Kenya Talks

As per CONFIRMED IEBC 2010 REFERENDUM VOTER REGISTER:

1. NEP Revised numbers:
North Eastern – 33045 21477 9033 12465 10133 23967 23835 21760 18283 29356 28574 = 231,928

With average voter turnout @ 65% = 150,753

Thus possible Uhuru numbers @ 30% of average turnout = 45,225

2.Upper Eastern Revised numbers:
Upper Eastern – 30517 20516 16231 19838 33434 11840 = 132,376

With average voter turnout @ 65% = 86,044

Possible Uhuru numbers @ 30% = 25,813

3. Lower Eastern revised numbers
Lower Eastern – 63594 59657 55504 58734 37025 47286 43402 50035 86389 93515 77595 64057 65165 34558 43385 82955 76951 = 1,039,447

With average voter turnout @ 80% = 831,558

Possible Uhuru numbers @ 10% - 83,159

4. Rift revised numbers:
North Rift (Turkana North, Central and South) – 41270 48886 26210 = 116,366
North Rift ( Kacheliba, Kapenguria, Sigor) - 21693 50051 43054 = 114,798
North Rift (Samburu West/East) - 41677 15127 = 56804
North Rift (Kwanza, Saboti, Cherangany) - 60261 105719 55883 = 221,863
North Rift (Eldoret North/East/South, Marakwet East/West, Keiyo North/South, Mosop, Aldai, Emgwen, Tinderet) - 135065 79377 83816 24001 34507 29510 42093 57023 53494 73785 69952 = 682,623

Total Reg North Rift = 1,192,454

Average voter turnout @ 85% = 1,013,586

Possible Uhuru numbers @ 5% in KAMATUSA regions (970,591x 85% (825,002) x 5%) = 41,250.
Possible 15% in Kwanza, Saboti and Cherangany factoring diaspora GEMA voters plus other kabilas = 221,863 x 85%(188,583) x 15% = 28,287.

Total possible Uhuru North Rift = 69,537


Central Rift (Baringo East/North/Central, Mogotio, Eldama Ravine) – 16626 33687 54741 23245 39449 = 167,748.
Central Rift (Laikipia West/East) - 84167 69107 = 153,274
Central Rift (Naivasha, Nakuru) - 137370 138399 = 275,769
Central Rift (Kuresoi, Molo, Rongai, Subukia) - 78392 110898 57518 74587 = 321,395

Total Reg Central Rift = 918,186

Average voter turnout – 85% = 780,458

Possible Uhuru numbers @ 5% in Tugen regions (128,299 x 85%(109,054) x 5% = 5,452.
Possible 30% in Eldama Ravine due to GEMA diaspora(39449 x 85%(33532) x 5% = 1,676.
Possible 90% in Laikipia West (84167x85%x90% = 64,388
Possible 80% in Laikipia East (69107x85%x80% = 51,510
Possible 90% in Naivasha (137370x85%x90% = 105,088
Possible 60% in Nakuru (138399 x 85%x60% = 70,583.

Total possible Uhuru Central Rift = 298,697

South Rift (Kilgoris, Narok North/South) – 70601 67913 82772 = 221,286
South Rift (Kajiado North/Central/South) - 120760 48427 38432 = 207,619
South Rift (Bomet, Chepalungu, Sotik, Konoin, Buret, Belgut, Ainamoi, Kipkelion) = 77383 51519 63478 50981 60765 72874 56662 72717 = 506,379

Total Reg South Rift = 935,284

Average voter turnout – 85% = 794,991

Possible Uhuru numbers Kilgoris Naroks @ 5% = 221,286x85%x5% = 9,404
Possible Uhuru numbers whole Kajiado @ 70% = 207,619x85%x70% = 123,533
Possible Uhuru numbers South Rift Kipsigis Ndani @ 5% = 506,379x85%x5% = 21521

Total possible Uhuru South Rift = 154,458

Total Registered Rift – 3,045,924

Total average turnout Rift @ 85% = 2,589,035

Total possible for Uhuru in Entire Rift = 69,537+298,697+154,458 = 522,692


5.Central Eastern revised numbers
Central Eastern – 76405 61256 44301 50829 104414 64272 79441 104139 45392 76193 67995 47226 34298 = 856,161

Average voter turnout – 85% = 727,737

Possible Uhuru numbers @ 95% = 691,350

6. Central region revised numbers:
Central – 80254 37747 82453 39516 40478 78381 75978 48024 42405 61108 76228 64293 49004 56268 37559 41378 83597 56240 63624 71037 73843 55184 49100 186049 70489 105521 116827 62002 54131 = 1,959,168

Average voter turnout – 85% = 1,665,293

Possible Uhuru numbers @ 95% = 1,582,028

7. Nyanza region revised numbers:
Luo Nyanza – 64124 62216 50592 49722 44796 59042 91604 48696 45786 46899 44147 61867 51792 60001 48765 61275 55792 34911 42782 31643 29143 = 1,085,595

Kuria – 54693

Kisii – 33583 41327 65925 60745 42663 49029 71620 69229 54925 75958 = 565,004

TOTAL NYANZA REGION = 1,705,292

Average voter turnout – 80% = 1,364,233

Possible Uhuru numbers @ 2% in Luo Nyanza(1,085,595x85%x2%) = 18,455
@20% in Kuria(54,693x70%x20%) = 7,657
@ 30% in Kisii(565,004x80%x30%) = 135,600.

Total possible Uhuru Nyanza region = 161,712

8. Western region revised numbers:
Western (Kakamega region – Malava, Lugari, Mumias, Matungu, Lurambi, Shinyalu, Ikolomani, Butere, Khwisero) - 61841 93853 66422 41668 96057 57420 35833 48162 35192 = 536,448
Western (Vihiga region – Emuhaya, Sabatia, Vihiga, Hamisi) - 66482 47949 34012 52211 = 200,654
Western (Bungoma region – Mt Elgon) – 51,845
Western(Bungoma region – Bukusu) - Kimilili, Webuye, Sirisia, Kanduyi, Bumula) - 81562 67510 67176 68148 51600 = 335,996
Western ( Teso region - Amagoro) – 77,823
Western ( Busia region – Nambale, Butula, Funyula, Budalangi ) - 61096 37435 32250 22909 = 153,690

Total Western = 1,356,456

Average voter turnout – 70% = 949,519

Possible Uhuru numbers @ 5% in Kakamega = 18,775
1% in Vihiga = 1,404
5% in Mt Elgon = 1,816
5% in Bungoma = 11,760
2% in Teso and Busia.= 2,151

Total possible Uhuru Western region – 35,907

9. Coast region revised numbers:
Coast (Mombasa) – Changamwe, Kisauni, Likoni, Mvita - 91483 115360 50378 67837 = 325,058.
South Coast – Msambweni, Matuga Kinango - 68949 41719 51206 = 161,874
North Coast (Kilifi County) – Bahari, Kaloleni, Ganze, Malindi, Magarini - 83811 67599 34405 70478 36110 = 292,403
North Coast (Tana River County) – Garsen, Galole, Bura - 27840 19007 22399 = 69246
North Coast ( Lamu County) - Lamu East, Lamu West - 9181 28886 = 38067
Taita/Taveta (Taveta, Wundanyi, Mwatate, Voi - 21349 25604 30825 32660 = 110438

Total Registered Coast = 997,086

Possible average voter turnout - 50% = 498,543

Possible Uhuru numbers @ 20% in Mombasa(with 60% turnout) = 39,006
@ 5% in South Coast = 3,238
@ 10% in Kilifi = 11,696
@ 30% in Tana River = 8,309
@ 60% in Lamu(with 70% turnout) = 15,988
@ 30% in Taita/Taveta with 70% turnout = 23,192.

Total possible Uhuru Coast – 101,429

10. Nairobi region revised numbers:
Nairobi – 125492 132162 136630 161,408 122496 138105 181783 294153 = 1,292,229

Average voter turnout – 70% = 904,560

Possible Uhuru numbers @ 45% = 407,052

TOTAL REVISED REGISTERED VOTERS – 12,616,627
TOTAL REVISED POSSIBLE AVERAGE VOTER TURNOUT :
150,753 + 86,044 + 831,558 + 2,586,035 + 727,737 + 1,665,293 + 1,364,233 + 949,519 + 498,543 + 904,560 = 9,764,275


Possible Uhuru first round numbers by region, not 100% but maybe 80% accurate and based on educated guess i.e 2007 parliamentary vote numbers (which were not disputed) and percentage voter turnouts in swing regions for Kibaki, and which Uhuru could inherit, but taking into account effect of new players like Ruto. I have also not factored a running mate as it is not clear who that will be. It is also based on anticipated voter turnout with reference to past turnout performance as recorded in link below:

http://www.scribd.com/doc/3339642/Offic ... -elections

TOTAL POSSIBLE UHURU VOTES FROM ALL REGIONS =3,656,367

As percentage of total registered voters at average turnout – 3,656,367/9,764,275x100 = 37.44%

Margin required to top 50%+1 threshold – 12.66%

Note: Above figures can used to determine numbers for other Presidential candidates as well, and also in which counties each candidate can attain 25%, plus how many he can win.

Let me know your thoughts and we can discuss tomorrow.

Thanks. Though we disagree in a few areas...it nearly mirrors mine. Our % are 100% PERFECT.

My total votes for Uhuru 3,409,555 which translate 37%(36.98%) of my projected 9.2M votes. I think 200K difference is on our turn out projections.

So basically we are agreed.

I hope you can find time do proper MOAS with all the candidates.

Of course once IEBC do proper biometric registration; we can get to number CRUNCHING with NEW BOUNDARIES that are even more homogeneous tribe and voting wise. It will make our work quite easier.

Excellent. Awesome JOB!

First class as usual. Thanks Energiser

Let us give credit where credit is due, good job

This burst the myth that kalonzo with his 10% ca help UHuru in first round, to close the deal in round one uhuru needs raila or ruto least we are going to round 2

I think Uhuru is struggling to carry along Kibaki NON_GEMA constituency; in fact those figures might drop to Kibaki's 1997 of 36%.

Of course these figures do not yet capture RUNNING MATES impact.

For Uhuru--it either Ongeri--just add him 2% or Wamalwa--add him max 4% or a thud (1%);

So Uhuru figures will max out at 40%. That is his very BEST. His worse case scenario is 38%.

One thing for SURE; NOBODY CAN NICK IT IN FIRST ROUND.

Ole Ole wrote:Let us give credit where credit is due, good job

This burst the myth that kalonzo with his 10% ca help UHuru in first round, to close the deal in round one uhuru needs raila or ruto least we are going to round 2

I can't believe the amount of time you people seem to be able to put into this PORK predictions.

kwani whats in it for you. and to think all this is in support of Kenyas biggest beneficiary of the land injustices that are a mill stone round Kenya's neck. The person almost certainly guaranteed to continue protecting corruption and impunity as the TOAD has done.

You people are probably comfortably patched someplace enjoying the fruits of corruption and impunity

@Energizer, Thanks for the splendid job! This analysis demonstrates what I have been saying all along, that the polls being done by pollsters based on raw population figures are useless. They are misleading and a waste of money. They only serve to massage jakoms ego, making him over confident and complacent but in reality the picture on the ground is very different. You can see how frantic he has become once he started loosing against uhuru in opinion polls. The truth is the margin between him an uhuru is much wider than he thinks.

It would be nice to have a detailed one on jakom, I am sure the numbers will be much lower than what the pollsters have been presenting to us.

Energizer Here are my summaries; some of them; we seem to agree 100%
Nairobi 395,002 (42%) versus 405,000
Coast 101,708(21%)
NEP 29,139 (25%)
Eastern 613,813 (46%) versus 770,000?
Central 1,509,446(97%) versus 1,580,000
Rift Valley 598,208(24%) versus 522,000
Western 5,377 (1%) versus 35,000
Nyanza 140,452(10%) versu 160,000

Just do the rest of MOAS; otherwise we are on the same page.

So far in my MOAS; Ruto and Raila are neck to neck at 20%.

@Energizer, Thanks for the splendid job! This analysis demonstrates what I have been saying, that the polls being done by pollsters based on raw population figures are misleading and a waste of money because they don't give the true picture on the ground.

It would be nice to have a detailed one on Raila, I am sure the numbers will be much lower than what the pollsters have been presenting to us.

Pundit, will do so today and revert. @Ole Ole and my2cents, thanks.

Way it looks, Ruto will be Rao's running mate and hit 40% going by your MOAs. Kalonzo will gang up with UK. The deal will include running mates from different parties with pre-election deals for splitting cabinet jobs, etc

Going by Pundit MOAs:

Rao-Ruto = 40%
Uhuru-Wiper = 45%


Messi will be the kingmaker; so basically the question for Messi will be who he would like as PORK given his future ambitions, Gema or non-Gema?
Same question will apply if Ruto runs 1st round, loses and has to decide between Rao and Uhuru. He can consolidate non-Gema in 2017 if UK wins. If Raila wins, well its a different ballgame in 2017.

Uhuru stands a better chance of winning if Raila goes to run-off than if run-off is against Ruto.

Mudavadi is as good as dead if Uhuru runs,80% western will go ODM.

I will do one on all the remaining Big 5. I will even tweak all the numbers including Uhuru's using actual voting numbers including spoilt ballots, instead of using registered numbers, to determine a more accurate voter turnout based on the referendum.

my2cents wrote:@Energizer, Thanks for the splendid job! This analysis demonstrates what I have been saying all along, that the polls being done by pollsters based on raw population figures are useless. They are misleading and a waste of money. They only serve to massage jakoms ego, making him over confident and complacent but in reality the picture on the ground is very different. You can see how frantic he has become once he started loosing against uhuru in opinion polls. The truth is the margin between him an uhuru is much wider than he thinks.

It would be nice to have a detailed one on jakom, I am sure the numbers will be much lower than what the pollsters have been presenting to us.

I would rather you interview people,You cant manufacture numbers from your head.

You should do a SWOT analysis on the way you think

pajero wrote:I would rather you interview people,You cant manufacture numbers from your head.