the Nile Water wars...

Regional & GeoPolitical Issues
ole Nkarei
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Re: the Nile Water wars...

Unread post by ole Nkarei » Thu Sep 16, 2010 10:27 pm

This is an ole topic that we debated in the nairobichronicle awhile back. This issue has been picked up in our Defence Schools and G2 circles at kDoD and ventilated every-which-way. Some of the recent procurement movements now becoming visible were derivations of there studies, essentially how the Misri dilemma impacts on the GeoPolitical realities fast evolving in what we have come to consider as our sphere of vital national interests into the future. So has been our driving this integration thing for the part 1O years, which in truth inform Misri's reactions as well as those of her western backer - all are assessing and readjusting their previous strategic national postures and planning in reaction to what now seems to be a fait accomplis integrated Centre-of-Africa back-boned on the expanding EAC. salient facts are that Middle East is on a trajectory of decline as their Oil- same deplete and global demand for these hydro-carbons exponentially grows. In truth one can see the push to finally settle the Palestine Question which all parties seem to acquiesce to, and the Western Powers House-keeping moves on a strategic conflict they deliberatly created 6O YEARS AGO, in readiness to shift their vital focus away from the M.E. The destruction of Iraq and the present resurgence of Iran as the "Alfa-male" in the M. E and Western reactions to this, are all integral to this evolving mosaic. In what Vitruvian aptly christened "Kenyana" lies incredible depths of richesse in both raw materiel and consumer-markets for which amorous eyes of the West are cast. In this mix, Misri has no relevance both in the eyes of her former seducers nor of the brethren that she has scorned and abused for centuries. Consequently, and despite her impressive military armament, notwithstanding the shameful fact of never ever having used this to effect against anyone, and the difficulties of logistics of waging war over the Nile Waters, Misri will take what we give her, hoping on our magnanimity and the persuasion of her soon-to-be former seducers. That is the bottom line.
''Energy and Rapidity in Combat'' Lt.Gen George S. Patton - GOC-3rd USArmy WWII-1944

ole Nkarei
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Re: the Nile Water wars...

Unread post by ole Nkarei » Fri Sep 17, 2010 10:21 am

Simply that "your enemy's enemy is your ally". Last time i checked, Misri had 15OO first-line MBT's all tasked Eastwards. No matter that these chaps have never distinguished themselves on the battlefield since the Negro-pharaohs ruled the mediterranean world, such a Armoured Force acquires horror proportions for Israel when considered side by side with a radicalised Saudi Arabia and emergent Iran. Israel have mastered the art of playing nations against each other, creating discord between states that saps national energies that otherwise would be brought to bear on Israel. Her success is enviable that despite all efforts, the Arabs have never achieved common strategy vide Israel. The changing Geopolitical realities of this region haven't escaped the notice of the Israelis, and as points of their advantage crop up such as the changed fortunes of Misri and shift of the balance of morality in the question of the Nile Waters. Israel considered such opportunities to confound their mortal enemies surely god-sent. And on this occasion too they have engaged their imaginations completely. But we know so too - this isn't the rescue in kampala days.
''Energy and Rapidity in Combat'' Lt.Gen George S. Patton - GOC-3rd USArmy WWII-1944

Vitruvian
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Re: the Nile Water wars...

Unread post by Vitruvian » Fri Sep 17, 2010 1:59 pm

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Last edited by Vitruvian on Thu Sep 30, 2010 7:08 am, edited 1 time in total.

Tornado
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Re: the Nile Water wars...

Unread post by Tornado » Fri Sep 17, 2010 5:56 pm

http://www.lake-victoria.info/page/158.html
This article in 2006 shows the efforts kenya is making towards using this water resource
I am not sure if the funding for this was ever increased after the 2007 fiasco.

On a global scale Egypt is better of changing from the current status as an Arab state and begin to market itself as an African state...then we can start to negotiate on equal terms about these Nile waters.

Through out history Arabs have never been kind to Africans and you can ask yourself what happened to all the african slaves who were shipped to work in Arab lands in the early centuries?you can see by the numbers of surviving Africans that such effort was put to make sure that they not multliplying...unlike the ones who went to the Americas and west Indies.

At least we can see the descendants of all the slaves who went to the AMERICAS so the point is we are better of making sure that we are strong and ready to fight for our rights than let these selfish Arabs dictate our very own survival,and the treaty that gave us no say on these waters is a grave injustice to our case.

I hope am not being racist but only trying to explain my own historical perspective...and am sorry if any one finds these remarks offensive.my views are not conclusive.BUT if my remarks here offend anyone i hereby ask blog admin to remove them.

The visit by Lieberman to East Africa is very suspect remember this a very hard line and uncompromising no nonsense man who sees his priority as the state of Israel.WHILE i support his stance on this , am only worried that recent events indicate that to him other people have no rights of their own in so far they conflict with those of the Israelis and... therein lies the problem.the world is too changed to be looked at this way.You saw how much Israel was demonized when they attacked the aid flotila to the Gaza strip.That single event has caused them too much damage. and they yet to recover.it was a bad mistake.

Therefore the Israelis are another matter. and Do you see how they have changed the focus of the middle east by the world powers to think of and only focus on Islamic terrorism so that they have caused the Americans to destroy a whole country of Iraq yet the problem originally was between the Israelis and Palestinians?The inspiration to attack The Americans by the ALQAIDA terrorists world wide stems from its support of Israel at all costs and this is never ending soon and we Kenyans suffered too in 1998 for this.WE are now facing the same threats from these thugs in Somalia.

This has ensured that the Americans have now build the largest foreign embassy in the world in Baghdad..it is even bigger than the whole of the VATICAN which is a state by itself.WHY? you guys tell me.

http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribun ... _04_18.asp

Therefore for the Nile waters issue and the Alshabab problem should be dealt with very decisively now when we have the means to do so and the international goodwill to do so and also ensure that we have a good foreign policy position that strongly advocates our rights and position..AND to be honest an not sure Hon minister for Kenyas foreign affairs WETANGULA knows what he is doing.
His remarks at UN yesterday were too shallow and left too much room for speculation and at best poorly researched.
AMEN may gob bless KENYANA.

ole Nkarei
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Re: the Nile Water wars...

Unread post by ole Nkarei » Sat Sep 18, 2010 2:28 am

8-) indeed I unreservedly concur with you, brother Nairobipundit. Moi was simply doing what he was good doing, and that is playing the good-old-western lackey jumping thro the hoops in an ape-dance of Western real-politics. Do you recall that period was particularly critical to the redefinition of the US middle-east policy impelled by unprecedented changes in the entire M E geopolitics, and that Misri - their ever reluctant Camp-DAVID Partner, was begining to falter under the collective weight of arab censure? And that soon after Moi did his puppet-dance on the "Nile Waters irrigation project", Misri hastily re-engaged in the US-driven talks with Israel that effectively permanently removed Misri from "am Arab position on the question of Israel. Misri has europeanised itself until it's Arab and African Identity has varnished to a misty imagination. The unconditional yearly USD1BILLION military aid (the only concession Misri wrung out of Camp David and equal to that received annually by Israel!!) and three times that in Budgetary Support plus free unencumbered access to the E U on Trade + Culture and Misri ingrained desire to be seen as more than Arabic /African - as in the same light as so eloquently portrayed by Vitruvian above, amongst others, are the Cause of this. In early military studies classes, It was sickening for me to learn of the extent of this repeated perfidy of our african politico-class that so easily consented to to these real-politics games of western and soviet governments, like hapless mindless pawns, despite showing nothing for it. It led me to study more on the structures of Governance implanted on Independence Governments and their contribution to the generalised failure of these governments to move their nations beyond the point that the colonialists cut them loose at "INDEPENDENCE". But be encouraged that their some pretty well 'switched-on' chaps running things at our Intel Outfits this time around, guys!
''Energy and Rapidity in Combat'' Lt.Gen George S. Patton - GOC-3rd USArmy WWII-1944

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SPIDERman
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Re: the Nile Water wars...

Unread post by SPIDERman » Sat Sep 18, 2010 4:10 am

nairobipundit wrote:If my memory serves me right, there was a time in the mid 90's when in the Daily Nation, it was said that Moi wanted to build a huge pipeline from L. Victoria to North Eastern(similar to what we have in Libya) to pipe the h20 for irrigation and other uses. There was even a huge illustration to thet effect(please dont ask me for references)

Fast forward to 2010. I tend to think that that was propaganda given that such a project would need more than $10 billion. or what does anyone think
Former president Moi was enticed and persuaded to drop the idea of massive use of lake Victoria waters for irrigation purposes when he was offered financing for the Turkwell Gorge hydroelectric Poject.

http://wikimapia.org/#lat=1.8997716&lon ... 15&l=0&m=b

Although the kenyan public have never appreciated this..the Turkwell project is a massive and impressive piece of engineering that only a visit there will make one realize the size of this dam.
Before that he had even set up a study to make Kenya the first eastern and central African state to design and build the first nuclear power station somewhere in the northern rift valley.
A number of very smart Kenyans were even offered scholarships to the Usa .

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Olekoima
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Re: the Nile Water wars...

Unread post by Olekoima » Sat Sep 18, 2010 5:38 am

I do not foresee a war over the Nile waters any time soon especially if this war is to be waged by Egypt. Despite her impressive military credentials as compared to all Nile basin countries put together, Egypt still cannot win this war. All odds are against her. In addition Egypt has an international image and clout to protect. This clout and image might suffer an irreparable damage in case of war.Frankly speaking, Egypt is operating from a point of weakness in this issue and she knows this. An attempt to intimidate the other countries on account of military superiority can only backfire and indeed very badly. After all Ethiopia has already called their bluff by going a head to construct a dam in the same Nile, so what has been the consequence? We are yet to see the Egyptian threat of sending fighter jets to Ethiopia to actively bomb and obliterate the offending dam. What is more, the other Nile basin countries are watching with glee and taking notes for future use and as sure as day follows night,will copy the Ethiopian example.
The only real option for Egypt therefore is to negotiate and attempt to extract as much as possible from the other Nile members using diplomacy. War threats and bullying won't do.

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Re: the Nile Water wars...

Unread post by mwaura » Sat Sep 18, 2010 5:44 am

Former president Moi was enticed and persuaded to drop the idea of massive use of lake Victoria waters for irrigation purposes when he was offered financing for the Turkwell Gorge hydroelectric Poject.

http://wikimapia.org/#lat=1.8997716&lon ... 15&l=0&m=b

Although the kenyan public have never appreciated this..the Turkwell project is a massive and impressive piece of engineering that only a visit there will make one realize the size of this dam.
Before that he had even set up a study to make Kenya the first eastern and central African state to design and build the first nuclear power station somewhere in the northern rift valley.
A number of very smart Kenyans were even offered scholarships to the Usa
Ohhh wowww! I first heard the nuclear power story in 2000 researching the then dramatic power rationing-remember,guys? I think it was Ratiemo Michieka, not sure though I'm sure it was a Kisii who was tasked with first ascertaining if we has competent techninians and engineers-he found there were enough;mind you this was 1982.
Thats as far as the project went. Sometimes its quite sad knowing where we could be if only.......
I've heard Egyptians are/were training alshabaab/alqaeda in Somalia to get the Ethios bogged down as part of their shortsighted 'control the Nile' at all costs policy-any truth in this?

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Olekoima
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Re: the Nile Water wars...

Unread post by Olekoima » Sat Sep 18, 2010 6:19 am

mwaura wrote:
Former president Moi was enticed and persuaded to drop the idea of massive use of lake Victoria waters for irrigation purposes when he was offered financing for the Turkwell Gorge hydroelectric Poject.

http://wikimapia.org/#lat=1.8997716&lon ... 15&l=0&m=b

Although the kenyan public have never appreciated this..the Turkwell project is a massive and impressive piece of engineering that only a visit there will make one realize the size of this dam.
Before that he had even set up a study to make Kenya the first eastern and central African state to design and build the first nuclear power station somewhere in the northern rift valley.
A number of very smart Kenyans were even offered scholarships to the Usa
Ohhh wowww! I first heard the nuclear power story in 2000 researching the then dramatic power rationing-remember,guys? I think it was Ratiemo Michieka, not sure though I'm sure it was a Kisii who was tasked with first ascertaining if we has competent techninians and engineers-he found there were enough;mind you this was 1982.
Thats as far as the project went. Sometimes its quite sad knowing where we could be if only.......
I've heard Egyptians are/were training alshabaab/alqaeda in Somalia to get the Ethios bogged down as part of their shortsighted 'control the Nile' at all costs policy-any truth in this?

The nuclear energy story is back in the news again. I hope this time it is for real.
If the Egyptians want to bog down the Ethiopians in this manner then they will have to do the same for all the Nile basin countries. That will be a real undertaking and will not go unnoticed as well. It can only turn bad for them.

ole Nkarei
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Re: the Nile Water wars...

Unread post by ole Nkarei » Sat Sep 18, 2010 11:40 am

8-) Morality may be utilised to explain their postures on strategic national considerations, but is technically not the basis for such. GWB has slaughtered 3OO,OOO Iraqis for Oil and Markets, and used all moral arguments to justify this slaughter. Misri is justified in her reactive use of all means available to her including al-shabbab. Hell, we have been doing the same in somalia and other places for three decades! In my view, I don't consider that our strategic National Interests are in convergence with those of others states around us. And where they touch it is really transient and shallow. To navigate these confusing seething seas with conflicting national interests where yesterday's friends are today's mortal , our focus must imperiously stay riveted on OUR STRATEGIC NATIONAL INTERESTS. If it works for us, we night have to assist Misri destroy that Ethiopian Dam or invade and destroy Uganda in alliance with Misri! Or just as well gang up with the other Nile States and gang-beat Misri! This feel-good brotherhood beyond Kenya is socio-politico value only, and others are paid to worry about that. Kenya First and Only!
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Olekoima
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Re: the Nile Water wars...

Unread post by Olekoima » Sun Sep 19, 2010 6:57 am

ole Nkarei wrote:8-) Morality may be utilised to explain their postures on strategic national considerations, but is technically not the basis for such. GWB has slaughtered 3OO,OOO Iraqis for Oil and Markets, and used all moral arguments to justify this slaughter. Misri is justified in her reactive use of all means available to her including al-shabbab. Hell, we have been doing the same in somalia and other places for three decades! In my view, I don't consider that our strategic National Interests are in convergence with those of others states around us. And where they touch it is really transient and shallow. To navigate these confusing seething seas with conflicting national interests where yesterday's friends are today's mortal , our focus must imperiously stay riveted on OUR STRATEGIC NATIONAL INTERESTS. If it works for us, we night have to assist Misri destroy that Ethiopian Dam or invade and destroy Uganda in alliance with Misri! Or just as well gang up with the other Nile States and gang-beat Misri! This feel-good brotherhood beyond Kenya is socio-politico value only, and others are paid to worry about that. Kenya First and Only!
In other words nothing is impossible as long as our interests are taken care of.Amazing what risks one can take to protect own interests.

ole Nkarei
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Re: the Nile Water wars...

Unread post by ole Nkarei » Sun Sep 19, 2010 10:47 am

Alright, olekoima, I acknowledge I sound very cold. But am very concerned that Kenya's renaissance not be swallowed by all the sentimental pan-african romance in anticipating possible Military conflicts resulting from this renaissance - and there will be on shortage of these in the future. Whatever accomodations we make with whoever must be those that serve us best and first. Tis not my job to preach the goodness of man and salvation - I know as much of this as the next dude, honestly.
''Energy and Rapidity in Combat'' Lt.Gen George S. Patton - GOC-3rd USArmy WWII-1944

Vitruvian
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Re: the Nile Water wars...

Unread post by Vitruvian » Sun Sep 19, 2010 2:20 pm

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ole Nkarei
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Re: the Nile Water wars...

Unread post by ole Nkarei » Sun Sep 19, 2010 8:06 pm

:D Vitruvian. Your imagery is stunningly appropriate, and illuminates this subject quite well. I reckon we are of identical view on 1. There being a dog-leash, leashed dogs and a brutish handler. 2. Particular need to form a critical-mass hunting pack with Kenya as the Alfa Male - that's already far into actualisation as we debate - strange goings-on currently in the US with Kibaki's visit! 3. The pack challenges the hegemony of the handler, for the same richesse we ourselves are panting and plotting over, and whose responses we can only speculate on as we move decisely but cautiously along - there are several disparite but credible options available to the handler. But the primary focus must remain our articulating our strategic national interests, for which we form the pack. In this pack there are clear short-term compromises of convenience between the dogs, probably some manipulated by the handler, as the dogs also jockey around for space and advantage to push their own national agendas. Pack hunting ain't brotherhood, just that in it each dog actualises advantages specific to each dog. Competition within the Pack is just as brutal albeit controlled and moderated by a committment to the Pack. So that as relationships within the Pack ebb and flow - as indeed they will, its shape also changes. If for instance UG grows strong enough (as indeed she will) on the sale of her hydrocarbons, to challenge for the Alfa Male, do you expect we should roll over without a whimper, present our rear-end (staying faithful to the pack dogs allegory!) to UG, and trash all our growth aspirations (of progenity) for which we formed and ruled the Pack, and that are verily dependant on our domination of the Pack? Hell No! And the handler (and Misri?) will be circling around, aggressively probing for just such weaknesses in the Pack. We must not lose sight of the primary justifications for forming and running with this Kenyana Pack, our National Interests, which may not always be in tandem with those specific to the other dogs in the Pack. As concerns the chihuahua - it is annoying loud poodle, spoilt and pampered. In the Pack lies it's strategic safety. And it's future relevance - the tall thin man is acutely conscious of this fact.. May I request use of my call-sign pls? I write here in my T-shirt and jeans, guys, if you know what I mean. Tafadhali-ni ndugu.
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Vitruvian
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Re: the Nile Water wars...

Unread post by Vitruvian » Mon Sep 20, 2010 12:16 am

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