I read Boinet has categorized E/M as potential outburst of violence coz of the protests of voters at Chepkorio. Tolgos the Marakwet and Changwony the Keiyo don't share a common boundary of violence. The only spot is Iten town of Keiyo which has say 30% Marakwets. Chepiemit the Marakwet town has zero Keiyos there. Zero violence other than in ballot box which I heard Tolgos will miserably lose.
I counted the IEBC voters of E/M wards as posted in its website. Like like Kapchemutwa ward will decide the fate of Tolgos. Even when I gave that ward to Merkwete (which is not), I found a difference of 5k registered voter advantage of Tolgos.
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