Kenya Talks

[Energizer]

This G7 single candidate talk is just a red herring by JaCON diehards burying their heads in the sand.
The reality is that Uhuru - TNA, Ruto - URP, Kalonzo - Wiper, MM - UDF are all going to run separately for first round; they have no choice. All this talk of a G7 single candidate is just that - wishful thinking by ignorant and malicious media types meant to divert attention from the serious failings of JaCON whose numbers are plummeting like a broken down lift.
Everybody agrees that Uhuru will make it to second round. The real issue the JaCONites do not want to face is just one: will Raila make it to the second round against Ruto? If so, how? What are his REAL numbers outside the surreal and fanciful Ambitho witchcraft and palm reading? That is what should concern the ODM leaning media.

[Reeves]

So he wont make it, why dont you just let it go? Si I thought you already concluded that there will be a friendly between Uhuru and Ruto, so whats the problem? Stop your obsession with RAO, get a life or go capmaign for Ruto or Uhuru, just stop bothering us here with the same rubbish that you seem to have a problem believing....

This G7 single candidate talk is just a red herring by JaCON diehards burying their heads in the sand.
The reality is that Uhuru - TNA, Ruto - URP, Kalonzo - Wiper, MM - UDF are all going to run separately for first round; they have no choice. All this talk of a G7 single candidate is just that - wishful thinking by ignorant and malicious media types meant to divert attention from the serious failings of JaCON whose numbers are plummeting like a broken down lift.
Everybody agrees that Uhuru will make it to second round. The real issue the JaCONites do not want to face is just one: will Raila make it to the second round against Ruto? If so, how? What are his REAL numbers outside the surreal and fanciful Ambitho witchcraft and palm reading? That is what should concern the ODM leaning media.

[ole Nkarei]

This G7 single candidate talk is just a red herring by JaCON diehards burying their heads in the sand.
The reality is that Uhuru - TNA, Ruto - URP, Kalonzo - Wiper, MM - UDF are all going to run separately for first round; they have no choice. All this talk of a G7 single candidate is just that - wishful thinking by ignorant and malicious media types meant to divert attention from the serious failings of JaCON whose numbers are plummeting like a broken down lift.
Everybody agrees that Uhuru will make it to second round. The real issue the JaCONites do not want to face is just one: will Raila make it to the second round against Ruto? If so, how? What are his REAL numbers outside the surreal and fanciful Ambitho witchcraft and palm reading? That is what should concern the ODM leaning media.

That Uhuruto will run the first round separately has been stated over and over again in their Campaign Offices for months. But JaCon (as you call him) desperately seeks to create divisions in G7 (understandably) by painting them as disunited - so that Uhuruto running separately is given connotations of a disunited greedy front.

A win for Raila at this tiime hinges on his playing the GEMA against the rest of Kenya, which is his favourite strategy that removed him from the Luo-Nyanza Casket into a National Constituency in 2007. However, It is doubtful that Raila's would be so utterly reckless this time to resuscitate the insidious 41-against-1 plan (in first and second round) simply because (a)such would reconfirm the accusations and suspicions of his direct involvement (and Miguna and Gachoka are making credible accusations of his involvement) in PEV2008 - ICC will be here watching and listening; and (b) he would require some tribal KYM (Ruto was his primary KYM) to run this tribal mathematics, and it is unlikely anyone would buy into this scheme after hearing Raila pronouncing loudly that Kila-mtu-aubebe-msalaba-wake after PEV2008. Mashenani pia wameeruvuka sana joo!. (c) Raila will be very busy himself fending off the ICC and other interested international busy-bodies of the damaging allegations of his direct involvement in plannnig and executing the PEV2008 - he will not get involved even directly in any of this tribe-against-that-tribe rubbish he coined in 2005-07. (d), Raila and Mungiki are now in bed, publically, and hence he almost exclusively now holds the instruments in Gava and out of Gava for visiting election violence on Kenyans, this time around -if Mungiki torches houses in Molo, Raila will be hardpressed to distance himself from this action in the eyes of Kenyans and international watches.

I cannot see how Raila generates the numbers to win a first round, and I cannot imagine either how Raila wins a second round without the devilish 41-against-1 strategy - which I have discounted to be entirely improbable this time around.

Haya, lete matusi, kama kawaida!!

[Reeves]

Nkarei, Matusi is noramally from you Uhuruto guys, the rest of us just read your stuff and get amused once in a while and irritated when rubbed the wrong way, We are way above izo ,nyinyi ndio mna matusi...What we are waiting for ni Kura so we can teach you a lesson you will talk about for years to come....

This G7 single candidate talk is just a red herring by JaCON diehards burying their heads in the sand.
The reality is that Uhuru - TNA, Ruto - URP, Kalonzo - Wiper, MM - UDF are all going to run separately for first round; they have no choice. All this talk of a G7 single candidate is just that - wishful thinking by ignorant and malicious media types meant to divert attention from the serious failings of JaCON whose numbers are plummeting like a broken down lift.
Everybody agrees that Uhuru will make it to second round. The real issue the JaCONites do not want to face is just one: will Raila make it to the second round against Ruto? If so, how? What are his REAL numbers outside the surreal and fanciful Ambitho witchcraft and palm reading? That is what should concern the ODM leaning media.

That Uhuruto will run the first round separately has been stated over and over again in their Campaign Offices for months. But JaCon (as you call him) desperately seeks to create divisions in G7 (understandably) by painting them as disunited - so that Uhuruto running separately is given connotations of a disunited greedy front.

A win for Raila at this tiime hinges on his playing the GEMA against the rest of Kenya, which is his favourite strategy that removed him from the Luo-Nyanza Casket into a National Constituency in 2007. However, It is doubtful that Raila's would be so utterly reckless this time to resuscitate the insidious 41-against-1 plan (in first and second round) simply because (a)such would reconfirm the accusations and suspicions of his direct involvement (and Miguna and Gachoka are making credible accusations of his involvement) in PEV2008 - ICC will be here watching and listening; and (b) he would require some tribal KYM (Ruto was his primary KYM) to run this tribal mathematics, and it is unlikely anyone would buy into this scheme after hearing Raila pronouncing loudly that Kila-mtu-aubebe-msalaba-wake after PEV2008. Mashenani pia wameeruvuka sana joo!. (c) Raila will be very busy himself fending off the ICC and other interested international busy-bodies of the damaging allegations of his direct involvement in plannnig and executing the PEV2008 - he will not get involved even directly in any of this tribe-against-that-tribe rubbish he coined in 2005-07. (d), Raila and Mungiki are now in bed, publically, and hence he almost exclusively now holds the instruments in Gava and out of Gava for visiting election violence on Kenyans, this time around -if Mungiki torches houses in Molo, Raila will be hardpressed to distance himself from this action in the eyes of Kenyans and international watches.

I cannot see how Raila generates the numbers to win a first round, and I cannot imagine either how Raila wins a second round without the devilish 41-against-1 strategy - which I have discounted to be entirely improbable this time around.

Haya, lete matusi, kama kawaida!!

[RV Pundit]

I've ran the maths and i just don't see how Raila will beat Ruto.
Let define the assumptions:

1) We are "all" agreed that each of top 5 have their strongholds.
2) We also all agreed that Uhuru is running alone with 35-40% in the first round. Only a fool doesn't know how strong GEMA are in voting terms.
3) We also agreed on improbability of anyone nicking in first round.

The battle therefore is btw Ruto and Raila for second round.

Ruto begin with 1.5M from RV. Raila begin with 1.1M (or 1M depending on how Gusii wind flow).

For Raila to catch up with Ruto he need 400-500K votes..and Ruto need not gain any. The worse case scenario for Ruto is to gain 50K on average for 7 province. Let say Ruto is just doing that badly.

That makes the gap btw Ruto and Raila; 750-850K. Note; We've already factored Gusii-Kuria of Nyanza in these maths.

We know Central, Eastern (upper ngamia eastern is just too few votes) and NEP are just irrelevant in NDP case; Give Raila 30K in each. That makes it. 100K.

That leaves Raila needing 650K votes in Nairobi,Coast, RV and Western.

In RV..i just don't see where Raila will get that many votes..Kajiado is gone to TNA..Narok is URP..Samburu total votes are maybe 50K; about 25K each from two samburu; The 3 Turkanas is about 90K or even less if Turkana forget to vote. Now split those votes into 3; So in RV Raila will be lucky to get 100K total votes. Mostly like 50K but grant him 100K.

Western? Raila can only breath in part of Busia; assuming Mudavadi wave doesn't reach there; he'll be lucky to get 50k votes; but let be generous give him 100K.That is about 15% of Western.

Nairobi and Coast. ODM as it strength got 280K in Nairobi 2007 and 350K in Coast. Peel the mask..luhya go that way..small tribes split into five parties...and you have Luo voting pop of 120K..plus 30K from others..150K.

Coast will split into 5 portions if MRC allows them to vote freely and fairly. Grant Raila even 40% (hehehe) of total coast votes (2007--0.6M)..200K votes.

As you can see Raila total votes outside Nyanza 600K. 150-250K short of Ruto worse case scenario.

[ole Nkarei]

@Reeves - let me debunk your simplistic supposition that everyone who criticizes Raila and the dangerously rhetorical hysteria of his increasingly diminishing support-base must of needs be an Uhuruto Supporter. At least I am not. But while I don't pretend to be any more reasonably / rational than most, I am sickened to my stomach by the exchanges that took place on on-line foras such as this one in the lead-up to the General Elections of 2007. Almost impossible to credit some of the grossly primitive pronoucement here to anyone with intelligence!! Plausibly rational fellas of superior education who are really the National Treasure of this Nation in very clearly treasonous exchanges that contributed in a large measure to the dangerously Ethnicized polarization of our Nation using very disingenuous, lofty and heardy ''intellectual'' arguments to hide the obvious bullshit in content. So I determine to contribute my two-bits, which you dismiss to be merely supporting Uhuruto? How?? And without even the intergrity to adduce a reasoned and well packaged counter =-argument you can only hide your lacking of substantive insight behind a delusional cloak of invisibility (ati ''we are waiting for ni Kura so we can teach you a lesson you will talk about for years to come....'') and a pretext to a superior understanding of Kenyan political and demographic matters (hoo [/b]'We are way above izo ,nyinyi ndio mna matusi..'') 'by simplistic statements without facts? Waacha hiyo, bana wee!!

Nkarei, Matusi is noramally from you Uhuruto guys, the rest of us just read your stuff and get amused once in a while and irritated when rubbed the wrong way, We are way above izo ,nyinyi ndio mna matusi...What we are waiting for ni Kura so we can teach you a lesson you will talk about for years to come....

This G7 single candidate talk is just a red herring by JaCON diehards burying their heads in the sand.
The reality is that Uhuru - TNA, Ruto - URP, Kalonzo - Wiper, MM - UDF are all going to run separately for first round; they have no choice. All this talk of a G7 single candidate is just that - wishful thinking by ignorant and malicious media types meant to divert attention from the serious failings of JaCON whose numbers are plummeting like a broken down lift.
Everybody agrees that Uhuru will make it to second round. The real issue the JaCONites do not want to face is just one: [b]will Raila make it to the second round against Ruto? If so, how? What are his REAL numbers outside the surreal and fanciful Ambitho witchcraft and palm reading? That is what should concern the ODM leaning media.

That Uhuruto will run the first round separately has been stated over and over again in their Campaign Offices for months. But JaCon (as you call him) desperately seeks to create divisions in G7 (understandably) by painting them as disunited - so that Uhuruto running separately is given connotations of a disunited greedy front.

A win for Raila at this tiime hinges on his playing the GEMA against the rest of Kenya, which is his favourite strategy that removed him from the Luo-Nyanza Casket into a National Constituency in 2007. However, It is doubtful that Raila's would be so utterly reckless this time to resuscitate the insidious 41-against-1 plan (in first and second round) simply because (a)such would reconfirm the accusations and suspicions of his direct involvement (and Miguna and Gachoka are making credible accusations of his involvement) in PEV2008 - ICC will be here watching and listening; and (b) he would require some tribal KYM (Ruto was his primary KYM) to run this tribal mathematics, and it is unlikely anyone would buy into this scheme after hearing Raila pronouncing loudly that Kila-mtu-aubebe-msalaba-wake after PEV2008. Mashenani pia wameeruvuka sana joo!. (c) Raila will be very busy himself fending off the ICC and other interested international busy-bodies of the damaging allegations of his direct involvement in plannnig and executing the PEV2008 - he will not get involved even directly in any of this tribe-against-that-tribe rubbish he coined in 2005-07. (d), Raila and Mungiki are now in bed, publically, and hence he almost exclusively now holds the instruments in Gava and out of Gava for visiting election violence on Kenyans, this time around -if Mungiki torches houses in Molo, Raila will be hardpressed to distance himself from this action in the eyes of Kenyans and international watches.

I cannot see how Raila generates the numbers to win a first round, and I cannot imagine either how Raila wins a second round without the devilish 41-against-1 strategy - which I have discounted to be entirely improbable this time around.

Haya, lete matusi, kama kawaida!!

[Reeves]

See?, I was right after all, Matusi is your preserve, wacha nijipe shugli...

@Reeves - let me debunk your simplistic supposition that everyone who criticizes Raila and the dangerously rhetorical hysteria of his increasingly diminishing support-base must of needs be an Uhuruto Supporter. At least I am not. But while I don't pretend to be any more reasonably / rational than most, I am sickened to my stomach by the exchanges that took place on on-line foras such as this one in the lead-up to the General Elections of 2007. Almost impossible to credit some of the grossly primitive pronoucement here to anyone with intelligence!! Plausibly rational fellas of superior education who are really the National Treasure of this Nation in very clearly treasonous exchanges that contributed in a large measure to the dangerously Ethnicized polarization of our Nation using very disingenuous, lofty and heardy ''intellectual'' arguments to hide the obvious bullshit in content. So I determine to contribute my two-bits, which you dismiss to be merely supporting Uhuruto? How?? And without even the intergrity to adduce a reasoned and well packaged counter =-argument you can only hide your lacking of substantive insight behind a delusional cloak of invisibility (ati ''we are waiting for ni Kura so we can teach you a lesson you will talk about for years to come....'') and a pretext to a superior understanding of Kenyan political and demographic matters ([b]hoo [/b]'We are way above izo ,nyinyi ndio mna matusi..'') 'by simplistic statements without facts? Waacha hiyo, bana wee!!

Nkarei, Matusi is noramally from you Uhuruto guys, the rest of us just read your stuff and get amused once in a while and irritated when rubbed the wrong way, We are way above izo ,nyinyi ndio mna matusi...What we are waiting for ni Kura so we can teach you a lesson you will talk about for years to come....

]

[Energizer]

That is exactly what this EA Standard fellow Juma Kwayera, and who was one of the media journalists in the thick of that 41 against 1 campaign in 2007, is really up to with this article today: http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/?article ... Uhuru-deal

The whole idea is to insinuate that Ruto and Mudavadi are furious with Uhuru for consolidating his GEMA backyard in bringing the scattered GEMA-centric parties like PNU, APK, DP and GNU together under one roof. Why would someone like Ruto be mad at Uhuru for doing this, when, first of all, he has nothing to lose in Uhuru consolidating GEMA? Secondly, it was Ruto who told Uhuru to consolidate his house first before they could engage in any structured party to party talks about any pre or post election deals. Has the same media that reported that already forgotten? MM IS NOT even a member of G7, and his relationship with G7 personalities is one on one, separately and with different individuals at any one time.
Clearly, this kind of devilish tribal baiting to demonise Uhuru and GEMA by extension as untrustworthy people not worth doing political deals with, is already in full gear.

This G7 single candidate talk is just a red herring by JaCON diehards burying their heads in the sand.
The reality is that Uhuru - TNA, Ruto - URP, Kalonzo - Wiper, MM - UDF are all going to run separately for first round; they have no choice. All this talk of a G7 single candidate is just that - wishful thinking by ignorant and malicious media types meant to divert attention from the serious failings of JaCON whose numbers are plummeting like a broken down lift.
Everybody agrees that Uhuru will make it to second round. The real issue the JaCONites do not want to face is just one: will Raila make it to the second round against Ruto? If so, how? What are his REAL numbers outside the surreal and fanciful Ambitho witchcraft and palm reading? That is what should concern the ODM leaning media.

That Uhuruto will run the first round separately has been stated over and over again in their Campaign Offices for months. But JaCon (as you call him) desperately seeks to create divisions in G7 (understandably) by painting them as disunited - so that Uhuruto running separately is given connotations of a disunited greedy front.

A win for Raila at this tiime hinges on his playing the GEMA against the rest of Kenya, which is his favourite strategy that removed him from the Luo-Nyanza Casket into a National Constituency in 2007. However, It is doubtful that Raila's would be so utterly reckless this time to resuscitate the insidious 41-against-1 plan (in first and second round) simply because (a)such would reconfirm the accusations and suspicions of his direct involvement (and Miguna and Gachoka are making credible accusations of his involvement) in PEV2008 - ICC will be here watching and listening; and (b) he would require some tribal KYM (Ruto was his primary KYM) to run this tribal mathematics, and it is unlikely anyone would buy into this scheme after hearing Raila pronouncing loudly that Kila-mtu-aubebe-msalaba-wake after PEV2008. Mashenani pia wameeruvuka sana joo!. (c) Raila will be very busy himself fending off the ICC and other interested international busy-bodies of the damaging allegations of his direct involvement in plannnig and executing the PEV2008 - he will not get involved even directly in any of this tribe-against-that-tribe rubbish he coined in 2005-07. (d), Raila and Mungiki are now in bed, publically, and hence he almost exclusively now holds the instruments in Gava and out of Gava for visiting election violence on Kenyans, this time around -if Mungiki torches houses in Molo, Raila will be hardpressed to distance himself from this action in the eyes of Kenyans and international watches.

I cannot see how Raila generates the numbers to win a first round, and I cannot imagine either how Raila wins a second round without the devilish 41-against-1 strategy - which I have discounted to be entirely improbable this time around.

Haya, lete matusi, kama kawaida!!

[Energizer]

This is the kind of realistic maths that leaves JaCONites like Kichwa and Reeves frothing at the mouth, apoplectic with rage and endlessly ranting about chapter 6, their last, rotting straw.

I've ran the maths and i just don't see how Raila will beat Ruto.
Let define the assumptions:

1) We are "all" agreed that each of top 5 have their strongholds.
2) We also all agreed that Uhuru is running alone with 35-40% in the first round. Only a fool doesn't know how strong GEMA are in voting terms.
3) We also agreed on improbability of anyone nicking in first round.

The battle therefore is btw Ruto and Raila for second round.

Ruto begin with 1.5M from RV. Raila begin with 1.1M (or 1M depending on how Gusii wind flow).

For Raila to catch up with Ruto he need 400-500K votes..and Ruto need not gain any. The worse case scenario for Ruto is to gain 50K on average for 7 province. Let say Ruto is just doing that badly.

That makes the gap btw Ruto and Raila; 750-850K. Note; We've already factored Gusii-Kuria of Nyanza in these maths.

We know Central, Eastern (upper ngamia eastern is just too few votes) and NEP are just irrelevant in NDP case; Give Raila 30K in each. That makes it. 100K.

That leaves Raila needing 650K votes in Nairobi,Coast, RV and Western.

In RV..i just don't see where Raila will get that many votes..Kajiado is gone to TNA..Narok is URP..Samburu total votes are maybe 50K; about 25K each from two samburu; The 3 Turkanas is about 90K or even less if Turkana forget to vote. Now split those votes into 3; So in RV Raila will be lucky to get 100K total votes. Mostly like 50K but grant him 100K.

Western? Raila can only breath in part of Busia; assuming Mudavadi wave doesn't reach there; he'll be lucky to get 50k votes; but let be generous give him 100K.That is about 15% of Western.

Nairobi and Coast. ODM as it strength got 280K in Nairobi 2007 and 350K in Coast. Peel the mask..luhya go that way..small tribes split into five parties...and you have Luo voting pop of 120K..plus 30K from others..150K.

Coast will split into 5 portions if MRC allows them to vote freely and fairly. Grant Raila even 40% (hehehe) of total coast votes (2007--0.6M)..200K votes.

As you can see Raila total votes outside Nyanza 600K. 150-250K short of Ruto worse case scenario.

[ole Nkarei]

Come Kenyan. Drop the condescension, and lets engage like rational intelligent equals, bana!! Eeiish!!

See?, I was right after all, Matusi is your preserve, wacha nijipe shugli...

@Reeves - let me debunk your simplistic supposition that everyone who criticizes Raila and the dangerously rhetorical hysteria of his increasingly diminishing support-base must of needs be an Uhuruto Supporter. At least I am not. But while I don't pretend to be any more reasonably / rational than most, I am sickened to my stomach by the exchanges that took place on on-line foras such as this one in the lead-up to the General Elections of 2007. Almost impossible to credit some of the grossly primitive pronoucement here to anyone with intelligence!! Plausibly rational fellas of superior education who are really the National Treasure of this Nation in very clearly treasonous exchanges that contributed in a large measure to the dangerously Ethnicized polarization of our Nation using very disingenuous, lofty and heardy ''intellectual'' arguments to hide the obvious bullshit in content. So I determine to contribute my two-bits, which you dismiss to be merely supporting Uhuruto? How?? And without even the intergrity to adduce a reasoned and well packaged counter =-argument you can only hide your lacking of substantive insight behind a delusional cloak of invisibility (ati ''we are waiting for ni Kura so we can teach you a lesson you will talk about for years to come....'') and a pretext to a superior understanding of Kenyan political and demographic matters ([b]hoo [/b]'We are way above izo ,nyinyi ndio mna matusi..'') 'by simplistic statements without facts? Waacha hiyo, bana wee!!

Nkarei, Matusi is noramally from you Uhuruto guys, the rest of us just read your stuff and get amused once in a while and irritated when rubbed the wrong way, We are way above izo ,nyinyi ndio mna matusi...What we are waiting for ni Kura so we can teach you a lesson you will talk about for years to come....

]

[Reeves]

Energiser, you remind me of Miguna, excessive use of verbs and vocubulary that really says nothing, nyinyi pigeni hesabu, mimi nangoja Kura, in the meantime, i will enjoy the ride...

This is the kind of realistic maths that leaves JaCONites like Kichwa and Reeves frothing at the mouth, apoplectic with rage and endlessly ranting about chapter 6, their last, rotting straw.

I've ran the maths and i just don't see how Raila will beat Ruto.
Let define the assumptions:

1) We are "all" agreed that each of top 5 have their strongholds.
2) We also all agreed that Uhuru is running alone with 35-40% in the first round. Only a fool doesn't know how strong GEMA are in voting terms.
3) We also agreed on improbability of anyone nicking in first round.

The battle therefore is btw Ruto and Raila for second round.

Ruto begin with 1.5M from RV. Raila begin with 1.1M (or 1M depending on how Gusii wind flow).

For Raila to catch up with Ruto he need 400-500K votes..and Ruto need not gain any. The worse case scenario for Ruto is to gain 50K on average for 7 province. Let say Ruto is just doing that badly.

That makes the gap btw Ruto and Raila; 750-850K. Note; We've already factored Gusii-Kuria of Nyanza in these maths.

We know Central, Eastern (upper ngamia eastern is just too few votes) and NEP are just irrelevant in NDP case; Give Raila 30K in each. That makes it. 100K.

That leaves Raila needing 650K votes in Nairobi,Coast, RV and Western.

In RV..i just don't see where Raila will get that many votes..Kajiado is gone to TNA..Narok is URP..Samburu total votes are maybe 50K; about 25K each from two samburu; The 3 Turkanas is about 90K or even less if Turkana forget to vote. Now split those votes into 3; So in RV Raila will be lucky to get 100K total votes. Mostly like 50K but grant him 100K.

Western? Raila can only breath in part of Busia; assuming Mudavadi wave doesn't reach there; he'll be lucky to get 50k votes; but let be generous give him 100K.That is about 15% of Western.

Nairobi and Coast. ODM as it strength got 280K in Nairobi 2007 and 350K in Coast. Peel the mask..luhya go that way..small tribes split into five parties...and you have Luo voting pop of 120K..plus 30K from others..150K.

Coast will split into 5 portions if MRC allows them to vote freely and fairly. Grant Raila even 40% (hehehe) of total coast votes (2007--0.6M)..200K votes.

As you can see Raila total votes outside Nyanza 600K. 150-250K short of Ruto worse case scenario.

[Energizer]

Good for you. I am sure you will be at the polling station at 2.00am on polling day.

Energiser, you remind me of Miguna, excessive use of verbs and vocubulary that really says nothing, nyinyi pigeni hesabu, mimi nangoja Kura, in the meantime, i will enjoy the ride...

This is the kind of realistic maths that leaves JaCONites like Kichwa and Reeves frothing at the mouth, apoplectic with rage and endlessly ranting about chapter 6, their last, rotting straw.

I've ran the maths and i just don't see how Raila will beat Ruto.
Let define the assumptions:

1) We are "all" agreed that each of top 5 have their strongholds.
2) We also all agreed that Uhuru is running alone with 35-40% in the first round. Only a fool doesn't know how strong GEMA are in voting terms.
3) We also agreed on improbability of anyone nicking in first round.

The battle therefore is btw Ruto and Raila for second round.

Ruto begin with 1.5M from RV. Raila begin with 1.1M (or 1M depending on how Gusii wind flow).

For Raila to catch up with Ruto he need 400-500K votes..and Ruto need not gain any. The worse case scenario for Ruto is to gain 50K on average for 7 province. Let say Ruto is just doing that badly.

That makes the gap btw Ruto and Raila; 750-850K. Note; We've already factored Gusii-Kuria of Nyanza in these maths.

We know Central, Eastern (upper ngamia eastern is just too few votes) and NEP are just irrelevant in NDP case; Give Raila 30K in each. That makes it. 100K.

That leaves Raila needing 650K votes in Nairobi,Coast, RV and Western.

In RV..i just don't see where Raila will get that many votes..Kajiado is gone to TNA..Narok is URP..Samburu total votes are maybe 50K; about 25K each from two samburu; The 3 Turkanas is about 90K or even less if Turkana forget to vote. Now split those votes into 3; So in RV Raila will be lucky to get 100K total votes. Mostly like 50K but grant him 100K.

Western? Raila can only breath in part of Busia; assuming Mudavadi wave doesn't reach there; he'll be lucky to get 50k votes; but let be generous give him 100K.That is about 15% of Western.

Nairobi and Coast. ODM as it strength got 280K in Nairobi 2007 and 350K in Coast. Peel the mask..luhya go that way..small tribes split into five parties...and you have Luo voting pop of 120K..plus 30K from others..150K.

Coast will split into 5 portions if MRC allows them to vote freely and fairly. Grant Raila even 40% (hehehe) of total coast votes (2007--0.6M)..200K votes.

As you can see Raila total votes outside Nyanza 600K. 150-250K short of Ruto worse case scenario.

[bryan275]

Always good to see the usual Punch and Judy politics going full frontal.....

[Robina]

i really luv your "maths" which school did you attend? can you run for Obama and Romney?

I've ran the maths and i just don't see how Raila will beat Ruto.
Let define the assumptions:

1) We are "all" agreed that each of top 5 have their strongholds.
2) We also all agreed that Uhuru is running alone with 35-40% in the first round. Only a fool doesn't know how strong GEMA are in voting terms.
3) We also agreed on improbability of anyone nicking in first round.

The battle therefore is btw Ruto and Raila for second round.

Ruto begin with 1.5M from RV. Raila begin with 1.1M (or 1M depending on how Gusii wind flow).

For Raila to catch up with Ruto he need 400-500K votes..and Ruto need not gain any. The worse case scenario for Ruto is to gain 50K on average for 7 province. Let say Ruto is just doing that badly.

That makes the gap btw Ruto and Raila; 750-850K. Note; We've already factored Gusii-Kuria of Nyanza in these maths.

We know Central, Eastern (upper ngamia eastern is just too few votes) and NEP are just irrelevant in NDP case; Give Raila 30K in each. That makes it. 100K.

That leaves Raila needing 650K votes in Nairobi,Coast, RV and Western.

In RV..i just don't see where Raila will get that many votes..Kajiado is gone to TNA..Narok is URP..Samburu total votes are maybe 50K; about 25K each from two samburu; The 3 Turkanas is about 90K or even less if Turkana forget to vote. Now split those votes into 3; So in RV Raila will be lucky to get 100K total votes. Mostly like 50K but grant him 100K.

Western? Raila can only breath in part of Busia; assuming Mudavadi wave doesn't reach there; he'll be lucky to get 50k votes; but let be generous give him 100K.That is about 15% of Western.

Nairobi and Coast. ODM as it strength got 280K in Nairobi 2007 and 350K in Coast. Peel the mask..luhya go that way..small tribes split into five parties...and you have Luo voting pop of 120K..plus 30K from others..150K.

Coast will split into 5 portions if MRC allows them to vote freely and fairly. Grant Raila even 40% (hehehe) of total coast votes (2007--0.6M)..200K votes.

As you can see Raila total votes outside Nyanza 600K. 150-250K short of Ruto worse case scenario.

[RV Pundit]

I don't get your sarcasm. Obama maths is 95% of blacks. 90% of ever democrats whites. And the fight is really who win the Hispanics and independent. As you can see identity politics is everywhere.

i really luv your "maths" which school did you attend? can you run for Obama and Romney?