BaiteMurume 2017 Results: Minimum 53 % For Jubilee and Maximum 46% For NASA IF, IF BABU lets us get to 8th August safe

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BaiteMurume
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BaiteMurume 2017 Results: Minimum 53 % For Jubilee and Maximum 46% For NASA IF, IF BABU lets us get to 8th August safe

Unread post by BaiteMurume » Sat Aug 05, 2017 12:57 pm

BaiteMurume Projection: Just like 2013, Jubilee again takes it round one much easily despite the hard work Josh Mwitu has done bullying Jubilee.

a minimum of 53% up from our projection of 52% for Jubilee!
similary, a maximum of 46% up from the projected 42% for Cord in 2013.
this remains a generous mathematical barrier for Nasa!

ONLY NUMBERS ADD UP AND OUR NUMBERS DON'T LIE!
We explain why...

Ours remains always a combination of professionalization of mathematics (numbers) and modeling with dry emotions!

Let us first observe that 2013 election was not stolen, that there are now 2 hourses, the tyranny of numbers is alive and that the closest hypothetical well wishers tie would mean that all get 50%. Is this possible? What has changed!? Very little:

a. we added more voters - mostly young voters fairly propotionately on both camps. These young voters can not associate with Raila based on his no-agenda agenda. They will lean towards the modern hype of IT, SGR, Stima, Campus, and opportunity. Forgive Kamwana - he is a very cool prezo. He knew they will matter so he pimped his side.This lot will not reward Joshua-" yule mzae". All they know about him is not so tasty. Remember they were vulnerable and terrified by him in 2007. So here Kamwana gets a 1 point. Joshua goes home to dry.

Results: 53 to 42 points (the rest are below)

b. We changed the race to a 2 hourse race - and Raila benefits with a full 3 out of 4 points since Mulembe nation has been boxed well and alternative forces failed to gain trust. Wamapua failed! Haidhulu!
Results: 54 to 45 points

c. ICC went away - here Kamwana suffers since the animal that kept people awake was killed and eaten - what Kaloi said today will cost but not so dearly. He is lucky to have said that where there was no right of reply.

These same Kenyans are secretly saddist and they are willing to stand infront of the last bullet that Josh mwitu throws though not as resolved as 2013. Here Kamwana looses a whole point.

Results: 53 to 45 points

d. Babu now Joshua has done a great job using his last bullet and mobilizing his kingdomites with very saucy propaganda and rants. Well done babu pima! This has given him a chance that his block will have a slightly higher turn out than 2013 -so we say that NASA camp will turn out more deliberately. This is where we give Muguruks another point.

Results: 53 to 46 points

Now after this its hard to shake this anyway. Forget about maendeleo, SGR, Stima, Mahospitali, Corrupson, Shule ya bure, Unga, Kupanda kwa maisha and ALL election promises. The two camps are animals of the mud, they are just both more muddy.

Kenyans are not there yet - its an election where Fake Josh is the object of symphathy or aggetion in measure. The dice has been cast and its a clean shave-bila maji for Kitendawili.

We don't leave it here. We do not see how we will vote on 8th August 2017. Josh Mwitu knows it is loaded and its pointing in his head proper and if he goes for the election like this Kenyans will pull the trigger. We expect him to fight nasty and prevent the fair announcement of the results.

We advice all state machinery to observe more keenly what he is up to now that he is not on the campaign trail. UhuRuto must now retreat to steer this country to elections where the utmost reward lies very aware of the ready deadlock and booby traps set by Orembo and his crafty can of worms!

Good luck Kenya and we say it again:

"Kenyans are very predictable" and they fit well in good prediction models.

2013 prediction is the same basis for 2017.

For details of our mindset see also:
ref.: viewtopic.php?f=2&t=24041&tmx=1501959489
Things becoming elephant!
These are very sweet times for Jubilantes - Chai ni Kismayu!
Image

Chanari
Level: Aristocrats
Posts: 391
Joined: Tue Feb 19, 2013 9:06 am

Re: BaiteMurume 2017 Results: Minimum 53 % For Jubilee and Maximum 46% For NASA IF, IF BABU lets us get to 8th August sa

Unread post by Chanari » Sun Aug 06, 2017 10:15 am

https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article ... on-tuesday

Figures don’t lie, President Uhuru headed for first round victory on Tuesday

Uhuru Kenyatta looks set for a projected 54 per cent first round win to retain his seat as President of the Republic of Kenya come the August 8th presidential election. This will represent a significant improvement on his 2013 performance when he garnered 50.51 per cent of the vote against 43.7 per cent for his closest challenger Raila Odinga of the then CORD who came a close second. Whereas Kenyatta has run a successful campaign largely anchored upon a solid and transformative first-term in office during which time Kenya has seen significant and unprecedented investments in infrastructure with key milestones in the transport, energy and communications sector and social investments in education, social security, health and youth affairs; it is Kenya’s unique tribal engineering that looks set to deliver the decisive vote on August 8 in a country where voting is still largely tribal rather than issue-based. All indicators are that tribal voting patterns and loyalties will be the most significant determinant of how regions will vote on August 8. Kenyans will not witness any loyalty shifts from the ethnic centre among the major tribes that traditionally determine the occupancy of State House. Central Kenya, Nyanza, Rift Valley, Eastern, Western, Coast and North Eastern have not had any compelling reason to shift from their 2013 voting patterns. Our elections are still largely a tribal census whose participants boil down to who mobilised their ethnic kinsmen more successfully to register and subsequently turn out en-masse to vote since voter registration was not conducted based on issue groups but ethnic groups. In 1992, President Moi famously predicted this tribal voting pattern at the onset of agitation for multi-partism in Kenya. ALSO READ: Opinion: Is it right for former Tanzania PM to endorse President Uhuru? “I have refused to allow multiparty democracy in Kenya because it will divide Kenyans along tribal lines. Vyama vingi vitaleta ukabila Kenya. Siku moja mtakubali haya maneno yangu.” (Many parties will entrench ethnic-based politics in Kenya. One day you will see that I was right),” he said. Moi has now been fully vindicated. There may be slight but not significant variations from 2013. Voter turnout may vary slightly due to emotions raised during the campaigns pegged on issues such as ‘the last bullet’ and whether Kenyatta would become the first one-term President or even William Ruto’s 2022 ambitions. But nothing significant has happened between March 4, 2013 to date to significantly change the loyalty patterns to the extent of influencing the outcomes of the election from 2013. Indeed, it is the internal dynamics of voters that have since died and been excluded from the register, those turning eighteen years and registering as new voters, previously legible but unregistered voters and voter-turnout within the traditional strongholds that will slightly vary outcomes for each of the leading coalitions and their respective presidential candidates. Based on Kenya’s current voter listing when translated into tribal voting blocs, the Jubilee coalition has an overwhelming advantage against the NASA coalition. If Jubilee’s strongholds comprising the Kikuyu (4.6 million), Kalenjin (2.4 million), Meru (970,000), Embu (233,000) Mbeere (107,000) and Tharaka (91,000) were to give Jubilee 90 per cent of their vote; this would build a solid starting base of approximately 7.6 million votes. Based on 2013 patterns; attainable and realistic hypothesis; If the ruling coalition was to further garner 60 per cent from Northern Kenya (370,000), 50 per cent from Kuria (45,000), 50 per cent from the Samburu and Borana (92,000), 30 per cent from western Kenya (800,000), 20 per cent from Kamba’s (423,000), 50 per cent from Maasai (182,000), 40 per cent from Turkanas (99,000), 40 per cent from Kisiis (470,000), 30 per cent from Taitas (172,000) and another 50 per cent from the other smaller communities comprising Kenyan Asians, Europeans, Ndorobos, Njemps and others estimated at approximately 122,000, their vote tally would total approximately 10.6 million Votes representing approximately 54 per cent of the vote. ALSO READ: Opinion: Is it right for former Tanzania PM to endorse President Uhuru? This is significant because based on approximately 19.6 million registered voters, this would surpass the 50 per cent+1 threshold of approximately 9.8 million votes thus guaranteeing Jubilee an outright round-one win. Enhance service delivery Conversely, if NASA’s traditional strongholds of Luo (2.2 million) would accord them 95 per cent of the vote totaling approximately 2 million votes, Luhya (2.7 million) accords NASA 70 per cent totaling 1.9 million, Abasuba 67,000 (95 per cent), Kamba 1.7 million (80 per cent), Mijikenda 586,000 (70 per cent) this would provide the NASA presidential candidate with a starting base of approximately 6.2 million votes. If additionally, NASA garnered Kisii 700,000 (60 per cent), Turkana 148,000 (60 per cent), Taita 120,000 (60 per cent), Maasai 182,000 (50 per cent), Kuria 45,000 (50 per cent), Samburu and Borana 92,000 (50 per cent), Northern Kenya 245,000 (40 per cent), average 8 per cent from Central totaling 356,000, average 20 per cent from Kalenjin totaling 463,000 and approximately 122,000 from other smaller tribes, NASA would garner approximately 1.8 million additional votes. This would bring their tally to approximately 8.8 million votes representing approximately 46 per cent of the vote. While these figures represent total registered voters, it is noteworthy that Jubilee coalition had superior voter turnout in the 2013 elections at 93 per cent against the opposition’s 82 per cent; a trend likely to be upheld and this would therefore further increase their proportionate percentage tally. Statistics don’t lie. Emotions aside, these are the empirical facts of the case. So, all factors constant Kenyatta is winning the August 8 presidential election in the first round. He can as well now go ahead and prepare his acceptance speech and think of how to re-engineer his Cabinet to enhance service delivery to Kenyans. Dr Misigo is a Senior Lecturer at the University of Nairobi, History Department
Read more at: https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article ... on-tuesday

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BaiteMurume
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Re: BaiteMurume 2017 Results: Minimum 53 % For Jubilee and Maximum 46% For NASA IF, IF BABU lets us get to 8th August sa

Unread post by BaiteMurume » Sun Aug 06, 2017 12:21 pm

Chanari wrote:
Sun Aug 06, 2017 10:15 am
https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article ... on-tuesday

Figures don’t lie, President Uhuru headed for first round victory on Tuesday

Uhuru Kenyatta looks set for a projected 54 per cent first round win to retain his seat as President of the Republic of Kenya come the August 8th presidential election. This will represent a significant improvement on his 2013 performance when he garnered 50.51 per cent of the vote against 43.7 per cent for his closest challenger Raila Odinga of the then CORD who came a close second. Whereas Kenyatta has run a successful campaign largely anchored upon a solid and transformative first-term in office during which time Kenya has seen significant and unprecedented investments in infrastructure with key milestones in the transport, energy and communications sector and social investments in education, social security, health and youth affairs; it is Kenya’s unique tribal engineering that looks set to deliver the decisive vote on August 8 in a country where voting is still largely tribal rather than issue-based.

...
Alas, this is our mind match! What matters is we go out and vote I still cant imagine that Babu will let this last bullet go like that. I think that there is a can of worms he might pop.
Things becoming elephant!
These are very sweet times for Jubilantes - Chai ni Kismayu!
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User avatar
BaiteMurume
Level: Nobles
Posts: 749
Joined: Sun Mar 03, 2013 8:05 am

Re: BaiteMurume 2017 Results: Minimum 53 % For Jubilee and Maximum 46% For NASA IF, IF BABU lets us get to 8th August sa

Unread post by BaiteMurume » Sat Aug 12, 2017 9:24 am

Screenshot_20170812-171614.jpg
Elog
Screenshot_20170812-171614.jpg (239.42 KiB) Viewed 108 times
See: this is what numbers are - precisely very stubborn 😂

We could have saved a lot of money had you believed us 😂😂😂🤣

BaiteMurume wrote:
Sat Aug 05, 2017 12:57 pm
BaiteMurume Projection: Just like 2013, Jubilee again takes it round one much easily despite the hard work Josh Mwitu has done bullying Jubilee.

a minimum of 53% up from our projection of 52% for Jubilee!
similary, a maximum of 46% up from the projected 42% for Cord in 2013.
this remains a generous mathematical barrier for Nasa!

ONLY NUMBERS ADD UP AND OUR NUMBERS DON'T LIE!
We explain why...

Ours remains always a combination of professionalization of mathematics (numbers) and modeling with dry emotions!

Let us first observe that 2013 election was not stolen, that there are now 2 hourses, the tyranny of numbers is alive and that the closest hypothetical well wishers tie would mean that all get 50%. Is this possible? What has changed!? Very little:

a. we added more voters - mostly young voters fairly propotionately on both camps. These young voters can not associate with Raila based on his no-agenda agenda. They will lean towards the modern hype of IT, SGR, Stima, Campus, and opportunity. Forgive Kamwana - he is a very cool prezo. He knew they will matter so he pimped his side.This lot will not reward Joshua-" yule mzae". All they know about him is not so tasty. Remember they were vulnerable and terrified by him in 2007. So here Kamwana gets a 1 point. Joshua goes home to dry.

Results: 53 to 42 points (the rest are below)

b. We changed the race to a 2 hourse race - and Raila benefits with a full 3 out of 4 points since Mulembe nation has been boxed well and alternative forces failed to gain trust. Wamapua failed! Haidhulu!
Results: 54 to 45 points

c. ICC went away - here Kamwana suffers since the animal that kept people awake was killed and eaten - what Kaloi said today will cost but not so dearly. He is lucky to have said that where there was no right of reply.

These same Kenyans are secretly saddist and they are willing to stand infront of the last bullet that Josh mwitu throws though not as resolved as 2013. Here Kamwana looses a whole point.

Results: 53 to 45 points

d. Babu now Joshua has done a great job using his last bullet and mobilizing his kingdomites with very saucy propaganda and rants. Well done babu pima! This has given him a chance that his block will have a slightly higher turn out than 2013 -so we say that NASA camp will turn out more deliberately. This is where we give Muguruks another point.

Results: 53 to 46 points

Now after this its hard to shake this anyway. Forget about maendeleo, SGR, Stima, Mahospitali, Corrupson, Shule ya bure, Unga, Kupanda kwa maisha and ALL election promises. The two camps are animals of the mud, they are just both more muddy.

Kenyans are not there yet - its an election where Fake Josh is the object of symphathy or aggetion in measure. The dice has been cast and its a clean shave-bila maji for Kitendawili.

We don't leave it here. We do not see how we will vote on 8th August 2017. Josh Mwitu knows it is loaded and its pointing in his head proper and if he goes for the election like this Kenyans will pull the trigger. We expect him to fight nasty and prevent the fair announcement of the results.

We advice all state machinery to observe more keenly what he is up to now that he is not on the campaign trail. UhuRuto must now retreat to steer this country to elections where the utmost reward lies very aware of the ready deadlock and booby traps set by Orembo and his crafty can of worms!

Good luck Kenya and we say it again:

"Kenyans are very predictable" and they fit well in good prediction models.

2013 prediction is the same basis for 2017.

For details of our mindset see also:
ref.: viewtopic.php?f=2&t=24041&tmx=1501959489

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