nobody knows it! Surely, life is not fair. :lol: :mrgreen: :lol:
Last edited by otishotish on Tue Oct 25, 2011 1:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby SPIdERMaN... » Tue Oct 25, 2011 1:29 pm

@wilson wogg
thanks for explaning to some doubters here what they cannot understand.
the likes of pundit are on this forumn only to defend RUTO co against acampo and the rest of kenyans.
everything else is secondary ..infact matters military are allien to them.
KENYA will eliminate alshabab wapende wasipende.
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Postby otishotish » Tue Oct 25, 2011 1:41 pm

SPIdERMaN... wrote:@wilson wogg
thanks for explaning to some doubters here what they cannot understand.
the likes of pundit are on this forumn only to defend RUTO co against acampo and the rest of kenyans.
everything else is secondary ..infact matters military are allien to them.
KENYA will eliminate alshabab wapende wasipende.


Spiderman, can you help me with these one, as I want to increase my knowledge of our beloved motherland:

"East and Central Africa is awash with oil and gas deposits."

Something simple will do, e.g. "Country X: Y barrels of known/proven reserves". I will then put these figures into existing lists covering the entire world, and we can all celebrate at seeing how blessed East and Central Africa. It will be a great day for Nipate!

Asante sana.

PS We can do the minerals later. Still, I notice that a place like Congo has always had those, but look at the place.
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Postby SPIdERMaN... » Tue Oct 25, 2011 2:20 pm

RV Pundit wrote:Here is link http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethiopian_ ... ense_Force

Ethiopia military have 400,000 troops.

Kenya have what 40-60K troops. You need to send all to Somali.

And war is fighting--Military degrees from Egerton--won't help Kenya.


wikipedia is not an authritative presentation on matters.anyone can log in and edit information to their taste and liking.
for your information the kenyan military senior officers undergo training in many world class insitutions in USA,BRITAIN,ISRAEL,GERMANY,PAKISTAN AND INDIA as a matter of routine.i am sure you know this.
The karen based national defence college is recognized worldwide for training officers above rank of colonel and beyond.
what they get at egerton is just basic degree course before advancing.
The ETHIOPIAN MILITARY IS USELESS.THEY WERE UNABLE to defeat eritrea.a small breakawy province of theirs.infact kenyan peacekeepers had to be sent in to stop ethiopians being overun by ERITREANS.
They came to somali chased away the islamic courts and since they lack administrative skills they failed to pacify the locals and hencethey became hated and had to retreat in disgrace.
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Postby WilsonWongg » Tue Oct 25, 2011 3:04 pm

otishotish wrote:"While the Source of the Nile is constantly ravaged by drought, Egypt and Sudan reap the full benefits of its water.'"

The people living at the source must be pretty stupid. I wonder who they are. :lol:

I'm guessing you're not entirely familiar with the Nile Water Agreement of 1929, amended 1959.

otishotish wrote:"East and Central Africa is awash with oil and gas deposits. At the same time, dwindling oil reserves in the Middle East are expected to be depleted by mid-century. This makes East African hydrocarbons particularly appealing and gives the region significant leverage with Big League players."

This is pretty funny. We have significant leverage with Big League players? Since when? What eveidence is there of this significant leverage? :mrgreen:


I'm guessing I've read a report or two that you haven't. This does not seem to be a very big deal.

otishotish wrote:Spiderman, can you help me with these one, as I want to increase my knowledge of our beloved motherland:

"East and Central Africa is awash with oil and gas deposits."

Something simple will do, e.g. "Country X: Y barrels of known/proven reserves". I will then put these figures into existing lists covering the entire world, and we can all celebrate at seeing how blessed East and Central Africa. It will be a great day for Nipate!

Why should Spiderman do your homework for you? Some things are not in the public domain, others are but you have to know where to look. You don't.

otishotish wrote:...People who compile such information and those who spend a lot of money to exploit it know very little compared to our GREAT NIPATE MILITARY EXPERT AND GEOPOLITICIAN. Here we are, awash in the stuff, exercising significant leverage on that account, and nobody knows it! Surely, life is not fair. :lol: :mrgreen: :lol:

People know it, you're just not one of them. And though I think Wikipedia is a wonderful tool, it is not a definitive authority by which anything can be disqualified. Ultimately, like everyone else on this forum, I'm merely expressing my opinion. I welcome you to challenge it but I expect you to be constructive. Saying "It can't be true because I haven't heard of it" is infantile at best. It exposes an ego as inflated as Pundit's with nothing tangible to back it up. Try using argumentation instead of merely deriding and ridiculing that which you are ignorant of. Till then, don't jump in the water if you can't swim.
I hope I have made you laugh again. A nervous reaction in the face of a challenge.
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Postby Mister Clean » Tue Oct 25, 2011 4:20 pm

Hi, I am new guy here, and actually I am curious about some of these things. How much oil and gas is it estimated that Uganda has? I think that will play a critical role in East African Affairs. Also, is a reliable source of information of this kind? Thanks.
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Postby otishotish » Tue Oct 25, 2011 4:33 pm

WilsonWongg wrote:
otishotish wrote:"While the Source of the Nile is constantly ravaged by drought, Egypt and Sudan reap the full benefits of its water.'"

The people living at the source must be pretty stupid. I wonder who they are. :lol:

I'm guessing you're not entirely familiar with the Nile Water Agreement of 1929, amended 1959.

otishotish wrote:"East and Central Africa is awash with oil and gas deposits. At the same time, dwindling oil reserves in the Middle East are expected to be depleted by mid-century. This makes East African hydrocarbons particularly appealing and gives the region significant leverage with Big League players."

This is pretty funny. We have significant leverage with Big League players? Since when? What eveidence is there of this significant leverage? :mrgreen:


I'm guessing I've read a report or two that you haven't. This does not seem to be a very big deal.

otishotish wrote:Spiderman, can you help me with these one, as I want to increase my knowledge of our beloved motherland:

"East and Central Africa is awash with oil and gas deposits."

Something simple will do, e.g. "Country X: Y barrels of known/proven reserves". I will then put these figures into existing lists covering the entire world, and we can all celebrate at seeing how blessed East and Central Africa. It will be a great day for Nipate!

Why should Spiderman do your homework for you? Some things are not in the public domain, others are but you have to know where to look. You don't.

otishotish wrote:...People who compile such information and those who spend a lot of money to exploit it know very little compared to our GREAT NIPATE MILITARY EXPERT AND GEOPOLITICIAN. Here we are, awash in the stuff, exercising significant leverage on that account, and nobody knows it! Surely, life is not fair. :lol: :mrgreen: :lol:

People know it, you're just not one of them. And though I think Wikipedia is a wonderful tool, it is not a definitive authority by which anything can be disqualified. Ultimately, like everyone else on this forum, I'm merely expressing my opinion. I welcome you to challenge it but I expect you to be constructive. Saying "It can't be true because I haven't heard of it" is infantile at best. It exposes an ego as inflated as Pundit's with nothing tangible to back it up. Try using argumentation instead of merely deriding and ridiculing that which you are ignorant of. Till then, don't jump in the water if you can't swim.
I hope I have made you laugh again. A nervous reaction in the face of a challenge.


Ndugu Wong, welcome back! First, let me say that when it comes to military matters, you are way above my league! I mean you have read the Art of War! Wow! Same for geopolitics. I cannot compete with you on that one; so I will not even try. The things you know are simply too amazing.

As for significant leverage, I do not doubt your knowledge but I ask simply because I wonder about it: During the Wiper`s shuttle diplomacy, he got all African countries on board and we even heard that African countries would withdraw en masse from the ICC if the Kenyan case was not deferred. We all know what happened+ they went to America and Europe and were sent away. In the matter of Libya, America and Europe did not even pretend to listen to Africa. I am not sure that anyone actually listens to Africans, which is why I call upon your superior knowledge to enlighten us. So, what is this significant leverage and how do we use it? I ask because I think you really understand geo-politics. I mean just that stuff about the Nile blew me into another world. Wow! I actually suspect you are a top UN diplomat or something (in disguise, so to speak).

As for East and Central Africa being awash with oil, there are many sources other than Wikpedia for such information; Nipateans can just use Google on their own to confirm that. But again, I take my hat off to you when it comes to dodging: some people think you simply make an assertion, regardless of the known facts, and when challenged you simply say that you are reading reports that nobody else in the world has and people should do their homework etc. I think they are wrong, but if it is the case, then WOW! Brilliant!

(On a personal note, my father-in-law is in the senior management one of the world`s biggest oil companies, pretty much all over the world; so as soon as you give us some figures of where and how much, we can have a pretty quick check from other sources. Not that we doubt you, but I think our compatriots here would probably like to improve their knowledge and have an independent check, as they do not have access to the same sources that a person of your calibre does.)

Anyway, I hope that one day you will share all these top secrets with us so that we too may "know where to look". :mrgreen:

Your are a funny guy Ndugu Wong! Very funny! :lol: :lol: :mrgreen: :lol: :lol:
Last edited by otishotish on Tue Oct 25, 2011 5:06 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Postby WilsonWongg » Wed Oct 26, 2011 12:00 am

otishotish wrote:...On a personal note, my father-in-law is in the senior management one of the world`s biggest oil companies, pretty much all over the world...


Congratulations! I see you are now substantiating your arguments.
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Postby RV Pundit » Wed Oct 26, 2011 12:20 am

Quick ones.
1) Ethiopia military is SUPERIOR to kenya; in whatever parameter you chose; Kenya so called Budget is cut down by half due to corruption; DOD procurement is perhaps the worse--only the opaqueness helps it. Gen Mohamoud own 80% of Garissa and many properties in Nairobi precisely because of that. See F15 mess; German/Spanish Ship, Nanyuki airbase (3b) that can't operate at night. Why would ethiopia have be more arsenal than Kenya--yet kenya have never been to war--and spend twice on that?

Ethiopia military have been on nearly all wars in Africa; They stormed to Mogadishu in 1 week; You're stuck in Mud for weeks now; 5ksm to Amfadow; now i hear 7kms? Egypt Military is perhaps secondly only to South Africa.....

Some of idiots here really are smoking illegal stuff.

2) Nile river is 80-85% from LAKE TANA in Ethiopia. Kenya maybe account for 5% of it; Uganda 5%; Rwanda 5%; Congo 5%. Number one policy priority for Egypt has always been River Nile...and that essentially mean Ethiopia.

3) There is indeed lots of Oil in Turkana-Pokot (same rock formation with South sudan and North Uganda)...Eastern Ethiopia,Somalia, Isiolo and along the Coast have Oil with same rock formation as Saudi Arabia.
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Postby WilsonWongg » Wed Oct 26, 2011 1:59 am

RV Pundit wrote:Quick ones.
1) Ethiopia military is SUPERIOR to kenya; in whatever parameter you chose;

Again, can you substantiate this claim with some tangible facts? Repeating a statement ad nauseam is not substantiation.
RV Pundit wrote:Quick ones.
... Kenya so called Budget is cut down by half due to corruption; DOD procurement is perhaps the worse--only the opaqueness helps it. Gen Mohamoud own 80% of Garissa and many properties in Nairobi precisely because of that.

Is there corruption in Kenya? Yes. Is there corruption in Ethiopia? Yes.
RV Pundit wrote:Quick ones.
...Why would ethiopia have be more arsenal than Kenya--yet kenya have never been to war--and spend twice on that?

I actually think you know the answer to this question. You can't be that dumb.
RV Pundit wrote:Quick ones.
Ethiopia military have been on nearly all wars in Africa; They stormed to Mogadishu in 1 week;

...and have been beaten almost every time. Thank you. A clear indication of their military capability.
RV Pundit wrote:Quick ones.
You're stuck in Mud for weeks now; 5ksm to Amfadow

Actually, it's only been about a week since the offensive began. Terminator's response above is quite accurate. Read.
RV Pundit wrote:Quick ones.
Egypt Military is perhaps secondly only to South Africa.....

Egypt could actually beat the crap out of SADF - assuming it could project its military power that far. It could also beat the shit out of KDF - assuming it could project its military power that far. It can't. It just doesn't have the capability to project. Their only real world enemies are in Israel and Tahrir square. There are only a handful of nations on this planet that can 1) pull off such an expedition logistically, 2) afford it.
RV Pundit wrote:Quick ones.
2) Nile river is 80-85% from LAKE TANA in Ethiopia. Kenya maybe account for 5% of it; Uganda 5%; Rwanda 5%; Congo 5%. Number one policy priority for Egypt has always been River Nile...and that essentially mean Ethiopia.

85 + 5 + 5 + 5 + 5 actually = 105%. Then there is Tanzania and Burundi.
The Nile Basin Initiative was formally launched in February 1999. In May 2010, Ethiopia (80-85%, see above), Kenya (5%), Uganda (5%), Rwanda (5%), Burundi and Tanzania signed a Cooperative Framework Agreement to seek more water from the River Nile. The DRC (5%) is also expected to sign. That more-or-less covers the source of the Nile.
Incidentally, a 20% drop in the flow of the Nile (Kenya 5%; Uganda 5%; Rwanda 5%; Congo 5%) would spell complete disaster for Egypt.
RV Pundit wrote:Quick ones.
3) There is indeed lots of Oil in Turkana-Pokot (same rock formation with South sudan and North Uganda)...Eastern Ethiopia,Somalia, Isiolo and along the Coast have Oil with same rock formation as Saudi Arabia.

At least we agree on something. You can tell this to otishotish and his big-shot father-in-law.
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Postby RV Pundit » Wed Oct 26, 2011 3:53 am

The WIlsonfool,

You seem to enjoy the polemics and completely succeed in missing the main points.

1) You concede Ethiopia military spend less..but somehow have more arsenal than kenya? Care tell us how? Ethiopia military "failures" are mainly due to
coups and Counter-coups...but country certainly can bounce back within a tinkling of your eye. Reason...like Egyptian..these are very old old monarchies/state who understand their stuff. KDF is just better armed KAR (kenya africa Rifle) with little history dogged by corruption. KDF so plagued by tribalism..kibaki feared deploying them during PEV. You wonder if kenya can recover from one mishap where military takes tribal sides?

3) On supposed superior kDF stuck in desert...in your polemics..you said they've been there for a week..and you forget where Ethiopian forces were in a week :lol:

2) On Nile basin...Let deal with facts..You haven't contested the fact that Ethiopia account for 80-85% of Nile water...mainly from Lake Tana. Nile basin initiative [EA] for egypt is storm in the tea cup...the real deal for them is what happens in Lake Tana. Let Ethiopia mess up with Lake Tana..and you'll see Egypt colonilise Sudana and Ethiopia in a minute.

Before you hit us with more polemics...some gumbaro will do..


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_poli ... Nile_Basin

I expect you will analyses every word of my retort. Begin with THE... then WISLONFOOL.
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Postby Energizer » Wed Oct 26, 2011 4:31 am

Interesting info on Ugandan and East Africa oil potential here:

http://digitaljournal.com/article/269940

http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/ ... erest.html

Recent discoveries of vast oil reserves, particularly the oil rich Albertine Graben, with estimated reserves of at least 2.5 billion barrels of oil, mean Uganda is set to become a key oil producer on a par with other African oil producing nations, such as neighboring Sudan, Angola, Nigeria and Equatorial Guinea. Some estimate place the Albertine Graben reserve as high as six billion barrels of recoverable oil.



Uganda – Oil Reserves To Rival Saudi Arabia?

http://crossedcrocodiles.wordpress.com/ ... di-arabia/

Could Uganda Be the Next Niger Delta?

http://www.pipelinedreams.org/2011/08/c ... ger-delta/

Meanwhile, over in Tanzania:

In terms of mineral diversity and wealth, Tanzania is ranked fourth after South Africa, Democratic Republic of Congo and Nigeria..

http://www.diplomateastafrica.com/index ... ed-wealth-

East African mineral opportunities:

http://www.eacinvestmentconference.com/ ... nities-i...

Meanwhile in Kenya:

http://books.google.co.ke/books?id=e57Z ... -LsMAc&hl=

..Heavy mineral reserves in Coastal Kenya total 5300 million tonnes (5.3 billion tonnes). The titanium deposits account for 40% of the worlds known unexploited reserves and are claimed to be worth trillions of US dollars on the world market..


Who said Kenya is not potentially very wealthy?

With Uganda's unexploited Oil wealth, Tanzanian mineral resources and Kenya's unexploited Oil an Titanium, an East African Federation of these countries plus Rwanda, Burundi, South Sudan and DRC including the combined human resource base would make for a potentially very powerful country. However, with US/NATO/EU vultures circling above, will that ever happen?
Could those special forces troops Obama sent to 'fight LRA' be the vanguard of a much bigger invasion in an effort to control and plunder this wealth for their own benefit, not ours? Note that Africa holds 55% of all the world's unexploited mineral wealth.
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