RV Pundit wrote:...The kind of kenya you're describing is certainly NOT the one i'm in...
You're right about that.
RV Pundit wrote:Ethiopia military have 400,000 troops.
As for Geopolitics...if you think Ethiopia is inferior to kenya military..then clearly you're beyond help. Ethiopia and Eritrea economy maybe be grab...but those are military states. You can't compare Kenya and Ethiopia military..or in any other parameter except economy (though ethiopia have overtaken kenya recently).
Difficulty reading or just flogging a dead horse? Ethiopia doesn't have 400k troops. It actually says 182,500. That is still 3x KDF - and with 2/3 the budget. With 18 Su-27s (40 million US a piece) and 250 T-72s, among other hardware, how much money does that leave to train the pilots, tank commanders, officers and troops? Or even buy food? The Ethiopian army is cannon fodder. Nothing more. They pose no threat to KDF whatsoever.
RV Pundit wrote: And since you learnt about GeoPolitics recently (must be with azania nonsense); I can tell you for free that EGYPT since the time of Pharaohs have taken seriously NILE; this is not something that began recently; Without NIle; there is no Egypt. That is why Egypt colonilised Sudan. That is why Egypt sponsored Eritreans and support them. That is why Egypt support Ogaden and via Eritrea--the Al Shababs. And that is why Ethiopia have never known peace..and Egypt main priority is to make sure Ethiopia never have peace. That is why we have Nile treaty.
OK, Pundit, Nile Treaty 101: the Nile Water Agreement, granting Egypt the lion's share (87%) of the Nile waters and veto power over upstream projects, is a colonial relic whose aim was to pacify Egypt in order for Britain to advance her interests. On the other hand, the primary objective of the Nile Basin Initiative is to develop the Nile Basin water resources in a sustainable and equitable way in order to ensure prosperity, security, and peace for all its peoples.
As sub-Saharan Africa experiences a demographic boom, water security and agriculture become of paramount importance and upstream states demand new allocations of Nile water for their expanding populations, industrial capacity and agricultural growth. While the Source of the Nile is constantly ravaged by drought, Egypt and Sudan reap the full benefits of its water. In Egypt, vast commercial farms flourish and lush golf courses flank the river.
In addition to unfathomable quantities of every sort of industrial mineral imaginable, East and Central Africa is awash with oil and gas deposits. At the same time, dwindling oil reserves in the Middle East are expected to be depleted by mid-century. This makes East African hydrocarbons particularly appealing and gives the region significant leverage with Big League players. Whilst Egypt was sleeping snugly on her peace-with-US-and-Israel laurels, the world changed a tad. Global financial institutions and bilateral donors are no longer the only viable options. Egypt has been using her diplomatic clout to lobby Western institutions to deny loans to any upstream nations wanting to invest in water-harvesting projects. But as the dominant investor in Africa, China has complicated matters and has given sub-Saharan Africa the confidence to promote its own interests without the fear of Western intervention.
Despite its strategic importance, East Africa has been completely ignored by Egypt, which is oblivious to the changing balance of power and political context in East Africa. Israel, however, is not. Avigdor Lieberman, Israeli foreign minister led a high-powered delegation to East Africa in September 2009. The purpose of the mission was as much to compromise Egypt and keep her preoccupied with water security as it was to promote Israeli business interests. Kenya has adopted a very opportunistic diplomacy, with an aim to shifting donor reliance from traditional partners towards China, India and other emerging powers. Israel has read the script and reacted accordingly. Egypt has not.
Israel - perhaps for reasons of her own - is ready to share her experience in halting the desertification and turning the wilderness into arable land. Lieberman concluded several agreements through which Israel would finance and implement several massive water projects. This will require a more intensive utilisation of the waters of the Nile.
For all of Egypt’s sabre-rattling and diplomatic angling, the upstream riparian states clearly have no intention of backtracking on the Nile Treaty. It is up to Egypt and Sudan to join. It is obvious that Egypt is vitally reliant on the Nile and needs to develop a new strategy that is less concerned about maintaining regional hegemony. Egypt will have to accept the fact that the West will not indefinitely defend Egypt's interests against East Africa, whose strategic importance is increasing by the day. Greater effort should instead be invested in articulating a more equitable sharing of the river’s benefits. Egypt should start making concessions in exchange for guarantees instead of reverting to diplomatic blackmail and threats of jihad.
I would like to reiterate, Pundit, that your knowledge of regional geopolitics is rudimentary. Your awareness of Kenyan affairs beyond what happens on the street or what you read in the Daily Nation is unsophisticated. Your substitution of perfectly useful and acceptable words with epithets and expletive qualifiers is already legendary.
If you must have the last word, you may. I am satisfied that I have demonstrated your ignorance and unfamiliarity of these matters to anyone willing to read these posts and cannot expend more time arguing with you on this matter. It is a fruitless endeavour.