Is sudan headed for full scale war?

Regional & GeoPolitical Issues
ole Nkarei
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Re: Is sudan headed for full scale war?

Unread post by ole Nkarei » Sun Sep 05, 2010 2:13 pm

Sudan 2O11 is not that of six years ago. First of all the SPLA never won the Military Argument in this conflict, lacking any substantial depth in all aspects to do so, and instead being restricted to a brutal attrition war more destructive of her people and country than the North. The North simply lost the Moral Argument, and thus lost the stomach for continued conflict. Matters were further hurried by the second-front conflict in the Darfur that Uncle Sam nurtured but soon lost control of. In the aftermath of the CPA, the oil has gushed and re-armed and re-structured the Military of the North as well as cushioned against unrest & disaffection of the North Govt. GoSS has in the same period been justifiably preoccupied with managing expectations of their people from the CPA, thro social programs. Little has gone into the Military comparatively. All this talk of renewed conflict is just hot-air as GoSS has neither the Military + Financial means nor the Social Will to restart open War. It is for this reason that the CPA was under-written by IGAD and particularly Kenya. Certainly there are reactionary forces in the North working to sabotage the CPA, and this isn't suprising in the circumstances. But a critical mass exists both within the Sudan and around it to carry the process thro. Engaging there elements therefore in the run-up to the referendum assumes greater local importance than to appease some UN commission that selectively interprets it's mandate.
''Energy and Rapidity in Combat'' Lt.Gen George S. Patton - GOC-3rd USArmy WWII-1944

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Olekoima
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Re: Is sudan headed for full scale war?

Unread post by Olekoima » Sat Sep 18, 2010 2:47 am

Yes the threat of war is very real especially as we know that the Arab North will try to place obstacles along the way if only to delay the referendum process.
However regional governments are alive to this trick and are already pressurizing Bashir to avoid playing games. Kenya, Ethiopia, Uganda and others will not
allow Bashir to cause a senseless war that will disrupt their growing economies. Bashir's recent visit to Nairobi to attend the promulgation ceremony was not
in vain after all. It is for this reason that the rest of the world should leave us alone to handle our foreign affairs in line with our own interests.
All said, we MUST nevertheless prepare for any eventuality in the event that things do not go as we expect. Voter registration is already behind schedule in
the Sudan and this is one cause for worry( given that there are less than 4 months to go before the referendum).

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article36311

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Olekoima
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Joined: Sun Sep 05, 2010 2:49 am
Location: Namanga Border Point

Re: Is sudan headed for full scale war?

Unread post by Olekoima » Sat Sep 18, 2010 3:26 am


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