Does Baba Raila Have a Legit Point for Reforms?

Politics
Garlic
Level: Imperial Majesty
Posts: 2425
Joined: Sat Feb 01, 2014 5:08 am

Does Baba Raila Have a Legit Point for Reforms?

Unread post by Garlic » Wed Nov 22, 2017 5:57 am

With the end of Supreme Court battle the electioneering period has come to an end. But since it has been an extraordinary period where Presidential Election was first annulled then held again. And one of the major coalition NASA boycotted the fresh election.

Now its a justifiable question to seriously enquire whether there were legitimate concerns by those who opposed the fresh election and all the hullabaloo they raised.

I think one of the argument which needs attention of policymakers and political analysts and others is the question/FEAR of being DOMINATED by Kale/Gema political alliance. It is obvious that there is NO WAY to beat that alliance at the polls. Gema on their own makes close to 38% of the VOTING population. This is based on registered voters AND TURNOUT during election..
Add Kalenjins who are one of the Big Three tribe in Kenya. And with Kalenjin you have a GATEWAY to pastoralist communities from Maasai, Samburu, Somalis, Turkanas and others..

That means it the ONLY political alliance assured of 50+1 in the FIRST round as per the 2010 Constitution. Therefore Kale/Gema have, and will, dominate the Kenyan PRESIDENCY for the foreseeable future. And this is what is at the HEART of "others" feeling of being dominated. Then somebody like Raila has weaponized ethnicity and thereby bringing about almost ethnic based clashes.

Raila's methods of agitation aside, there seem to me that such a system of government/election outcome will forever be a source of friction in Kenya. Maybe in future we may get a more fearsome and radical nut than Raila is and who will take such issues to higher level of confrontation.

The question is: IS it OKAY in Kenya that other tribes/communities resign themselves to the fact that the Presidency of Kenya will always be shared between Kalenjins and Gema?

My two cent rumbling.

Forwardoh
Level: Council of the gods
Posts: 3860
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2015 7:27 am

Re: Does Baba Raila Have a Legit Point for Reforms?

Unread post by Forwardoh » Wed Nov 22, 2017 7:46 am

If your point is 'legit' if you 'dominate so much', why are you soliciting for endorsement congratulatory messages from world capitals. Are you not embarrassing yourself begging wazungu?
Rigging mpaka congratulatory messages? Huna haya.

User avatar
Energizer
Level: Council of the gods
Posts: 10433
Joined: Tue Feb 22, 2011 11:21 am

Re: Does Baba Raila Have a Legit Point for Reforms?

Unread post by Energizer » Wed Nov 22, 2017 8:10 am

Good observation. I think there is a good case for creating a second deputy president, a prime minister, and 3 deputy prime ministers. This is the platform on which DP Ruto should base his 2022 campaign, a national unity campaign for national transformation in the lead up to achieving vision 2030. The catch is that all those positions will be given only to Jubilee party life members.

The second deputy president should come from a minority community like Coast Arab/Muslim, so that you have both regional and religious diversity. The prime minister can come from any of the big five - Kikuyu, Kalenjin, Luhya, Luo and Kamba, plus DPMs reserved for one of the big five who do not make second DPM and a woman for the third DPM. Just my thoughts.
Garlic wrote:
Wed Nov 22, 2017 5:57 am
With the end of Supreme Court battle the electioneering period has come to an end. But since it has been an extraordinary period where Presidential Election was first annulled then held again. And one of the major coalition NASA boycotted the fresh election.

Now its a justifiable question to seriously enquire whether there were legitimate concerns by those who opposed the fresh election and all the hullabaloo they raised.

I think one of the argument which needs attention of policymakers and political analysts and others is the question/FEAR of being DOMINATED by Kale/Gema political alliance. It is obvious that there is NO WAY to beat that alliance at the polls. Gema on their own makes close to 38% of the VOTING population. This is based on registered voters AND TURNOUT during election..
Add Kalenjins who are one of the Big Three tribe in Kenya. And with Kalenjin you have a GATEWAY to pastoralist communities from Maasai, Samburu, Somalis, Turkanas and others..

That means it the ONLY political alliance assured of 50+1 in the FIRST round as per the 2010 Constitution. Therefore Kale/Gema have, and will, dominate the Kenyan PRESIDENCY for the foreseeable future. And this is what is at the HEART of "others" feeling of being dominated. Then somebody like Raila has weaponized ethnicity and thereby bringing about almost ethnic based clashes.

Raila's methods of agitation aside, there seem to me that such a system of government/election outcome will forever be a source of friction in Kenya. Maybe in future we may get a more fearsome and radical nut than Raila is and who will take such issues to higher level of confrontation.

The question is: IS it OKAY in Kenya that other tribes/communities resign themselves to the fact that the Presidency of Kenya will always be shared between Kalenjins and Gema?

My two cent rumbling.
We believe in Kusema na Kutenda

Garlic
Level: Imperial Majesty
Posts: 2425
Joined: Sat Feb 01, 2014 5:08 am

Re: Does Baba Raila Have a Legit Point for Reforms?

Unread post by Garlic » Wed Nov 22, 2017 8:27 am

Emotional outburst is what leads to your being defeated each round. Incapable of serious thoughts apart from cliché from angry Baba.
Get it into their thick head, there is no way to beat Kale/Gema at the polls. Raila is just using incitements and ill thought allegations of rigged elections to hide that fact.

Jeez, i hate to think if self declared Ivy League hecklers reason like you, what about the mwananchi wa Nasa?

Forwardoh wrote:
Wed Nov 22, 2017 7:46 am
If your point is 'legit' if you 'dominate so much', why are you soliciting for endorsement congratulatory messages from world capitals. Are you not embarrassing yourself begging wazungu?
Rigging mpaka congratulatory messages? Huna haya.

Forwardoh
Level: Council of the gods
Posts: 3860
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2015 7:27 am

Re: Does Baba Raila Have a Legit Point for Reforms?

Unread post by Forwardoh » Wed Nov 22, 2017 8:51 am

Garlic wrote:
Wed Nov 22, 2017 8:27 am
Emotional outburst is what leads to your being defeated each round. Incapable of serious thoughts apart from cliché from angry Baba.
Get it into their thick head, there is no way to beat Kale/Gema at the polls. Raila is just using incitements and ill thought allegations of rigged elections to hide that fact.

Jeez, i hate to think if self declared Ivy League hecklers reason like you, what about the mwananchi wa Nasa?

Forwardoh wrote:
Wed Nov 22, 2017 7:46 am
If your point is 'legit' if you 'dominate so much', why are you soliciting for endorsement congratulatory messages from world capitals. Are you not embarrassing yourself begging wazungu?
Rigging mpaka congratulatory messages? Huna haya.
Geez, who said I am quoting what you are calling "Raila .... Incitement"?
Emotional ni wewe coz you can't write anything without Rails in it. Nipate already has a thread where your one-cent (pun intended) has been deconstructed.

http://www.nipate.com/viewtopic.php?f=2 ... 1511362504

Garlic
Level: Imperial Majesty
Posts: 2425
Joined: Sat Feb 01, 2014 5:08 am

Re: Does Baba Raila Have a Legit Point for Reforms?

Unread post by Garlic » Wed Nov 22, 2017 1:00 pm

I really don't have a preferred solution. It's an issue for discussion. To some unthinking characters like Forwardoh they think Raila cry is GENUINELY about rigging. It is not. He, Raila, knows so long as Kale/Gema are together there is no way anyone else can win Presidency through the ballot. No way.

All what Nasarites are putting forward is face saving. Forwardoh is just a foot soldier not a thinker. He doesn't realise Ruto is the next 5th President of Kenya. Uhuru is expected to pick a Deputy for him. And the Deputy has to be a Gema so that Gema feels they have a stake. Then after Ruto that picked Deputy will be 6th President and he will pick a Kalenjin for Deputy. Because why spoil a WINNING FORMULA!?
Energizer wrote:
Wed Nov 22, 2017 8:10 am
Good observation. I think there is a good case for creating a second deputy president, a prime minister, and 3 deputy prime ministers. This is the platform on which DP Ruto should base his 2022 campaign, a national unity campaign for national transformation in the lead up to achieving vision 2030. The catch is that all those positions will be given only to Jubilee party life members.

The second deputy president should come from a minority community like Coast Arab/Muslim, so that you have both regional and religious diversity. The prime minister can come from any of the big five - Kikuyu, Kalenjin, Luhya, Luo and Kamba, plus DPMs reserved for one of the big five who do not make second DPM and a woman for the third DPM. Just my thoughts.
Garlic wrote:
Wed Nov 22, 2017 5:57 am
With the end of Supreme Court battle the electioneering period has come to an end. But since it has been an extraordinary period where Presidential Election was first annulled then held again. And one of the major coalition NASA boycotted the fresh election.

Now its a justifiable question to seriously enquire whether there were legitimate concerns by those who opposed the fresh election and all the hullabaloo they raised.

I think one of the argument which needs attention of policymakers and political analysts and others is the question/FEAR of being DOMINATED by Kale/Gema political alliance. It is obvious that there is NO WAY to beat that alliance at the polls. Gema on their own makes close to 38% of the VOTING population. This is based on registered voters AND TURNOUT during election..
Add Kalenjins who are one of the Big Three tribe in Kenya. And with Kalenjin you have a GATEWAY to pastoralist communities from Maasai, Samburu, Somalis, Turkanas and others..

That means it the ONLY political alliance assured of 50+1 in the FIRST round as per the 2010 Constitution. Therefore Kale/Gema have, and will, dominate the Kenyan PRESIDENCY for the foreseeable future. And this is what is at the HEART of "others" feeling of being dominated. Then somebody like Raila has weaponized ethnicity and thereby bringing about almost ethnic based clashes.

Raila's methods of agitation aside, there seem to me that such a system of government/election outcome will forever be a source of friction in Kenya. Maybe in future we may get a more fearsome and radical nut than Raila is and who will take such issues to higher level of confrontation.

The question is: IS it OKAY in Kenya that other tribes/communities resign themselves to the fact that the Presidency of Kenya will always be shared between Kalenjins and Gema?

My two cent rumbling.

Garlic
Level: Imperial Majesty
Posts: 2425
Joined: Sat Feb 01, 2014 5:08 am

Re: Does Baba Raila Have a Legit Point for Reforms?

Unread post by Garlic » Wed Nov 22, 2017 1:03 pm

You are a confirmed simpleton if you think peddling conspiracy about soliciting for congratulations advance your case.

You are a waste of effort. Just go picket and throw stones claiming rigging and electoral reforms. You are incapable of discerning important points from usual political hubris.

Forwardoh wrote:
Wed Nov 22, 2017 8:51 am
Garlic wrote:
Wed Nov 22, 2017 8:27 am
Emotional outburst is what leads to your being defeated each round. Incapable of serious thoughts apart from cliché from angry Baba.
Get it into their thick head, there is no way to beat Kale/Gema at the polls. Raila is just using incitements and ill thought allegations of rigged elections to hide that fact.

Jeez, i hate to think if self declared Ivy League hecklers reason like you, what about the mwananchi wa Nasa?

Forwardoh wrote:
Wed Nov 22, 2017 7:46 am
If your point is 'legit' if you 'dominate so much', why are you soliciting for endorsement congratulatory messages from world capitals. Are you not embarrassing yourself begging wazungu?
Rigging mpaka congratulatory messages? Huna haya.
Geez, who said I am quoting what you are calling "Raila .... Incitement"?
Emotional ni wewe coz you can't write anything without Rails in it. Nipate already has a thread where your one-cent (pun intended) has been deconstructed.

http://www.nipate.com/viewtopic.php?f=2 ... 1511362504

JahKikuyu
Level: Aristocrats
Posts: 185
Joined: Wed Jul 20, 2016 8:33 pm

Re: Does Baba Raila Have a Legit Point for Reforms?

Unread post by JahKikuyu » Wed Nov 22, 2017 3:20 pm

Garlic wrote:
Wed Nov 22, 2017 5:57 am

I think one of the argument which needs attention of policymakers and political analysts and others is the question/FEAR of being DOMINATED by Kale/Gema political alliance. It is obvious that there is NO WAY to beat that alliance at the polls. Gema on their own makes close to 38% of the VOTING population. This is based on registered voters AND TURNOUT during election..
Add Kalenjins who are one of the Big Three tribe in Kenya. And with Kalenjin you have a GATEWAY to pastoralist communities from Maasai, Samburu, Somalis, Turkanas and others..

That means it the ONLY political alliance assured of 50+1 in the FIRST round as per the 2010 Constitution. Therefore Kale/Gema have, and will, dominate the Kenyan PRESIDENCY for the foreseeable future. And this is what is at the HEART of "others" feeling of being dominated.
Raila's methods of agitation aside, there seem to me that such a system of government/election outcome will forever be a source of friction in Kenya.

Maybe in future we may get a more fearsome and radical nut than Raila is and who will take such issues to higher level of confrontation.

The question is: IS it OKAY in Kenya that other tribes/communities resign themselves to the fact that the Presidency of Kenya will always be shared between Kalenjins and Gema?My two cent rumbling.
Garlic:
You raise some very pertinent issues with your post. Raila's apparent perpetual failure in his quest for the presidency arises partly from the reasons outlined above.

In addition to soul searching on the way out of this dilemna, we need to also address the issues that arose from the 2017 elections. It is commonly believed that (based also on the reasons above) Uhuruto could have won in the first round without resorting to the alleged murder of Msando and the subsequent underhand deals that gave Jubilee the constant 54 percent. These issues made 2017 nearly become a repeat of 2007.

Back to your post, the situation you describe (where Kale-kikuyu take the presidency in turns because of numerical superiority) is untenable for national unity. We have to device an electoral system where there appears to be fair representation. One way forward would be rotational presidency. Another way would be the electoral college system.

The calls for seceding that we have heard in 2017 will only get louder in the second term, especially if Uhuruto continue on their path of unchecked nepotism and corruption.

As you say, Raila's brand of mild/moderate confrontation might pale in comparison to some other firebrand that comes in later to represent the voices of the other Kenya that is shut out from leadership.

I seriously hope Uhuru/Ruto and their henchmen read your post. 2017 might be the beginning of the end of Kenya as a unitary state if we don't address this elephant in the room.
JahKikuyu

nowayhaha
Level: Lord Barons
Posts: 1267
Joined: Thu Mar 28, 2013 6:05 am

Re: Does Baba Raila Have a Legit Point for Reforms?

Unread post by nowayhaha » Wed Nov 22, 2017 5:43 pm

Garlic, you raise some valid points; coming from the so called minority tribes , I will tell you one thing the leader who will factor in the majority tribes is the one who will lead Kenyans and there in you have Ruto who is loathed by Raila maniacs, because of one simple thing in his calculations he has seen what really one need to be to rule Kenya.
Its a fact Ruto will be the president in 2022 and will be elcted by voters like none other , its a nightmare for the Orengos etc the truth is democracy calls for majority rules minority have their say and its a tricky balance so its about accepting that the only way you can rule the majority is by winning their hearts ao between Ruto and Raila who do you think has done that.....

sms
Level: Imperial Majesty
Posts: 2079
Joined: Fri Feb 15, 2013 10:57 am

Re: Does Baba Raila Have a Legit Point for Reforms?

Unread post by sms » Wed Nov 22, 2017 8:43 pm

I think Ruto's deputy should come from any other tribe not okuyu. I dont care if the deputy is luo as long as that luo is not and will never be aliaR Ojinga.
aliaR Ojinga.........killing Kenyans since 1982.

Garlic
Level: Imperial Majesty
Posts: 2425
Joined: Sat Feb 01, 2014 5:08 am

Re: Does Baba Raila Have a Legit Point for Reforms?

Unread post by Garlic » Thu Nov 23, 2017 2:48 am

Maybe. But that would be tricky politically. I believe Ruto can win 2022 without Gema support BUT so long as Gema don't join with say Luos and Kambas. Anything is possible.

Also i think there should be a discussion among Gema whether they can forgo being Ruto's running mate and stay out of the Presidency from 2022 to 2032. And still support Ruto. It will be hard but not impossible.

But i think Ruto would have no need/desire to just spoil a guaranteed winning formula. Especially when, as of now, he is guaranteed Gema backing and hence 1st round win in 2022. It's only an Act of God that can deny Ruto Presidency in 2022.
sms wrote:
Wed Nov 22, 2017 8:43 pm
I think Ruto's deputy should come from any other tribe not okuyu. I dont care if the deputy is luo as long as that luo is not and will never be aliaR Ojinga.

Garlic
Level: Imperial Majesty
Posts: 2425
Joined: Sat Feb 01, 2014 5:08 am

Re: Does Baba Raila Have a Legit Point for Reforms?

Unread post by Garlic » Thu Nov 23, 2017 3:07 am

1. I don't believe Msando was murdered because of elections. How come one man, in ICT Department of the IEBC was the only one who would have made a difference whether rigging took place or not? You really don't know how voting is conducted. That is a conspiracy theory. Just as i have heard that he was murdered because he was a NASA mole within IEBC who somehow was guaranteeing 10m votes for Raila by manipulating IEBC servers.

2. Despite the current political arguments forget secession. It will not happen.. Ever. If you are ready to Fight and die. Then your kids fight and die. And then your grandchildren fight and die, then you are ready for secession. However secession talks and clamour have potential of always destabilizing the country.

3. And finally Yes, electoral system need to be looked at so as to make it more competitive where not necessarily majority tribes have a chance of being within the Presidency.
The irony of this argument in 2017 is that during Independence Daniel Arap Moi led KADU which opposed and feared being dominated by majority tribes then chiefly led by Kikuyu and Luos. Jaramogi and Kenyatta.
In 2017 Luos are now fighting for what Moi was during early Independence years. And Kalenjins are on the side of "majority..."

Tafakari hayo!


JahKikuyu wrote:
Wed Nov 22, 2017 3:20 pm

Garlic:
You raise some very pertinent issues with your post. Raila's apparent perpetual failure in his quest for the presidency arises partly from the reasons outlined above.

In addition to soul searching on the way out of this dilemna, we need to also address the issues that arose from the 2017 elections. It is commonly believed that (based also on the reasons above) Uhuruto could have won in the first round without resorting to the alleged murder of Msando and the subsequent underhand deals that gave Jubilee the constant 54 percent. These issues made 2017 nearly become a repeat of 2007.

Back to your post, the situation you describe (where Kale-kikuyu take the presidency in turns because of numerical superiority) is untenable for national unity. We have to device an electoral system where there appears to be fair representation. One way forward would be rotational presidency. Another way would be the electoral college system.

The calls for seceding that we have heard in 2017 will only get louder in the second term, especially if Uhuruto continue on their path of unchecked nepotism and corruption.

As you say, Raila's brand of mild/moderate confrontation might pale in comparison to some other firebrand that comes in later to represent the voices of the other Kenya that is shut out from leadership.

I seriously hope Uhuru/Ruto and their henchmen read your post. 2017 might be the beginning of the end of Kenya as a unitary state if we don't address this elephant in the room.

User avatar
vooke
Level: Council of the gods
Posts: 11205
Joined: Fri Feb 15, 2013 9:03 am
Location: Nairobbery

Re: Does Baba Raila Have a Legit Point for Reforms?

Unread post by vooke » Thu Nov 23, 2017 3:52 am

Garrulous Garlic,
What I’ve pondered is whether the proposed parliamentary system would outfox the RVGEMA juggernaut.
Supposing we switched to parliamentary and tribal coalitions crystallize in the House. What can’t they do?

To your point,
I think creating multiple positions without real power sharing is not going to help. If the tribal leaders squeezed into office to assuage the wrath of their constituents, it’ll only be for a short while before everyone sees them as basic political bitches. Nobody will want those positions

The other bit is Independence of Independent institutions. Subverting or perceived subversion of these is a main cause of grievances. No amount of new offices created will help so long as it is in place. A good example is withdrawing Baba’s security detail while he was still a candidate.
"No warrior entangleth himself with the affairs of this life; that he may please him who hath chosen him to be a soldier." (2 Timothy 2:4)..

Garlic
Level: Imperial Majesty
Posts: 2425
Joined: Sat Feb 01, 2014 5:08 am

Re: Does Baba Raila Have a Legit Point for Reforms?

Unread post by Garlic » Thu Nov 23, 2017 6:07 am

First lets dispose of the lie that Raila security was withdrawn. It wasn't. That was purely seeking sympathy votes. Btw, Kalonzo and Raila enjoys state provided security pursuant to law. Its not at the discretion of anyone. Maybe what they could complain of is when they want said security details enhanced. Now that would be at the discretion of IG and other security heads.

The rest i agree with you. Even parliamentary system my end up with same groups merging and doing worse. I just think its an issue which need serious thought and discussion within the country.
I Would also argue that we constitutionalize the Office of the Official Leader of the Opposition who enjoys say 70% pay of what the president earn. Plus other benefits. And that he should have a Shadow Cabinet paid for by the government to effectively check on the government.

True. Creating new positions is a temporary and ineffective measure. It would just get tribal kingpins into government but underlying structure remains.


vooke wrote:
Thu Nov 23, 2017 3:52 am
Garrulous Garlic,
What I’ve pondered is whether the proposed parliamentary system would outfox the RVGEMA juggernaut.
Supposing we switched to parliamentary and tribal coalitions crystallize in the House. What can’t they do?

To your point,
I think creating multiple positions without real power sharing is not going to help. If the tribal leaders squeezed into office to assuage the wrath of their constituents, it’ll only be for a short while before everyone sees them as basic political bitches. Nobody will want those positions

The other bit is Independence of Independent institutions. Subverting or perceived subversion of these is a main cause of grievances. No amount of new offices created will help so long as it is in place. A good example is withdrawing Baba’s security detail while he was still a candidate.

User avatar
Kalvin
Level: Lord Barons
Posts: 1260
Joined: Sun Oct 06, 2013 6:53 am

Re: Does Baba Raila Have a Legit Point for Reforms?

Unread post by Kalvin » Thu Nov 23, 2017 6:22 am

If you would just listen!

Your whole argument is predicated upon tribalism being the determining factor. That is JaKuon’s strategy; it is NOT the only strategy! The 2002 elections were about issues that concern wananchi. Nobody cared whether you ate fis or githeri for dinner. But when JaKuon introduced the 41-1 tribal arithmetic, most people aligned to him swallowed it whole and have never allowed themselves to think independently thereafter.

JaKuon is done, so should tribalism. The only hope Kenya has is to make tribe irrrelevant. You’d be surprised at how easy it would be if you gave other strategies a fair shake.
Garlic wrote:
Wed Nov 22, 2017 5:57 am
With the end of Supreme Court battle the electioneering period has come to an end. But since it has been an extraordinary period where Presidential Election was first annulled then held again. And one of the major coalition NASA boycotted the fresh election.

Now its a justifiable question to seriously enquire whether there were legitimate concerns by those who opposed the fresh election and all the hullabaloo they raised.

I think one of the argument which needs attention of policymakers and political analysts and others is the question/FEAR of being DOMINATED by Kale/Gema political alliance. It is obvious that there is NO WAY to beat that alliance at the polls. Gema on their own makes close to 38% of the VOTING population. This is based on registered voters AND TURNOUT during election..
Add Kalenjins who are one of the Big Three tribe in Kenya. And with Kalenjin you have a GATEWAY to pastoralist communities from Maasai, Samburu, Somalis, Turkanas and others..

That means it the ONLY political alliance assured of 50+1 in the FIRST round as per the 2010 Constitution. Therefore Kale/Gema have, and will, dominate the Kenyan PRESIDENCY for the foreseeable future. And this is what is at the HEART of "others" feeling of being dominated. Then somebody like Raila has weaponized ethnicity and thereby bringing about almost ethnic based clashes.

Raila's methods of agitation aside, there seem to me that such a system of government/election outcome will forever be a source of friction in Kenya. Maybe in future we may get a more fearsome and radical nut than Raila is and who will take such issues to higher level of confrontation.

The question is: IS it OKAY in Kenya that other tribes/communities resign themselves to the fact that the Presidency of Kenya will always be shared between Kalenjins and Gema?

My two cent rumbling.

Post Reply

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Bing [Bot], Google [Bot], Google Adsense [Bot], Sky, Yahoo [Bot] and 4 guests