Kenya will be broke within 2-3 years

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Kichwa Mbaya
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Re: Kenya will be broke within 2-3 years

Unread post by Kichwa Mbaya » Fri Aug 02, 2013 4:26 am

RV' Pundito, totally agree. We have a new constitution and we have to live by it. This thing is doable and their is no going back. Those who want to go back to the old days of "central government" should stop using scare tactics. County governments are gearing up to work. Met some of them and I am convinced they are up to the job. Their is a lot of pride in this devolution thing. Without the counties, the tension of political division in Kenya would be palpable. Right now the energy is channeled to building counties while we wait for uhuruto to collapse.

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Blitz
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Re: Kenya will be broke within 2-3 years

Unread post by Blitz » Fri Aug 02, 2013 5:56 am

RV Heavy hitter! wrote:I agree with you about the impending super brokenness but I think Uhuruto are aware that is why they are taking a second look at devolution when majority of unintelligent bozos are screaming "DEVOLUTION" . You don't have to be a quantum physicist to know that western constitution we got gave birth to one of the biggest government in the solar system. What Uhuruto needs to do is either initiate drastic cuts and severe reforms or let things go red and the great citizens of Kenya will rise up . Referendum to do something big in the western constitution is inevitable in the next 2 years
Our constitution is a crude copy-paste of a combination of the old Westminster system and the American system, the sort of low-brow work we came to expect of the previous nusu-mkate government. It would be interesting if all this scrambling of central authority was pre-planned by some and meant to bring down the nation in the future. Devolution in its extreme form, could turn into session demands. Think of how America had a hard time keeping the union intact, ending up with a the civil war to deal with. Our current system suits large federated nations like U.S. Democratic central governance is the system most regular sized nations like ours run effectively on (Think of France and other numerous examples).

Counties are meant to be represented by County reps, not Governors! How can you equate a mere county to a whole State! Even in the colonial era a single governor ruled over the whole country. Then there is the Senators to account for and they will need a Senate building soon, one as prestigious as Parliament building & Don't forget the Women Reps. Its like employing a whole rooster of briefcase executives to govern a kiosk :!:

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Blitz
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Re: Kenya will be broke within 2-3 years

Unread post by Blitz » Fri Aug 02, 2013 6:03 am

Kichwa Mbaya wrote: while we wait for uhuruto to collapse.
Hahahahaha! The waiting will be inherited by your future descendants. Power will continue to be elusive for your ilk for a generation or four to come. Time for someone to work on their patience :lol: :lol: :lol:

a4architect
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Re: Kenya will be broke within 2-3 years

Unread post by a4architect » Fri Aug 02, 2013 6:13 am

Generally, an increase of all these new employees i.e governors, senators, county reps etc should enable division of labour. This in turn should enable/increase productivity.
What is needed is for Kenyan legislators to craft laws requiring each county to increase productivity.

Denmark has a GDP of usd 300b, 10 times large than kenya yet they have near zero natural resources. They utilize their own intellect eg Maesk Sealine, etc

http://www.investindk.com/Clusters/Mari ... y/Shipping
Denmark's main exports are: industrial production/manufactured goods 73.3% (of which machinery and instruments were 21.4%, and fuels, chemicals, etc. 26%); agricultural products and others for consumption 18.7% (in 2009 meat and meat products were 5.5% of total export; fish and fish products 2.9%).[15] Denmark is a net exporter of food and energy and has for a number of years had a balance of payments surplus while battling an equivalent of approximately 39% of GNP foreign debt or more than 300 billion DKK.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Denmark

Its up to Kenyans to push the MPs to craft laws that criminalize lazyness/non productiveness eg ensuring all counties produce a given % of GDP failure to which actions are taken .

RV Pundit
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Re: Kenya will be broke within 2-3 years

Unread post by RV Pundit » Fri Aug 02, 2013 7:15 am

I disagree with those who think we have too much units of devolution. In fact in my estimate we still need 5 more. Devolution is needed in places like kenya because of ethnicity. Democracy and unitary state will just accentuate division. So you reach a compromise by allowing ethnicity and nationhood by this system. Kenya didn't go for federalism....coz that would allow counties to pretty much do anything..including levy taxes..employ cops..name it.

I think we have a good system that will work. Let us make it work. It our system.
The only hope for kenya is devolution

Kichwa Mbaya
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Re: Kenya will be broke within 2-3 years

Unread post by Kichwa Mbaya » Fri Aug 02, 2013 7:43 am

RV Pundito, I am agreeing with you too much today and it is not good for my reputation but we need more devolution and not less. Devolution will unleash the kind of energy that Africa needs to inspire growth. The "central government" was the impediment to growth and the reason why we cannot stop corruption. Somebody smart ones said " if you cannot solve a problem, expand it and then solve it". The national government budget is too huge and complicated for people to understand and therefore a lot of money can be lost through corruption without the people able to follow. The county budget will be closely followed by the people because they know exactly how much money the county has and how much is being spent. This will not eliminate corruption but it will reduce it to manageable levels and easy to prosecute those who engage in it. Now if you devolve even further into cities, towns, and villages, the budget will even be more transparent and impossible to steal. There is a lot of pride in the counties and it will divert attention from tribalism. When you have 10 counties, tribalism will be more concentrated but 47 counties will dilute tribalism. Then you need to divide the counties into towns, cities and villages this way the energy is localized instead of the highly centralized political obssession in Kenya with the national government. In the US, some people just read the local paper of what is going on in their counties or towns or cities or boroughs or villages and do not even know who their governor is let alone POTUS. People think that Americans are naive because they do not know who the VP is unlike Kenyans where everybody knows the Deputy president. Infact this is the success of devolution.

RV Pundit
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Re: Kenya will be broke within 2-3 years

Unread post by RV Pundit » Fri Aug 02, 2013 7:53 am

Kichwa we can always almost agree if WE stick to 1) common sense 2) logic 3) facts 4) sound arguments 5) empirical evidence;I'm a sucker for that kind of reasoning; if you come here and argue like you do that because of raila bla de bla tribalism has ended in kenya and we are one happy kenya 2.0; i'm going to disagree. The 47 counties are a result of some survey done in 1962....and kenya boundaries were drawn strictly around current 42 tribes...5 more were added later...Kenyans are deeply tribal...devolution...is a way of taming this beast...a way of taming a winner takes all...i prefer things are done orderly...as we move from central gov...counties need to build capacity...central gov have to let go of 17 functions.they have no option..coz in 2015..those functions will be devolved.

Kenya is indeed to complex to be governed in Nairobi. If it was a one tribe; 1 language; country we could do just fine with Nairobi.
Kichwa Mbaya wrote:RV Pundito, I am agreeing with you too much today and it is not good for my reputation but we need more devolution and not less. Devolution will unleash the kind of energy that Africa needs to inspire. The "central government" was the impediment to growth and the reason why we cannot stop corruption. Somebody smart ones said " if you cannot solve a problem, expand it and then solve it". The national government budget is too huge and complicated for people to understand and therefore a lot of money can be lost through corruption without the people able to follow. The county budget will be closely followed by the people because they know exactly how much money the county has and how much is being spent. This will not eliminate corruption but it will reduce it to manageable levels and easy to prosecute those who engage in it. There is a lot of pride in the counties and it will divert attention from tribalism. When you have 10 counties, tribalism will be more concentrated but 47 counties will dilute tribalism. Then you need to divide the counties into towns, cities and villages this way the energy is localized instead of the highly centralized political obssession in Kenya. In the US, some people just read the local paper of what is going on in their counties and do not even know who their governor is let alone POTUS. People think that Americans are naive because they do not know who the VP is unlike Kenyans where everybody knows the Deputy president. Infact this is the success of devolution.
The only hope for kenya is devolution

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Re: Kenya will be broke within 2-3 years

Unread post by Sixty Four » Fri Aug 02, 2013 7:55 am

I did discuss this issue with one of the deputy governors and he had a very interesting take.
I suggested to him that the extra staff they need to have the counties functioning may be on average in the region of 500 for each county. The numbers will need to be paid. He countered by informing me that every county will do a 'headcount and audit' of the current staff and they are sure to net on average 200 workers in each county who are in the payroll but are dead or are ghosts. Especially in the Councils. I have observed what is going and I think this is not too far fetched.

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Re: Kenya will be broke within 2-3 years

Unread post by RV Pundit » Fri Aug 02, 2013 7:59 am

Good observation.But for a county like EMG or Bomet....i doubt their previous council had that many workers...Those counties should avoid that village admin and council of elders nonsense...nobody need a village admin and council of elders..that money can be used to gravel village roads.
Sixty Four wrote:I did discuss this issue with one of the deputy governors and he had a very interesting take.
I suggested to him that the extra staff they need to have the counties functioning may be on average in the region of 500 for each county. The numbers will need to be paid. He countered by informing me that every county will do a 'headcount and audi t' of the current staff and they are sure to net on average 200 workers in each county who are in the payroll but are dead or are ghosts. Especially in the Councils. I have observed what is going and I think this is not too far fetched.
The only hope for kenya is devolution

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Doctor Masinde
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Re: Kenya will be broke within 2-3 years

Unread post by Doctor Masinde » Fri Aug 02, 2013 8:02 am

RV Pundit wrote:Apart from top grade; majority of kenya gov employees earn something like 300-400USD on average; now show me who in the US earn that in a month. Based on minimum us pay of 10dollars...you can say kenya gov employee it's employee for 30hrs per month on 10 dollars a hr....

You cannot compare apples with orange.

Continue dreaming that one day you'll come back and get a hse for 30KUSD.

It never gonna happen.
Doctor Masinde wrote: They were copying American system. America is not a tiny country like Kenya.. Almost ALL states in America are bigger than Kenya by GDP.. (Kenya is only bigger than Vermont and North Dakota by GDP). So the States in America should be viewed as real countries in economic terms. Of course politically they are part of the USA.

The GDP of California is almost $2 TRILLION (bigger than Russia, Spain-- etc). Compare that to Kenyan GDP of $34 Billion. American States generate serious income and therefore serious tax revenue for the federal system of government to function. Kenyan Counties don't have the luxury to generate their own income/tax revenue. So what is the point of economic devolution in a country where most counties cannot sustain themselves economically? Especially if the devolution increases recurring expenditures at county level?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_by_GDP

Respectfully,
I didn't compare an Orange to Apple. It is you Kenyans in Kenya who plagiarized the US Constitution and made it your own without first understanding how America is built-- what makes America work?. Federalism cannot work in a poor third world economy.. you need the Central Govt to balance development objectives because there are counties in Kenya that will never produce their own economic activities.

Also, Kenya is an ethnicized society-- there is no mobility between tribes. In the US, people move from State to State without discrimination-- a Californian cannot discriminate against a New Yorker if the New Yorker moves to California.. that means that skills and knowledge are continuously being exchanged and the American society benefits from this. In Kenya, most people will live and die in their villages/counties.. this ain't good for development especially in devolved system of government.

Respectfully,
Dr. Fred Shamalla Masinde, MB; ChB, DDS, Philosophiae Doctor.
Brooklyn, NY

doctormasinde@yahoo.com
Rombo to en mana rombo ma kata miye telo to podi en mana rombo!

RV Pundit
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Re: Kenya will be broke within 2-3 years

Unread post by RV Pundit » Fri Aug 02, 2013 8:08 am

1) We do not have Federalism in Kenya. We have devolution with really tame Counties. You cannot compare a US state with your county of Siaya. You can compare it with your local county in USA.

2) I think you're wrong on Mobility. Majority of people world wide are born,live and die in their birth areas. This is true in kenya and even more truer in USA where opportunities are spread. Why would a Texas kid with facilities nearly comparable move to NY? People moving around in Kenya or US are either those from poor countries like Somali moving to Nairobi or a kenyan moving to USA or poor counties like a Siaya moving to Kericho county to look for manual work or well the very few who just have to move n move.


Doctor Masinde wrote: I didn't compare an Orange to Apple. It is you Kenyans in Kenya who plagiarized the US Constitution and made it your own without first understanding how America is built-- what makes America work?. Federalism cannot work in a poor third world economy.. you need the Central Govt to balance development objectives because there are counties in Kenya that will never produce their own economic activities.

Also, Kenya is an ethnicized society-- there is no mobility between tribes. In the US, people move from State to State without discrimination-- a Californian cannot discriminate against a New Yorker if the New Yorker moves to California.. that means that skills and knowledge are continuously being exchanged and the American society benefits from this. In Kenya, most people will live and die in their villages/counties.. this ain't good for development especially in devolved system of government.

Respectfully,
The only hope for kenya is devolution

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Re: Kenya will be broke within 2-3 years

Unread post by Sixty Four » Fri Aug 02, 2013 8:15 am

They are already busy advertising and rewarding their cronies.

The real challenge in the counties is the 'other centre of power' created by the MP's and their CDF. This is a bad move in every sense. Creating jealousies and general bad blood at the local level.
RV Pundit wrote:Good observation.But for a county like EMG or Bomet....i doubt their previous council had that many workers...Those counties should avoid that village admin and council of elders nonsense...nobody need a village admin and council of elders..that money can be used to gravel village roads.
Sixty Four wrote:I did discuss this issue with one of the deputy governors and he had a very interesting take.
I suggested to him that the extra staff they need to have the counties functioning may be on average in the region of 500 for each county. The numbers will need to be paid. He countered by informing me that every county will do a 'headcount and audi t' of the current staff and they are sure to net on average 200 workers in each county who are in the payroll but are dead or are ghosts. Especially in the Councils. I have observed what is going and I think this is not too far fetched.

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Doctor Masinde
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Re: Kenya will be broke within 2-3 years

Unread post by Doctor Masinde » Fri Aug 02, 2013 8:22 am

RV Pundit wrote: 2) I think you're wrong on Mobility. Majority of people world wide are born,live and die in their birth areas. This is true in kenya and even more truer in USA where opportunities are spread. Why would a Texas kid with facilities nearly comparable move to NY? People moving around in Kenya or US are either those from poor countries like Somali moving to Nairobi or a kenyan moving to USA or poor counties like a Siaya moving to Kericho county to look for manual work or well the very few who just have to move n move.
To clarify on mobility I am talking about people who are productive i.e highly skilled labor moving from county to county.

I don't see a Luo engineer voluntarily going to work in Murang'a and I don't see a Murang'a/Kikuyu corporate executive voluntarily going to work in Siaya. That's what I meant by mobility that has serious economic benefit to a country like the US. And that's why the Kenyan Central Govt in theory was important in "forcefully" distributing economic and human resources to the so-called marginalized areas...(The Central Govt didn't fail Kenyans, LEADERS failed Kenyans with their corruption and tribalism. The devolved system of government has just magnified our leadership problem.. you created centers of corruption that are protected by tribes..)

In Kenya, you have 5 main private employment bases: Nakuru, Nairobi, Kisumu, Eldoret and Mombasa. The rest of the towns people work there mostly as civil servants. In the devolved system of governance, some of these bases (counties) now became ethnicized.. they become part of "our county" mentality: Uashin Gishu/Eldoret for Kalenjins, Kisumu for Luos, Kakamega for Luhyas, etc. Their governors are "our tribesmen". These counties have been tribalized in the truest form of tribalism...

Get ready for a rough ride ahead.

Respectfully,
Dr. Fred Shamalla Masinde, MB; ChB, DDS, Philosophiae Doctor.
Brooklyn, NY

doctormasinde@yahoo.com
Rombo to en mana rombo ma kata miye telo to podi en mana rombo!

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Re: Kenya will be broke within 2-3 years

Unread post by RV Pundit » Fri Aug 02, 2013 8:27 am

What makes you think there is no Muranga engineer? or you just need mobility for it's sake.Nobody will refuse a Luo doctor in Bomet if we cannot find our own..they are providing a service.

Private sector will employ a Luo engineer to work anywhere. In Gov Jobs...where locals will be hired...but in 10-12M jobs...only 0.7M are gov Jobs.

Yes counties will have mostly local folks working for them...it only a problem for current civil services whose functions are devolved...say Baringo has many civil servants..but soon enough majority will find themselves jobless.....but they can always work for private sector or the national gov.

If i opened a business in Siaya..i can hire whoever i want.
Doctor Masinde wrote: To clarify on mobility I am talking about people who are productive i.e highly skilled labor moving from county to county.

I don't see a Luo engineer voluntarily going to work in Murang'a and I don't see a Murang's/Kikuyu corporate executive voluntarily going to work in Siaya. That's what I meant by mobility that has serious economic benefit to a country like the US. And that's why the Central Govt in theory was important in "forcefully" distributing resources to the so-called marginalized areas...(The Central Govt didn't fail Kenyans, LEADERS failed Kenyans with their corruption and tribalism. The devolved system of government has just magnified our leadership problem.. you created centers of corruption that are protected by tribes..)

In Kenya, you have 5 main private employment bases: Nakuru, Nairobi, Kisumu, Eldoret and Mombasa. The rest of the towns people work there mostly as civil servants. In the devolved system of governance, some of these bases (counties) now became ethnicized.. they become part of "our county" mentality: Uashin Gishu/Eldoret for Kalenjins, Kisumu for Luos, Kakamega for Luhyas, etc. Their governors are "our tribesmen". These counties have been tribalized in the truest form of tribalism...

Get ready for a rough ride ahead.

Respectfully,
The only hope for kenya is devolution

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Re: Kenya will be broke within 2-3 years

Unread post by newgeneration » Fri Aug 02, 2013 8:51 am

The issue in my view is one centre of accountability, enforcement, guarantor, Policy creation, System... You can never have these in conflict. To suggest that counties can/should build this capacity and then harmonize across counties is one helluva task. Kenya would have to step out of the current developments from the rest of the world to 1st harmonize or no genuine partners can afford to be part of a chaotic assembly of confusion... The National government has to have TOTAL oversight... if this can be achieved while still devolving some functions, then so be it. What we hear from some governors and some lawmakers is 1st they have no clue on their duties and responsibilities, 2nd they want to create 47 Kenya's, a recipe for disaster. The disaster would be a welcomed event for anyone seeking to negotiate directly with people incapable of enforcement, defence or determining the worth of any resource.

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