Energizer wrote:This G7 single candidate talk is just a red herring by JaCON diehards burying their heads in the sand.
The reality is that Uhuru - TNA, Ruto - URP, Kalonzo - Wiper, MM - UDF are all going to run separately for first round; they have no choice. All this talk of a G7 single candidate is just that - wishful thinking by ignorant and malicious media types meant to divert attention from the serious failings of JaCON whose numbers are plummeting like a broken down lift.
Everybody agrees that Uhuru will make it to second round. The real issue the JaCONites do not want to face is just one: will Raila make it to the second round against Ruto? If so, how? What are his REAL numbers outside the surreal and fanciful Ambitho witchcraft and palm reading? That is what should concern the ODM leaning media.
That Uhuruto will run the first round separately has been stated over and over again in their Campaign Offices for months. But JaCon (as you call him) desperately seeks to create divisions in G7 (understandably) by painting them as disunited - so that Uhuruto running separately is given connotations of a disunited greedy front.
A win for Raila at this tiime hinges on his playing the GEMA against the rest of Kenya, which is his favourite strategy that removed him from the Luo-Nyanza Casket into a National Constituency in 2007. However, It is doubtful that Raila's would be so utterly reckless this time to resuscitate the insidious 41-against-1 plan (in first and second round) simply because (a)
such would reconfirm the accusations and suspicions of his direct involvement (and Miguna and Gachoka are making credible accusations of his involvement) in PEV2008 - ICC will be here watching and listening; and (b)
he would require some tribal KYM (Ruto was his primary KYM) to run this tribal mathematics, and it is unlikely anyone would buy into this scheme after hearing Raila pronouncing loudly that Kila-mtu-aubebe-msalaba-wake after PEV2008. Mashenani pia wameeruvuka sana joo!. (c)
Raila will be very busy himself fending off the ICC and other interested international busy-bodies of the damaging allegations of his direct involvement in plannnig and executing the PEV2008 - he will not get involved even directly in any of this tribe-against-that-tribe rubbish he coined in 2005-07. (d)
, Raila and Mungiki are now in bed, publically, and hence he almost exclusively now holds the instruments in Gava and out of Gava for visiting election violence on Kenyans, this time around -if Mungiki torches houses in Molo, Raila will be hardpressed to distance himself from this action in the eyes of Kenyans and international watches.
I cannot see how Raila generates the numbers to win a first round, and I cannot imagine either how Raila wins a second round without the devilish 41-against-1 strategy - which I have discounted to be entirely improbable this time around.
Haya, lete matusi, kama kawaida!!