Kichwa unlike you i never entertain fantasies. I deal with the reality as it as..not as we wish. This opinion polls are not only premature but they are no better than just popularity contest; so of who is more visible.
This isn't my first time having turf wars with opinion pollster..refer to referendum and prove me wrong.
You know we have about six month to election proper; so basically we really don't have to sweat it anymore; I have maintained my position since 2008 that Uhuru and Gema have it within them; I haven't seen anything that has changed that view. You've also maintained that suddenly we will see a sea of change when Kenya will suddenly elect leaders based on something beyond their clan,family, region and tribes.
Anyway back to opinion polls; I think from Ambitho nonsense; Eastern and Nyanza look to have sort of firmed up. Raila scored 78% in Nyanza...i believe he scored nearly 100% in Luo Nyanza..and about 50% in Gusii. That seem about right though dynamics will change if Ongeri is paired with Uhuru as i very strongly suspect.
Eastern is okay. It Uhuru and Kalonzo place. Raila scored 5%. Ruto scored 4%. We only have about 10% Oromos (borana, rendilles, etc) who are swinging in Eastern.
Central; I don't need rocket science to know Uhuru will carry 97%. I'm even prepared to slaughter a bull for you if Uhuru scores less than that. So Ambitho telling us Uhuru scores just 55% and Raila get 12%...is JUST BALOGNI. Raila, Ruto, Mudavadi and Kalonzo will share 3%...each getting less than 1%.
RV is where pollsters get it wrong every time. Even during the referendum they said Nos will get 30-40%. In the end the NOS scored 65%. RV due to it comspolitan and large nature is easy to get wrong. They say Ruto get 36%...Raila 18%..Uhuru 12%.. BALOGNI. Ruto will score 55-60%.Uhuru will score 20-25%.Wamalwa 12%. Th rest will share remainder 10%. Raila will score less than 5% in RV...if he get half MATUSA votes.
Basically as you can see; Raila numbers should be HALVED to 17%. Uhuru numbers should be DOUBLED to 34%. Ruto numbers should be doubled to 20%.
The rest are details; I think Mudavadi and Kalonzo are going nowhere..except if they were to be need for compromise candidate..of course ROUND 1 and 50% requirement has changed the dynamics..so no need for MOU until first round.
TRIBAL FORCES are just too strong. That is why Kikuyu musicians have started. Now you don't want to imagine the kind of sublime below the radar REAL POLITIK campaign in rural kenya.
Kichwa Mbaya wrote:Pundito, I know this is your tuff, but it is starting to look as if Jakom has a lock on 35-40% as his national base. That is pretty impressive to start from even if I agree with you that it is too early.
This numbers also consistently affirm my submission that there is a solid base of Kenyans who are firmly on the change/reform side and should be subtracted from your tribal math.
This is very encouraging to those of us who believe that Kenyans may not be after all hopelessly tribal. I also understand why you will be quick to dismiss this explanation because it renders the basis of your entire political narrative invalid. Your narrative that we as kenyans are only motivated by tribe is the reason why you reject this numbers, however, that narrative cannot explain the political behavior of Kenyans consistently gravitating towards change over the last 20 years.
To a reformist like me, Kenya is a shining example why gradual change is better than revolutions in form of failed military coups that took place in west Africa.
While you see Raila as disadvantaged by age and having ran for president for a long time, I see this as an advantage with Kenyan people who prefer his current pragmatism and experience to change/reform than his earlier more radical brand of reform.
I think this is a better explanation of the steady consistent 35-40%, than your dismissal of the polls as doctored.